Preseason Rankings
California
Pac-12
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#107
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.0#310
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#124
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.7% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 2.8% 4.1% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 18.3% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.5% 16.7% 6.1%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 9.0
.500 or above 25.1% 34.3% 15.3%
.500 or above in Conference 22.6% 28.0% 17.0%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.7% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 22.6% 17.4% 28.0%
First Four2.2% 3.1% 1.3%
First Round11.6% 16.6% 6.4%
Second Round5.6% 8.1% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.6% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Neutral) - 51.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 9
Quad 23 - 55 - 14
Quad 34 - 29 - 16
Quad 42 - 010 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 112   Colorado St. W 73-72 51%    
  Nov 30, 2020 234   Nicholls St. W 76-64 86%    
  Dec 03, 2020 25   Arizona St. L 72-78 30%    
  Dec 06, 2020 27   @ UCLA L 61-73 15%    
  Dec 09, 2020 108   @ Pepperdine L 72-75 39%    
  Dec 13, 2020 91   San Francisco W 70-69 55%    
  Dec 22, 2020 101   @ Boston College L 68-71 39%    
  Mar 08, 2021 21   @ Oregon L 61-74 14%    
  Mar 08, 2021 115   @ Oregon St. L 66-68 42%    
  Mar 08, 2021 68   Washington L 69-70 46%    
  Mar 08, 2021 129   Washington St. W 74-69 68%    
  Mar 08, 2021 50   @ Colorado L 64-72 24%    
  Mar 08, 2021 67   @ Utah L 65-72 28%    
  Mar 08, 2021 27   UCLA L 64-70 32%    
  Mar 08, 2021 57   USC L 68-70 43%    
  Mar 08, 2021 38   @ Arizona L 64-74 22%    
  Mar 08, 2021 25   @ Arizona St. L 69-81 16%    
  Mar 08, 2021 31   Stanford L 65-69 36%    
  Mar 09, 2021 50   Colorado L 67-69 42%    
  Mar 09, 2021 67   Utah L 68-69 46%    
  Mar 09, 2021 68   @ Washington L 66-73 29%    
  Mar 09, 2021 129   @ Washington St. L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 09, 2021 21   Oregon L 64-71 30%    
  Mar 09, 2021 115   Oregon St. W 69-65 61%    
  Mar 09, 2021 31   @ Stanford L 62-72 20%    
Projected Record 10 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 4.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 12.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.5 4.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 14.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.2 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 16.4 11th
12th 1.1 2.8 4.3 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 15.5 12th
Total 1.1 3.0 5.4 7.7 9.2 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.0 8.7 6.9 5.3 3.9 3.0 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 98.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 83.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 64.1% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 44.7% 55.3% 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.0% 99.9% 15.5% 84.4% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 1.6% 98.1% 11.1% 87.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
13-7 3.0% 86.4% 6.3% 80.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 85.5%
12-8 3.9% 70.6% 5.7% 64.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 68.8%
11-9 5.3% 45.9% 2.9% 43.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 44.3%
10-10 6.9% 17.0% 1.4% 15.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.8 15.8%
9-11 8.7% 3.0% 1.1% 1.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 1.9%
8-12 10.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 0.2%
7-13 10.7% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7
6-14 10.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
5-15 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
4-16 9.2% 9.2
3-17 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
2-18 5.4% 5.4
1-19 3.0% 3.0
0-20 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 12.8% 1.4% 11.4% 8.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 87.2 11.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%