IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.8	#149
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.2	#252
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.2	#136

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.4	#181

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.3%	0.7%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	25.5%	30.6%	21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.5%	1.1%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.7	13.2	14.3

.500 or above	82.9%	92.3%	75.2%
.500 or above in Conference	87.9%	93.0%	83.8%
Conference Champion	36.1%	44.6%	29.2%
Last Place in Conference	1.2%	0.5%	1.8%

First Four	1.6%	1.1%	2.1%
First Round	24.7%	30.1%	20.3%
Second Round	3.2%	4.9%	1.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.8%	1.4%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Neutral) - 44.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 3	4 - 4	4 - 5
Quad 4	13 - 4	17 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 26, 2020	128	Massachusetts	L	73-74	45%
Nov 28, 2020	197	Delaware	W	75-72	62%
Nov 30, 2020	147	Liberty	L	62-63	49%
Dec 05, 2020	96	Vermont	L	67-72	34%
Dec 11, 2020	268	@ Fairfield	W	64-60	64%
Dec 12, 2020	268	@ Fairfield	W	64-60	64%
Dec 18, 2020	221	Canisius	W	77-69	76%
Dec 19, 2020	221	Canisius	W	77-69	76%
Jan 01, 2021	176	Monmouth	W	78-73	66%
Jan 02, 2021	176	Monmouth	W	78-73	66%
Jan 15, 2021	273	@ Rider	W	76-72	64%
Jan 16, 2021	273	@ Rider	W	76-72	64%
Jan 22, 2021	195	St. Peter's	W	71-65	69%
Jan 23, 2021	195	St. Peter's	W	71-65	69%
Jan 29, 2021	259	@ Niagara	W	73-69	62%
Jan 30, 2021	259	@ Niagara	W	73-69	62%
Feb 05, 2021	222	@ Iona	W	73-71	56%
Feb 06, 2021	222	@ Iona	W	73-71	55%
Feb 12, 2021	251	Manhattan	W	70-61	78%
Feb 13, 2021	251	Manhattan	W	70-61	78%
Feb 19, 2021	288	Quinnipiac	W	78-67	81%
Feb 20, 2021	288	Quinnipiac	W	78-67	82%
Mar 05, 2021	284	@ Marist	W	68-63	65%
Mar 06, 2021	284	@ Marist	W	68-63	65%
Projected Record						16 - 8	14 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.5	2.2	4.9	7.6	8.5	6.9	4.1	1.4		36.1	1st
2nd												0.1	0.9	3.5	5.6	5.0	3.0	0.9	0.1				19.0	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.8	3.1	4.8	3.0	0.9	0.2	0.0					12.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	3.0	3.7	1.8	0.3	0.0							9.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	2.2	2.9	1.1	0.2	0.0								6.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	1.6	2.2	0.9	0.1	0.0									5.0	6th
7th								0.2	1.2	1.8	0.7	0.1											4.0	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	0.8	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0											2.7	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.4	0.0													1.9	9th
10th				0.1	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.0														1.4	10th
11th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.7	11th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	1.2	2.0	3.1	4.4	6.1	7.7	8.9	10.8	11.1	10.8	10.8	9.4	7.0	4.1	1.4			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	1.4		1.4
19-1	100.0%	4.1		4.1	0.0
18-2	98.1%	6.9		6.3	0.5
17-3	90.3%	8.5		7.0	1.4	0.0
16-4	70.5%	7.6		5.3	2.1	0.2
15-5	45.7%	4.9		2.4	2.1	0.4	0.0
14-6	19.9%	2.2		0.7	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-7	4.8%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.9%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	36.1%	36.1		27.2	7.4	1.3	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	1.4%		77.7%	66.1%	11.6%	8.7			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.3		34.3%
19-1	4.1%		63.2%	59.7%	3.5%	12.0					0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.3	0.0		1.5		8.6%
18-2	7.0%		51.4%	50.5%	0.9%	12.8										0.0	0.0	0.2	1.0	1.7	0.7	0.0		3.4		1.7%
17-3	9.4%		41.8%	41.7%	0.1%	13.5												0.0	0.4	1.6	1.5	0.4	0.0	5.4		0.1%
16-4	10.8%		33.8%	33.8%		13.9													0.1	1.0	1.7	0.9	0.0	7.1
15-5	10.8%		29.3%	29.3%		14.3													0.0	0.5	1.3	1.2	0.2	7.6
14-6	11.1%		25.2%	25.2%		14.7													0.0	0.2	0.9	1.3	0.4	8.3
13-7	10.8%		17.9%	17.9%		15.1														0.0	0.3	0.9	0.7	8.8
12-8	8.9%		13.5%	13.5%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	7.7
11-9	7.7%		9.6%	9.6%		15.6															0.0	0.2	0.5	7.0
10-10	6.1%		7.4%	7.4%		15.9																0.1	0.4	5.6
9-11	4.4%		4.8%	4.8%		16.0																0.0	0.2	4.2
8-12	3.1%		3.6%	3.6%		15.9																0.0	0.1	3.0
7-13	2.0%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.0
6-14	1.2%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
5-15	0.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.7
4-16	0.3%																							0.3
3-17	0.2%																							0.2
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		25.5%	25.1%	0.4%	13.7			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.7	2.5	5.8	6.8	5.4	3.1	74.5		0.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	5.5		5.8	5.8	18.4	20.6	26.1	14.2	3.2	2.6	0.3	0.3		2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	67.9%	9.3					1.8	14.3			14.3	16.1	7.1	14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	84.5%	10.9							13.8		13.8		13.8	15.5	27.6