IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Arizona
Pac-12
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+11.0	#38
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.8	#121
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.2	#51

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.8	#35

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%
#1 Seed	2.8%	2.8%	0.3%
Top 2 Seed	6.4%	6.5%	1.2%
Top 4 Seed	14.0%	14.3%	3.0%
Top 6 Seed	22.7%	23.2%	5.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid	56.9%	57.7%	29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	52.4%	53.2%	26.2%
Average Seed	7.1	7.1	8.6

.500 or above	84.9%	85.6%	60.5%
.500 or above in Conference	65.8%	66.5%	43.6%
Conference Champion	10.9%	11.1%	2.5%
Last Place in Conference	3.3%	3.2%	7.3%

First Four	4.0%	4.0%	2.6%
First Round	54.7%	55.5%	27.8%
Second Round	33.2%	33.8%	14.3%
Sweet Sixteen	15.0%	15.4%	3.9%
Elite Eight	7.0%	7.2%	1.6%
Final Four	3.1%	3.1%	0.1%
Championship Game	1.4%	1.5%	0.0%
National Champion	0.7%	0.7%	0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 4	1 - 4
Quad 1b	2 - 2	3 - 7
Quad 2	4 - 3	8 - 9
Quad 3	5 - 1	13 - 10
Quad 4	6 - 0	19 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	266	Northern Arizona	W	82-62	97%
Nov 27, 2020	316	Grambling St.	W	83-59	99%
Nov 29, 2020	161	UTEP	W	77-63	90%
Dec 02, 2020	50	Colorado	W	74-70	65%
Dec 05, 2020	166	Northern Colorado	W	76-62	90%
Dec 09, 2020	214	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	77-59	95%
Dec 16, 2020	271	California Baptist	W	86-66	96%
Dec 19, 2020	31	@ Stanford	L	69-73	37%
Dec 22, 2020	140	Montana	W	79-66	87%
Mar 08, 2021	68	@ Washington	L	73-74	49%
Mar 08, 2021	129	@ Washington St.	W	79-73	70%
Mar 08, 2021	27	UCLA	W	71-70	53%
Mar 08, 2021	57	USC	W	76-71	65%
Mar 08, 2021	21	@ Oregon	L	68-74	31%
Mar 08, 2021	115	@ Oregon St.	W	73-69	64%
Mar 08, 2021	25	@ Arizona St.	L	77-82	33%
Mar 08, 2021	107	California	W	74-64	78%
Mar 08, 2021	31	Stanford	W	72-70	57%
Mar 08, 2021	50	@ Colorado	L	71-73	44%
Mar 08, 2021	67	@ Utah	L	72-73	48%
Mar 09, 2021	21	Oregon	W	72-71	50%
Mar 09, 2021	115	Oregon St.	W	76-66	79%
Mar 09, 2021	27	@ UCLA	L	68-73	34%
Mar 09, 2021	57	@ USC	L	73-74	45%
Mar 09, 2021	68	Washington	W	77-71	67%
Mar 09, 2021	129	Washington St.	W	82-70	83%
Mar 09, 2021	25	Arizona St.	W	80-79	52%
Projected Record						18 - 9	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.7	1.8	2.7	2.7	1.8	0.8	0.3		10.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.2	2.8	3.4	2.2	0.6	0.1	0.0			10.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	1.6	4.2	3.3	1.2	0.2	0.0					10.8	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	2.0	4.5	3.3	1.0	0.1	0.0						11.3	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	2.1	4.1	3.2	0.7	0.1								10.5	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	2.2	4.4	3.1	0.6	0.0									10.6	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	1.7	3.8	2.8	0.6	0.1										9.3	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	1.7	3.4	2.5	0.5	0.0											8.4	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	1.6	2.7	2.0	0.4	0.0												7.1	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.4	1.3	2.0	1.2	0.3	0.0													5.3	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.1	0.7	0.2															3.5	11th
12th	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.0																1.8	12th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.8	3.1	4.5	6.0	7.7	9.3	10.3	10.1	10.2	9.7	7.8	6.4	5.2	3.3	1.9	0.8	0.3			Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
19-1	99.0%	0.8		0.8	0.0
18-2	95.1%	1.8		1.6	0.2
17-3	82.2%	2.7		2.1	0.6	0.0
16-4	53.0%	2.7		1.5	1.1	0.2	0.0
15-5	27.6%	1.8		0.6	0.8	0.3	0.0
14-6	8.4%	0.7		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	10.9%	10.9		7.0	2.9	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.3%		100.0%	60.4%	39.6%	1.3		0.2	0.1																	100.0%
19-1	0.8%		100.0%	47.0%	53.0%	1.4		0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0															100.0%
18-2	1.9%		100.0%	44.9%	55.1%	1.7		0.9	0.7	0.3	0.0															100.0%
17-3	3.3%		100.0%	36.4%	63.6%	2.4		0.7	1.3	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
16-4	5.2%		100.0%	25.0%	75.0%	3.6		0.3	0.9	1.3	1.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0										100.0%
15-5	6.4%		99.6%	22.4%	77.3%	5.0		0.1	0.4	0.8	1.4	1.6	1.0	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.5%
14-6	7.8%		99.3%	18.0%	81.3%	6.5		0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	1.4	1.4	1.6	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.1		99.1%
13-7	9.7%		96.3%	11.1%	85.2%	7.9			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.0	1.9	2.2	1.9	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.4		95.9%
12-8	10.2%		89.3%	6.9%	82.4%	9.1					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.7	2.2	2.1	1.3	0.4	0.0	0.0			1.1		88.5%
11-9	10.1%		68.5%	4.8%	63.7%	10.1						0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.3	1.9	1.8	1.0	0.1				3.2		66.9%
10-10	10.3%		43.3%	1.9%	41.4%	10.8							0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.9	1.6	1.1	0.2	0.0			5.8		42.2%
9-11	9.3%		13.5%	2.1%	11.5%	11.5									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0			8.0		11.7%
8-12	7.7%		3.6%	1.3%	2.3%	12.1											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0			7.4		2.3%
7-13	6.0%		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	11.8											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			6.0		0.0%
6-14	4.5%		0.2%	0.2%		14.1															0.0	0.0		4.5
5-15	3.1%																							3.1
4-16	1.8%																							1.8
3-17	1.0%																							1.0
2-18	0.5%																							0.5
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		56.9%	9.6%	47.4%	7.1		2.8	3.6	3.4	4.1	4.5	4.2	5.5	6.3	6.7	6.2	5.5	3.3	0.5	0.1	0.0		43.1		52.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	1.3	68.9	31.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	1.1	86.6	13.4