IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Houston
American Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+14.2	#18
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.2	#295
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+7.2	#21

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.0	#15

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	1.3%	1.3%	0.8%
#1 Seed	6.9%	7.1%	1.6%
Top 2 Seed	14.2%	14.4%	4.0%
Top 4 Seed	28.8%	29.2%	7.8%
Top 6 Seed	41.4%	42.0%	12.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid	77.9%	78.4%	51.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	66.6%	67.3%	38.0%
Average Seed	6.2	6.2	8.4

.500 or above	97.2%	97.4%	85.3%
.500 or above in Conference	96.1%	96.3%	87.1%
Conference Champion	46.2%	46.7%	23.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%

First Four	3.4%	3.4%	6.0%
First Round	76.3%	76.8%	48.7%
Second Round	52.7%	53.3%	26.1%
Sweet Sixteen	27.7%	28.1%	11.2%
Elite Eight	14.1%	14.3%	5.4%
Final Four	7.4%	7.5%	2.1%
Championship Game	3.6%	3.7%	0.5%
National Champion	1.9%	1.9%	0.4%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 1b	2 - 2	3 - 4
Quad 2	6 - 2	9 - 6
Quad 3	8 - 1	17 - 7
Quad 4	5 - 0	22 - 7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	236	Lamar	W	81-59	98%
Nov 27, 2020	86	Boise St.	W	77-66	84%
Nov 29, 2020	14	Texas Tech	L	68-69	47%
Dec 05, 2020	59	South Carolina	W	78-70	76%
Dec 09, 2020	246	Sam Houston St.	W	84-62	98%
Dec 12, 2020	265	Rice	W	84-61	98%
Dec 15, 2020	111	Central Florida	W	74-61	88%
Dec 19, 2020	32	@ Alabama	L	77-78	48%
Dec 22, 2020	145	Temple	W	78-62	92%
Dec 29, 2020	98	@ Tulsa	W	68-62	70%
Jan 03, 2021	65	@ SMU	W	69-67	58%
Jan 06, 2021	77	Wichita St.	W	75-65	80%
Jan 09, 2021	210	Tulane	W	79-59	96%
Jan 14, 2021	97	@ South Florida	W	67-61	68%
Jan 17, 2021	111	@ Central Florida	W	71-64	72%
Jan 20, 2021	98	Tulsa	W	71-59	84%
Jan 23, 2021	55	Cincinnati	W	73-65	74%
Jan 27, 2021	210	@ Tulane	W	76-62	88%
Jan 31, 2021	65	SMU	W	72-64	76%
Feb 03, 2021	151	@ East Carolina	W	77-67	81%
Feb 10, 2021	145	@ Temple	W	75-65	80%
Feb 14, 2021	40	Memphis	W	76-70	70%
Feb 17, 2021	151	East Carolina	W	80-64	91%
Feb 21, 2021	55	@ Cincinnati	W	70-68	54%
Feb 25, 2021	77	@ Wichita St.	W	72-68	63%
Feb 28, 2021	97	South Florida	W	70-58	83%
Mar 06, 2021	40	@ Memphis	W	73-72	50%
Projected Record						21 - 6	15 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	1.0	3.7	8.3	10.7	11.2	7.9	3.1		46.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.7	4.7	6.7	5.6	2.6	0.5				22.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	1.8	3.8	4.2	2.2	0.4	0.0					12.7	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.2	2.8	2.4	1.0	0.1							7.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	1.1	1.9	1.5	0.4	0.0								5.1	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	0.7	1.2	0.9	0.1										3.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0										1.6	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0											0.9	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.5	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	10th
11th					0.0	0.0	0.0																0.0	11th

Total			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.8	2.9	4.3	6.5	8.4	10.9	12.7	14.3	13.3	11.8	7.9	3.1			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	3.1		3.1
19-1	100.0%	7.9		7.8	0.2
18-2	95.4%	11.2		10.2	1.0	0.0
17-3	80.6%	10.7		8.2	2.4	0.2
16-4	57.8%	8.3		4.9	2.9	0.5	0.0
15-5	29.4%	3.7		1.4	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0
14-6	9.4%	1.0		0.1	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	46.2%	46.2		35.8	8.6	1.6	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	3.1%		100.0%	72.3%	27.7%	1.5		1.9	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0													100.0%
19-1	7.9%		100.0%	62.6%	37.4%	2.1		3.0	2.6	1.3	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0									0.0		100.0%
18-2	11.8%		99.7%	51.1%	48.6%	3.3		1.7	2.6	2.8	2.3	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.4%
17-3	13.3%		99.4%	45.0%	54.4%	5.0		0.3	1.0	1.9	3.0	2.4	1.7	1.4	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.1		98.9%
16-4	14.3%		97.4%	37.5%	59.9%	6.8		0.0	0.2	0.5	1.4	2.0	2.2	2.3	2.0	1.7	1.0	0.3	0.2	0.0				0.4		95.9%
15-5	12.7%		90.8%	30.7%	60.1%	8.3			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.7	1.9	2.1	1.9	1.2	0.5	0.0				1.2		86.7%
14-6	10.9%		76.4%	21.6%	54.8%	9.5					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.8	2.0	1.5	0.9	0.1				2.6		69.9%
13-7	8.4%		55.7%	17.7%	38.0%	10.4						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.2	1.3	1.0	0.1	0.0			3.7		46.2%
12-8	6.5%		34.0%	11.3%	22.8%	11.0							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.0			4.3		25.6%
11-9	4.3%		18.8%	9.7%	9.1%	11.4							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		3.5		10.1%
10-10	2.9%		7.1%	4.8%	2.3%	11.7										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			2.7		2.4%
9-11	1.8%		3.1%	2.5%	0.6%	13.2											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7		0.6%
8-12	1.0%		4.5%	4.5%		13.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
7-13	0.6%		3.0%	3.0%		14.2													0.0			0.0	0.0	0.6
6-14	0.3%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.3
5-15	0.1%																							0.1
4-16	0.1%																							0.1
3-17	0.0%																							0.0
2-18	0.0%																							0.0
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		77.9%	33.8%	44.1%	6.2		6.9	7.3	6.8	7.7	6.5	6.1	6.5	6.3	7.1	6.8	5.5	3.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	22.1		66.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	1.0%	100.0%	1.2	76.7	22.5	0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.2	84.2	15.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	1.4	66.7	30.4	2.9