Preseason Rankings
Rice
Conference USA
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#265
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.1#71
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#226
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#299
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 14.4
.500 or above 12.4% 16.1% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 9.3% 11.3% 4.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 39.8% 35.3% 49.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 68.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 73 - 13
Quad 46 - 38 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 336   @ Incarnate Word W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 05, 2020 339   @ Houston Baptist W 93-87 70%    
  Dec 12, 2020 18   @ Houston L 61-84 2%    
  Dec 15, 2020 339   Houston Baptist W 96-84 85%    
  Dec 19, 2020 246   @ Sam Houston St. L 77-81 37%    
  Dec 21, 2020 336   Incarnate Word W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 01, 2021 153   Texas San Antonio L 82-86 37%    
  Jan 02, 2021 153   Texas San Antonio L 82-86 37%    
  Jan 08, 2021 161   @ UTEP L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 09, 2021 161   @ UTEP L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 15, 2021 118   Old Dominion L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 16, 2021 118   Old Dominion L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 22, 2021 131   @ UAB L 67-78 18%    
  Jan 23, 2021 131   @ UAB L 67-78 18%    
  Jan 28, 2021 95   North Texas L 66-75 24%    
  Jan 30, 2021 95   @ North Texas L 63-78 11%    
  Feb 05, 2021 229   Southern Miss W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 06, 2021 229   Southern Miss W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 12, 2021 82   @ Western Kentucky L 70-86 10%    
  Feb 13, 2021 82   @ Western Kentucky L 70-86 9%    
  Feb 19, 2021 110   Marshall L 81-88 28%    
  Feb 20, 2021 110   Marshall L 81-88 27%    
  Feb 26, 2021 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-81 14%    
  Feb 27, 2021 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-81 14%    
Projected Record 8 - 16 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.3 0.1 5.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.5 0.4 7.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.9 1.0 0.0 9.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 5.5 1.5 0.1 14.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 3.8 6.8 6.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 20.0 13th
14th 3.8 7.7 8.8 5.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 27.5 14th
Total 3.9 8.8 12.8 14.4 14.1 12.5 10.3 8.1 5.8 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 76.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 48.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 58.6% 55.2% 3.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7%
15-3 0.1% 32.2% 26.7% 5.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.6%
14-4 0.2% 35.4% 35.0% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6%
13-5 0.5% 13.6% 11.7% 1.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1%
12-6 0.8% 11.6% 11.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.4% 2.6% 2.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 2.4% 3.9% 3.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
9-9 3.7% 1.0% 1.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
8-10 5.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
7-11 8.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 8.0
6-12 10.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 10.2
5-13 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.5
4-14 14.1% 14.1
3-15 14.4% 14.4
2-16 12.8% 12.8
1-17 8.8% 8.8
0-18 3.9% 3.9
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%