IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Oregon
Pac-12
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+13.9	#21
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.8	#316
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+8.6	#8

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.3	#47

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.1%	2.3%	0.3%
#1 Seed	8.9%	9.5%	2.7%
Top 2 Seed	17.6%	18.6%	5.4%
Top 4 Seed	32.8%	34.4%	13.9%
Top 6 Seed	46.3%	48.1%	24.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	73.2%	75.1%	51.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	66.9%	69.0%	44.4%
Average Seed	5.5	5.4	6.8

.500 or above	84.2%	85.9%	64.7%
.500 or above in Conference	82.6%	83.8%	68.5%
Conference Champion	23.9%	24.8%	12.3%
Last Place in Conference	1.3%	1.1%	2.9%

First Four	3.7%	3.6%	4.7%
First Round	71.4%	73.3%	49.3%
Second Round	51.9%	53.8%	29.9%
Sweet Sixteen	29.5%	30.7%	14.7%
Elite Eight	15.8%	16.6%	6.9%
Final Four	8.2%	8.7%	2.7%
Championship Game	4.2%	4.4%	1.4%
National Champion	2.0%	2.1%	0.5%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 92.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 3	2 - 3
Quad 1b	3 - 2	4 - 5
Quad 2	5 - 2	10 - 7
Quad 3	5 - 1	15 - 8
Quad 4	1 - 0	16 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	132	Eastern Washington	W	84-69	92%
Dec 02, 2020	101	Boston College	W	76-67	80%
Dec 12, 2020	68	@ Washington	W	73-70	59%
Dec 23, 2020	27	UCLA	W	70-66	64%
Mar 08, 2021	107	California	W	74-61	86%
Mar 08, 2021	31	Stanford	W	71-66	67%
Mar 08, 2021	50	@ Colorado	W	70-69	54%
Mar 08, 2021	67	@ Utah	W	71-69	58%
Mar 08, 2021	38	Arizona	W	74-68	69%
Mar 08, 2021	25	Arizona St.	W	79-75	61%
Mar 08, 2021	115	Oregon St.	W	75-62	86%
Mar 08, 2021	27	@ UCLA	L	67-69	43%
Mar 08, 2021	57	@ USC	W	71-70	55%
Mar 08, 2021	68	Washington	W	76-67	76%
Mar 08, 2021	129	Washington St.	W	80-65	89%
Mar 09, 2021	38	@ Arizona	L	71-72	50%
Mar 09, 2021	25	@ Arizona St.	L	76-78	43%
Mar 09, 2021	50	Colorado	W	73-66	72%
Mar 09, 2021	67	Utah	W	74-66	75%
Mar 09, 2021	107	@ California	W	71-64	70%
Mar 09, 2021	31	@ Stanford	L	68-69	47%
Mar 09, 2021	115	@ Oregon St.	W	72-65	72%
Projected Record						15 - 7	13 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.9	2.8	5.4	5.8	4.8	3.0	1.0		23.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.6	4.3	5.8	3.6	1.3	0.2				16.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	1.9	4.5	4.3	2.1	0.4	0.0					13.5	3rd
4th											0.2	1.8	3.9	3.6	1.1	0.2	0.0						10.8	4th
5th										0.1	1.4	3.6	3.0	0.8	0.0								8.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	1.3	3.0	2.2	0.6	0.0									7.3	6th
7th							0.0	0.1	0.8	2.4	2.1	0.5	0.0										5.8	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	0.9	1.8	1.6	0.4	0.0											4.7	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.2	0.3	0.0												3.5	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.2	0.0													2.5	10th
11th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0														1.5	11th
12th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0																0.7	12th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.1	2.0	3.2	4.0	5.7	7.1	8.3	9.5	10.7	10.6	10.9	9.4	7.1	5.1	3.0	1.0			Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	1.0		1.0
19-1	100.0%	3.0		2.9	0.1
18-2	95.3%	4.8		4.3	0.5	0.0
17-3	81.4%	5.8		4.5	1.2	0.1
16-4	57.5%	5.4		3.1	2.0	0.4	0.0
15-5	25.9%	2.8		1.1	1.2	0.5	0.0
14-6	8.4%	0.9		0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	23.9%	23.9		17.1	5.2	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	1.0%		100.0%	76.9%	23.1%	1.2		0.8	0.2	0.0																100.0%
19-1	3.0%		100.0%	59.3%	40.7%	1.3		2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0															100.0%
18-2	5.1%		100.0%	48.0%	52.0%	1.6		2.7	1.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0													100.0%
17-3	7.1%		100.0%	38.3%	61.7%	2.2		2.0	2.8	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
16-4	9.4%		99.9%	32.1%	67.8%	3.2		0.9	2.2	2.7	2.2	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.9%
15-5	10.9%		100.0%	26.0%	74.0%	4.4		0.2	0.9	2.0	2.8	2.6	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0								100.0%
14-6	10.6%		99.4%	21.5%	78.0%	5.9		0.0	0.1	0.8	1.4	2.1	2.3	1.8	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.1		99.3%
13-7	10.7%		96.9%	13.7%	83.3%	7.4			0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.6	2.1	2.1	1.4	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0				0.3		96.5%
12-8	9.5%		87.0%	10.0%	77.0%	9.0				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.4	1.7	1.6	1.3	0.5	0.1				1.2		85.5%
11-9	8.3%		61.3%	5.6%	55.7%	10.3					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.3	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0		3.2		59.0%
10-10	7.1%		30.7%	4.1%	26.6%	11.2							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.3	0.0			4.9		27.7%
9-11	5.7%		5.3%	2.4%	2.9%	12.0										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0			5.4		3.0%
8-12	4.0%		0.6%	0.5%	0.0%	14.2											0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		4.0		0.0%
7-13	3.2%		0.6%	0.6%		15.1																0.0	0.0	3.2
6-14	2.0%		0.5%	0.5%		15.0																0.0		2.0
5-15	1.1%																							1.1
4-16	0.8%																							0.8
3-17	0.4%																							0.4
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		73.2%	19.2%	54.1%	5.5		8.9	8.7	7.4	7.8	7.0	6.5	5.9	5.6	4.4	3.9	3.6	2.8	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.0	26.8		66.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.7%	100.0%	1.2	83.9	15.0	1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.3	73.7	26.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	1.1	90.7	9.3