Preseason Rankings
Creighton
Big East
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#12
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.2#168
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.3#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#53
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.2% 2.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 9.9% 10.2% 1.7%
Top 2 Seed 20.4% 20.8% 5.3%
Top 4 Seed 38.9% 39.6% 16.4%
Top 6 Seed 53.5% 54.3% 27.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.7% 78.4% 50.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.0% 72.8% 44.4%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 6.6
.500 or above 87.7% 88.4% 64.2%
.500 or above in Conference 84.8% 85.2% 67.5%
Conference Champion 26.4% 26.7% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.3% 3.2%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 4.7%
First Round76.3% 77.1% 48.7%
Second Round58.3% 59.0% 33.1%
Sweet Sixteen34.8% 35.3% 16.6%
Elite Eight19.1% 19.4% 8.8%
Final Four10.5% 10.6% 5.4%
Championship Game5.2% 5.4% 1.5%
National Champion2.8% 2.9% 0.3%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 6
Quad 26 - 211 - 8
Quad 34 - 015 - 8
Quad 42 - 018 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 01, 2020 196   Nebraska Omaha W 88-67 97%    
  Dec 04, 2020 342   Kennesaw St. W 90-55 99.9%   
  Dec 08, 2020 4   @ Kansas L 71-76 34%    
  Dec 11, 2020 113   Nebraska W 87-73 90%    
  Dec 14, 2020 45   Marquette W 83-75 75%    
  Dec 17, 2020 73   @ St. John's W 82-77 66%    
  Dec 20, 2020 34   @ Connecticut W 77-76 53%    
  Dec 23, 2020 58   Xavier W 79-70 77%    
  Mar 08, 2021 3   Villanova W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 08, 2021 44   Seton Hall W 81-73 74%    
  Mar 08, 2021 41   Providence W 78-71 73%    
  Mar 08, 2021 51   Butler W 74-65 76%    
  Mar 08, 2021 73   St. John's W 85-74 80%    
  Mar 08, 2021 88   Georgetown W 84-72 84%    
  Mar 08, 2021 79   DePaul W 83-72 82%    
  Mar 08, 2021 34   Connecticut W 80-73 71%    
  Mar 09, 2021 3   @ Villanova L 71-77 32%    
  Mar 09, 2021 44   @ Seton Hall W 78-76 56%    
  Mar 09, 2021 41   @ Providence W 75-74 54%    
  Mar 09, 2021 51   @ Butler W 71-68 58%    
  Mar 09, 2021 45   @ Marquette W 80-78 57%    
  Mar 09, 2021 58   @ Xavier W 76-73 59%    
  Mar 09, 2021 88   @ Georgetown W 81-75 69%    
  Mar 09, 2021 79   @ DePaul W 80-75 66%    
Projected Record 16 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.6 5.6 6.6 5.1 2.9 0.9 26.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 2.9 5.6 6.0 3.9 1.4 0.3 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.3 5.0 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.7 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.6 1.1 0.1 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.7 4.1 5.2 6.7 8.8 9.5 10.7 11.1 10.9 9.7 8.0 5.5 2.9 0.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9 0.1
18-2 93.9% 5.1    4.6 0.6
17-3 82.9% 6.6    5.0 1.5 0.1
16-4 57.7% 5.6    3.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 33.0% 3.6    1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0
14-6 11.2% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.4% 26.4 19.0 6.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 70.5% 29.5% 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.9% 100.0% 58.0% 42.0% 1.3 2.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.5% 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 1.6 3.0 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 8.0% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 2.1 2.5 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.7% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 2.8 1.2 2.9 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.9% 99.9% 26.1% 73.8% 3.9 0.3 1.3 3.2 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 11.1% 99.6% 18.9% 80.7% 5.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.0 2.6 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 10.7% 98.0% 14.1% 83.9% 6.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 2.0 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.6%
12-8 9.5% 90.0% 10.1% 79.9% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 88.9%
11-9 8.8% 71.3% 8.4% 62.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.5 68.7%
10-10 6.7% 38.5% 5.0% 33.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.1 35.2%
9-11 5.2% 12.1% 2.8% 9.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 9.5%
8-12 4.1% 2.6% 1.8% 0.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.9%
7-13 2.7% 1.3% 1.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
6-14 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 77.7% 20.3% 57.4% 5.1 9.9 10.5 10.2 8.4 7.3 7.2 6.0 5.1 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 22.3 72.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 83.7 16.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.2 14.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 87.0 13.0