IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.3	#128
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.6	#152
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.4	#109

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.2	#171

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	0.5%	0.7%	0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.3%	9.0%	2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	4.2%	6.4%	1.5%
Average Seed	10.4	10.3	10.8

.500 or above	43.6%	56.2%	28.0%
.500 or above in Conference	25.1%	31.2%	17.7%
Conference Champion	0.9%	1.1%	0.5%
Last Place in Conference	12.2%	8.9%	16.2%

First Four	1.5%	2.2%	0.6%
First Round	5.4%	7.7%	2.6%
Second Round	1.9%	2.8%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	0.9%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Neutral) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	2 - 4	2 - 6
Quad 3	5 - 4	7 - 11
Quad 4	3 - 1	10 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 26, 2020	149	Siena	W	74-73	55%
Nov 27, 2020	197	Delaware	W	78-73	66%
Nov 29, 2020	222	Iona	W	78-72	72%
Dec 01, 2020	97	South Florida	L	67-70	38%
Dec 13, 2020	163	@ Northeastern	L	71-72	49%
Dec 30, 2020	123	George Mason	W	73-71	59%
Jan 02, 2021	52	@ Saint Louis	L	67-78	18%
Jan 06, 2021	198	@ George Washington	W	73-71	55%
Jan 17, 2021	201	@ Fordham	W	66-64	57%
Jan 20, 2021	52	Saint Louis	L	70-75	35%
Jan 24, 2021	81	Davidson	L	71-73	44%
Jan 30, 2021	123	@ George Mason	L	70-74	39%
Feb 03, 2021	201	Fordham	W	69-61	75%
Feb 06, 2021	93	@ Rhode Island	L	73-79	30%
Feb 09, 2021	47	Dayton	L	72-77	35%
Feb 14, 2021	85	St. Bonaventure	L	71-72	46%
Feb 20, 2021	90	@ Duquesne	L	70-77	29%
Feb 24, 2021	174	@ Saint Joseph's	W	80-79	50%
Feb 27, 2021	93	Rhode Island	L	76-77	49%
Mar 03, 2021	53	Richmond	L	73-78	35%
Projected Record						9 - 11	7 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1					0.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.0					1.8	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.3	1.1	0.3	0.0						2.8	3rd
4th										0.2	1.5	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0						4.2	4th
5th									0.1	1.6	2.8	1.2	0.1								5.7	5th
6th								0.1	1.3	3.6	1.8	0.1									6.9	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	3.8	3.1	0.3	0.0									8.0	7th
8th						0.0	0.4	3.8	4.2	0.8	0.0										9.3	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	3.0	5.4	1.7	0.1											10.6	9th
10th				0.0	0.4	2.6	5.1	2.6	0.3	0.0											10.9	10th
11th				0.2	1.9	5.2	3.5	0.5	0.0												11.3	11th
12th		0.0	0.2	1.8	4.6	3.7	0.9	0.0													11.3	12th
13th	0.0	0.3	1.8	3.9	3.0	0.7	0.1														9.8	13th
14th	0.5	1.6	2.4	1.7	0.4	0.0															6.6	14th

Total	0.5	1.9	4.5	7.6	10.3	12.6	13.0	13.1	11.4	9.4	6.6	4.7	2.6	1.3	0.5	0.1						Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	98.1%	0.1		0.1	0.0
14-4	56.3%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	30.2%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	3.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0				0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.9%	0.9		0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	0.1%		100.0%	25.9%	74.1%	4.5		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0										100.0%
14-4	0.5%		89.5%	25.2%	64.3%	6.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0				0.1		85.9%
13-5	1.3%		79.1%	20.0%	59.1%	8.8					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.3		73.9%
12-6	2.6%		55.7%	13.1%	42.6%	10.3				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.1				1.2		49.0%
11-7	4.7%		29.0%	9.4%	19.7%	11.0						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0			3.3		21.7%
10-8	6.6%		14.3%	5.3%	9.0%	11.5									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0		5.7		9.5%
9-9	9.4%		5.9%	3.5%	2.4%	11.9											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		8.8		2.5%
8-10	11.4%		2.0%	1.4%	0.6%	12.1											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		11.2		0.6%
7-11	13.1%		0.9%	0.8%	0.1%	13.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		13.0		0.1%
6-12	13.0%		0.2%	0.2%		13.4														0.0	0.0	0.0		12.9
5-13	12.6%		0.1%	0.1%		15.5																0.0	0.0	12.6
4-14	10.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.3
3-15	7.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.6
2-16	4.5%																							4.5
1-17	1.9%																							1.9
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		6.3%	2.2%	4.1%	10.4		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.7	1.0	1.2	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.0	93.7		4.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%