IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Villanova
Big East
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+17.9	#3
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.9	#277
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+9.9	#4

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+8.0	#8

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	6.8%	7.4%	1.7%
#1 Seed	23.7%	25.5%	8.7%
Top 2 Seed	40.3%	42.8%	19.2%
Top 4 Seed	62.2%	65.0%	38.8%
Top 6 Seed	75.1%	77.8%	53.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	90.6%	92.4%	75.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	86.0%	88.4%	69.2%
Average Seed	3.8	3.6	5.1

.500 or above	94.9%	96.2%	84.0%
.500 or above in Conference	93.7%	94.6%	86.3%
Conference Champion	46.2%	48.2%	29.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.5%	0.4%	1.5%

First Four	2.0%	1.8%	4.0%
First Round	89.8%	91.7%	73.9%
Second Round	75.7%	78.0%	56.4%
Sweet Sixteen	51.4%	53.6%	33.3%
Elite Eight	32.3%	34.1%	17.8%
Final Four	19.4%	20.5%	10.0%
Championship Game	11.4%	12.1%	5.4%
National Champion	6.6%	7.1%	2.6%

Next Game: Boston College (Neutral) - 89.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	3 - 4	3 - 4
Quad 1b	4 - 2	7 - 5
Quad 2	7 - 1	14 - 7
Quad 3	5 - 0	19 - 7
Quad 4	1 - 0	20 - 7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	101	Boston College	W	79-66	89%
Nov 30, 2020	174	Saint Joseph's	W	87-65	97%
Dec 03, 2020	145	Temple	W	81-61	96%
Dec 06, 2020	15	@ Texas	W	68-67	51%
Dec 11, 2020	88	@ Georgetown	W	78-69	78%
Dec 14, 2020	79	DePaul	W	80-66	89%
Dec 16, 2020	51	Butler	W	72-61	83%
Dec 19, 2020	6	Virginia	W	59-58	55%
Dec 23, 2020	45	@ Marquette	W	77-72	65%
Mar 08, 2021	12	@ Creighton	L	73-74	49%
Mar 08, 2021	44	Seton Hall	W	78-68	81%
Mar 08, 2021	41	Providence	W	76-66	80%
Mar 08, 2021	45	Marquette	W	80-69	81%
Mar 08, 2021	58	Xavier	W	76-64	83%
Mar 08, 2021	73	St. John's	W	82-69	86%
Mar 08, 2021	88	Georgetown	W	81-66	88%
Mar 08, 2021	34	Connecticut	W	77-67	78%
Mar 09, 2021	12	Creighton	W	77-71	68%
Mar 09, 2021	44	@ Seton Hall	W	75-71	64%
Mar 09, 2021	41	@ Providence	W	73-69	63%
Mar 09, 2021	51	@ Butler	W	69-64	66%
Mar 09, 2021	58	@ Xavier	W	73-67	67%
Mar 09, 2021	73	@ St. John's	W	79-72	72%
Mar 09, 2021	79	@ DePaul	W	77-69	74%
Mar 09, 2021	34	@ Connecticut	W	74-70	61%
Projected Record						19 - 6	15 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big East Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.3	1.7	4.7	8.5	10.5	10.0	7.5	2.9		46.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.5	2.6	5.1	6.7	4.0	1.7	0.3				20.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	2.6	4.0	3.2	1.3	0.2						11.9	3rd
4th									0.0	0.0	0.4	1.9	2.7	1.7	0.4	0.0							7.2	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	1.4	2.2	1.1	0.2	0.0								5.0	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	1.0	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0									3.4	6th
7th								0.1	0.7	1.0	0.4	0.0											2.2	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.1												1.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0													0.9	9th
10th				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0														0.5	10th
11th			0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0															0.3	11th

Total			0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.6	2.5	3.7	5.4	7.0	8.8	10.4	12.8	12.8	12.1	10.3	7.5	2.9			Total

Big East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	2.9		2.9
19-1	100.0%	7.5		7.5	0.1
18-2	97.4%	10.0		9.3	0.7
17-3	86.3%	10.5		8.4	2.0	0.1
16-4	66.9%	8.5		5.7	2.6	0.3	0.0
15-5	37.1%	4.7		2.3	1.7	0.6	0.0
14-6	16.1%	1.7		0.5	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-7	3.1%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.5%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%	0.0							0.0
10-10	0.0%

Total	46.2%	46.2		36.6	8.0	1.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	2.9%		100.0%	74.5%	25.5%	1.1		2.6	0.3	0.0																100.0%
19-1	7.5%		100.0%	63.6%	36.4%	1.2		6.0	1.5	0.1																100.0%
18-2	10.3%		100.0%	55.6%	44.4%	1.4		6.8	3.0	0.4	0.1	0.0														100.0%
17-3	12.1%		100.0%	44.8%	55.2%	1.8		5.0	4.6	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0													100.0%
16-4	12.8%		100.0%	40.9%	59.1%	2.5		2.5	4.3	3.7	1.5	0.6	0.1	0.0												100.0%
15-5	12.8%		100.0%	32.0%	68.0%	3.5		0.6	2.4	4.0	3.0	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0									100.0%
14-6	10.4%		99.8%	23.8%	76.0%	4.7		0.1	0.5	2.0	2.4	2.3	1.7	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.7%
13-7	8.8%		98.8%	16.5%	82.3%	6.1		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.2	1.5	1.9	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0					0.1		98.5%
12-8	7.0%		93.1%	13.7%	79.4%	7.6				0.1	0.3	0.7	1.1	1.2	1.1	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.5		92.0%
11-9	5.4%		77.2%	8.7%	68.4%	9.1				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0			1.2		75.0%
10-10	3.7%		48.2%	4.4%	43.8%	10.5						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0			1.9		45.8%
9-11	2.5%		21.8%	4.7%	17.1%	11.3								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0		2.0		17.9%
8-12	1.6%		6.7%	3.7%	3.0%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		1.5		3.1%
7-13	1.1%		2.3%	1.6%	0.7%	13.1													0.0			0.0		1.0		0.8%
6-14	0.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
5-15	0.3%																							0.3
4-16	0.1%																							0.1
3-17	0.1%																							0.1
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		90.6%	33.1%	57.5%	3.8		23.7	16.6	12.9	9.0	7.1	5.8	4.4	3.4	2.1	1.9	1.8	1.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	9.4		86.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	1.2%	100.0%	1.1	93.4	6.0	0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%	100.0%	1.2	77.4	22.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	1.1	85.1	14.9