IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Butler
Big East
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.8	#51
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	60.4	#337
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.6	#62

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.2	#48

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
#1 Seed	1.5%	1.6%	0.2%
Top 2 Seed	3.7%	3.9%	0.4%
Top 4 Seed	10.1%	10.5%	1.9%
Top 6 Seed	18.1%	18.8%	5.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	42.0%	43.2%	17.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	38.4%	39.7%	15.8%
Average Seed	7.1	7.1	8.3

.500 or above	58.4%	60.1%	26.4%
.500 or above in Conference	49.1%	50.3%	26.2%
Conference Champion	5.5%	5.7%	2.1%
Last Place in Conference	10.4%	9.8%	22.1%

First Four	4.1%	4.2%	3.1%
First Round	40.0%	41.2%	16.5%
Second Round	24.0%	24.9%	8.4%
Sweet Sixteen	10.8%	11.2%	3.0%
Elite Eight	4.8%	5.0%	0.9%
Final Four	2.2%	2.2%	0.3%
Championship Game	0.9%	1.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 95.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 5	1 - 5
Quad 1b	2 - 3	4 - 8
Quad 2	4 - 3	8 - 11
Quad 3	4 - 1	12 - 12
Quad 4	2 - 0	14 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	238	Western Michigan	W	74-57	95%
Nov 29, 2020	186	Eastern Illinois	W	75-61	91%
Dec 06, 2020	167	Northern Kentucky	W	71-58	88%
Dec 11, 2020	89	Kansas St.	W	67-60	72%
Dec 14, 2020	73	St. John's	W	74-69	67%
Dec 16, 2020	3	@ Villanova	L	61-72	17%
Dec 19, 2020	24	Indiana	L	64-68	38%
Dec 23, 2020	41	Providence	W	68-66	57%
Mar 08, 2021	41	@ Providence	L	65-69	36%
Mar 08, 2021	45	Marquette	W	72-70	59%
Mar 08, 2021	58	Xavier	W	68-65	62%
Mar 08, 2021	88	Georgetown	W	73-66	71%
Mar 08, 2021	79	DePaul	W	72-66	69%
Mar 08, 2021	34	Connecticut	W	69-68	54%
Mar 08, 2021	12	@ Creighton	L	65-74	24%
Mar 08, 2021	44	@ Seton Hall	L	67-71	38%
Mar 09, 2021	45	@ Marquette	L	69-73	38%
Mar 09, 2021	58	@ Xavier	L	65-68	43%
Mar 09, 2021	73	@ St. John's	L	71-72	46%
Mar 09, 2021	88	@ Georgetown	W	70-69	52%
Mar 09, 2021	79	@ DePaul	L	69-70	49%
Mar 09, 2021	34	@ Connecticut	L	66-71	35%
Mar 09, 2021	12	Creighton	L	68-71	42%
Mar 09, 2021	3	Villanova	L	64-69	34%
Mar 09, 2021	44	Seton Hall	W	70-68	57%
Projected Record						13 - 12	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big East Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.6	1.2	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.1		5.5	1st
2nd												0.1	0.5	1.7	2.7	2.2	1.2	0.2	0.1				8.7	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	3.0	3.1	2.0	0.6	0.1	0.0					9.7	3rd
4th										0.1	1.0	3.4	3.7	1.6	0.3	0.0							10.2	4th
5th									0.1	1.3	3.7	3.7	1.3	0.2	0.0								10.2	5th
6th								0.1	1.5	4.2	3.8	1.1	0.1										10.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.4	3.7	3.7	1.2	0.1											10.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.5	4.1	3.6	1.0	0.1												10.4	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.6	3.3	2.9	0.9	0.1													9.1	9th
10th			0.2	0.7	2.1	2.8	2.0	0.5	0.1														8.4	10th
11th	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.9	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.0															6.8	11th

Total	0.1	0.6	1.5	2.6	4.2	5.5	7.3	9.0	9.8	10.4	9.9	9.3	8.5	6.8	5.5	4.0	2.6	1.4	0.8	0.2	0.1			Total

Big East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
18-2	92.8%	0.8		0.7	0.1
17-3	83.7%	1.2		0.9	0.3
16-4	49.7%	1.3		0.8	0.4	0.1
15-5	30.6%	1.2		0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0
14-6	10.3%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0			0.0		0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	5.5%	5.5		3.5	1.6	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		100.0%	50.0%	50.0%	1.5		0.1	0.1																	100.0%
19-1	0.2%		100.0%	49.6%	50.4%	1.5		0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0															100.0%
18-2	0.8%		100.0%	40.2%	59.8%	1.6		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0															100.0%
17-3	1.4%		100.0%	36.7%	63.3%	2.1		0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0														100.0%
16-4	2.6%		100.0%	27.9%	72.1%	2.9		0.3	0.7	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0											100.0%
15-5	4.0%		100.0%	19.3%	80.6%	4.0		0.1	0.4	1.0	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0								0.0		100.0%
14-6	5.5%		100.0%	14.6%	85.4%	5.3		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.2	1.4	1.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		100.0%
13-7	6.8%		97.4%	9.7%	87.8%	6.8			0.0	0.1	0.3	1.1	1.4	1.5	1.1	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.2		97.2%
12-8	8.5%		92.1%	6.0%	86.1%	8.3				0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.3	1.6	1.5	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.0				0.7		91.6%
11-9	9.3%		74.3%	5.1%	69.2%	9.6				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.0	1.2	1.3	1.2	0.9	0.2	0.0			2.4		72.9%
10-10	9.9%		41.3%	4.3%	37.0%	10.6						0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.7	1.0	1.1	0.3	0.0	0.0		5.8		38.7%
9-11	10.4%		14.5%	1.4%	13.1%	11.5								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0		8.9		13.3%
8-12	9.8%		2.6%	1.0%	1.6%	12.4											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.5		1.7%
7-13	9.0%		0.4%	0.4%	0.0%	12.9												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		8.9		0.0%
6-14	7.3%		0.2%	0.2%		15.5																0.0	0.0	7.2
5-15	5.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
4-16	4.2%																							4.2
3-17	2.6%																							2.6
2-18	1.5%																							1.5
1-19	0.6%																							0.6
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		42.0%	5.7%	36.2%	7.1		1.5	2.2	3.1	3.2	4.0	4.1	4.5	4.4	3.9	3.5	3.4	3.1	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0	58.0		38.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	1.9	13.8	86.2