Preseason Rankings
UCLA
Pac-12
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#27
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.8#313
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 2.6% 0.6%
#1 Seed 6.7% 10.6% 3.5%
Top 2 Seed 14.0% 21.2% 8.2%
Top 4 Seed 27.3% 38.3% 18.6%
Top 6 Seed 40.6% 53.4% 30.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.7% 83.0% 62.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.5% 79.0% 57.2%
Average Seed 5.9 5.3 6.6
.500 or above 84.6% 92.8% 78.1%
.500 or above in Conference 79.7% 86.1% 74.7%
Conference Champion 19.6% 25.4% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.7% 2.1%
First Four3.3% 2.7% 3.9%
First Round69.8% 81.5% 60.5%
Second Round47.9% 59.2% 38.9%
Sweet Sixteen25.2% 33.1% 19.0%
Elite Eight12.7% 17.3% 9.0%
Final Four6.4% 8.9% 4.3%
Championship Game3.1% 4.9% 1.7%
National Champion1.4% 2.2% 0.7%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 44.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 26 - 210 - 9
Quad 36 - 116 - 10
Quad 43 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 36   @ San Diego St. L 66-67 44%    
  Nov 27, 2020 108   Pepperdine W 80-71 78%    
  Nov 30, 2020 228   Long Beach St. W 83-63 97%    
  Dec 03, 2020 286   Seattle W 83-60 98%    
  Dec 06, 2020 107   California W 73-61 85%    
  Dec 09, 2020 159   San Diego W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 11, 2020 45   Marquette W 76-70 69%    
  Dec 19, 2020 11   Kentucky L 69-71 41%    
  Dec 23, 2020 21   @ Oregon L 66-70 36%    
  Mar 08, 2021 50   Colorado W 72-66 71%    
  Mar 08, 2021 67   Utah W 74-66 74%    
  Mar 08, 2021 38   @ Arizona L 70-71 47%    
  Mar 08, 2021 25   @ Arizona St. L 75-78 39%    
  Mar 08, 2021 68   Washington W 75-67 74%    
  Mar 08, 2021 129   Washington St. W 79-65 88%    
  Mar 08, 2021 107   @ California W 70-64 68%    
  Mar 08, 2021 31   @ Stanford L 67-69 44%    
  Mar 08, 2021 21   Oregon W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 08, 2021 115   Oregon St. W 74-62 84%    
  Mar 08, 2021 57   @ USC W 71-70 52%    
  Mar 09, 2021 68   @ Washington W 72-70 55%    
  Mar 09, 2021 129   @ Washington St. W 76-68 75%    
  Mar 09, 2021 38   Arizona W 73-68 66%    
  Mar 09, 2021 25   Arizona St. W 78-75 60%    
  Mar 09, 2021 50   @ Colorado W 70-69 51%    
  Mar 09, 2021 67   @ Utah W 71-69 55%    
  Mar 09, 2021 57   USC W 74-67 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.5 4.5 5.0 4.0 2.0 0.6 19.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 4.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.5 4.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.7 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 3.9 3.4 1.0 0.1 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.2 3.6 5.0 6.3 7.9 9.1 10.8 10.9 10.6 9.5 7.9 6.2 4.2 2.0 0.6 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 99.6% 2.0    1.9 0.1
18-2 95.4% 4.0    3.5 0.5 0.0
17-3 80.5% 5.0    3.7 1.3 0.1
16-4 56.5% 4.5    2.4 1.7 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.4% 2.5    0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0
14-6 8.4% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 13.1 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 100.0% 60.1% 39.9% 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.0% 100.0% 54.2% 45.8% 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 100.0%
18-2 4.2% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.6 2.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.2% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 2.3 1.8 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.9% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 3.2 0.7 2.0 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.5% 99.7% 23.0% 76.7% 4.5 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.2 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 10.6% 99.4% 17.4% 82.0% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
13-7 10.9% 97.0% 13.7% 83.3% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 96.5%
12-8 10.8% 87.2% 9.0% 78.2% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 86.0%
11-9 9.1% 69.1% 5.6% 63.6% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.8 67.3%
10-10 7.9% 43.8% 3.3% 40.5% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.5 41.9%
9-11 6.3% 12.8% 1.6% 11.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.5 11.3%
8-12 5.0% 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 1.2%
7-13 3.6% 2.3% 2.1% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.3%
6-14 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 71.7% 15.5% 56.2% 5.9 6.7 7.3 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.8 7.0 6.2 5.7 4.8 3.8 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 28.3 66.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 91.2 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 96.3 3.7