Preseason Rankings
Memphis
American Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#40
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.3#16
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#72
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.7% 2.4% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 4.1% 5.7% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 10.4% 14.1% 4.5%
Top 6 Seed 18.0% 23.7% 9.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.6% 61.9% 37.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.1% 51.7% 28.1%
Average Seed 7.7 7.4 8.5
.500 or above 88.7% 93.9% 80.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 91.1% 81.5%
Conference Champion 22.4% 26.7% 15.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four4.2% 4.3% 4.1%
First Round50.6% 59.9% 35.6%
Second Round29.8% 36.9% 18.4%
Sweet Sixteen13.0% 16.7% 7.1%
Elite Eight5.8% 7.5% 3.1%
Final Four2.4% 3.1% 1.3%
Championship Game1.0% 1.4% 0.4%
National Champion0.4% 0.6% 0.1%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Neutral) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 25 - 37 - 7
Quad 37 - 114 - 9
Quad 44 - 018 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 74   St. Mary's W 73-70 62%    
  Dec 02, 2020 219   Arkansas St. W 85-67 95%    
  Dec 05, 2020 61   @ Mississippi L 75-76 45%    
  Dec 08, 2020 348   Mississippi Valley W 106-70 99.9%   
  Dec 12, 2020 60   Auburn W 79-77 57%    
  Dec 16, 2020 210   @ Tulane W 81-70 85%    
  Dec 21, 2020 98   Tulsa W 75-66 78%    
  Dec 29, 2020 97   South Florida W 74-65 77%    
  Jan 02, 2021 145   @ Temple W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 05, 2021 111   @ Central Florida W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 14, 2021 65   SMU W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 17, 2021 98   @ Tulsa W 72-69 58%    
  Jan 21, 2021 77   Wichita St. W 79-73 71%    
  Jan 24, 2021 151   @ East Carolina W 82-75 73%    
  Jan 27, 2021 65   @ SMU L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 03, 2021 111   Central Florida W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 06, 2021 151   East Carolina W 85-72 87%    
  Feb 11, 2021 55   Cincinnati W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 14, 2021 18   @ Houston L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 18, 2021 77   @ Wichita St. W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 21, 2021 145   Temple W 82-69 86%    
  Feb 24, 2021 210   Tulane W 84-67 92%    
  Feb 28, 2021 55   @ Cincinnati L 73-75 45%    
  Mar 03, 2021 97   @ South Florida W 71-68 57%    
  Mar 06, 2021 18   Houston L 72-73 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.7 5.9 4.8 2.7 0.7 22.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 6.6 5.2 2.0 0.4 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.6 5.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.6 3.5 1.1 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.1 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.3 4.8 6.3 8.7 9.8 11.4 12.3 12.0 10.3 8.0 5.2 2.7 0.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.7    2.6 0.1
18-2 92.9% 4.8    4.2 0.6 0.0
17-3 74.1% 5.9    4.3 1.5 0.1
16-4 45.3% 4.7    2.4 2.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 22.2% 2.7    0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.4% 22.4 15.3 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 67.0% 33.0% 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.7% 100.0% 53.5% 46.5% 2.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.2% 99.7% 46.6% 53.1% 3.9 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
17-3 8.0% 99.3% 36.8% 62.6% 5.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
16-4 10.3% 94.5% 29.1% 65.4% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 92.2%
15-5 12.0% 83.8% 23.4% 60.4% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.0 78.8%
14-6 12.3% 64.5% 15.6% 48.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 2.0 1.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 57.9%
13-7 11.4% 42.6% 11.8% 30.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.5 34.9%
12-8 9.8% 21.7% 8.8% 12.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.6 14.1%
11-9 8.7% 9.0% 4.7% 4.4% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.9 4.6%
10-10 6.3% 5.9% 4.2% 1.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.0 1.8%
9-11 4.8% 2.2% 2.0% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.2%
8-12 3.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
7-13 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-14 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 52.6% 18.0% 34.5% 7.7 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.8 5.6 5.7 6.6 6.2 4.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 47.4 42.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 70.2 29.1 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 51.0 49.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0