IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Marshall
Conference USA
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.1	#110
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	83.9	#3
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.9	#97

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.2	#133

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Top 4 Seed	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	1.0%	1.0%	0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.6%	17.1%	4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	5.8%	6.0%	0.9%
Average Seed	11.1	11.1	12.1

.500 or above	78.0%	79.1%	49.5%
.500 or above in Conference	75.8%	76.5%	58.9%
Conference Champion	14.7%	15.0%	5.6%
Last Place in Conference	1.5%	1.4%	4.0%

First Four	2.1%	2.1%	0.7%
First Round	15.5%	16.0%	4.7%
Second Round	4.8%	5.0%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	1.5%	1.5%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	2 - 4	2 - 5
Quad 3	7 - 5	9 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 1	18 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	327	Coppin St.	W	94-75	96%
Nov 27, 2020	269	Tennessee St.	W	87-74	89%
Dec 02, 2020	121	@ Wright St.	L	84-86	43%
Dec 05, 2020	126	@ Akron	L	81-82	45%
Dec 09, 2020	162	@ College of Charleston	W	78-77	55%
Dec 13, 2020	134	Ohio	W	82-77	68%
Dec 16, 2020	137	Toledo	W	84-79	69%
Dec 19, 2020	64	Northern Iowa	L	77-79	44%
Dec 22, 2020	226	UNC Asheville	W	91-80	84%
Jan 01, 2021	109	@ Louisiana Tech	L	77-80	40%
Jan 02, 2021	109	@ Louisiana Tech	L	77-80	40%
Jan 07, 2021	164	Charlotte	W	79-72	74%
Jan 09, 2021	164	Charlotte	W	79-72	74%
Jan 14, 2021	82	@ Western Kentucky	L	79-85	32%
Jan 17, 2021	82	Western Kentucky	W	83-82	51%
Jan 21, 2021	171	@ Florida International	W	87-85	56%
Jan 23, 2021	171	@ Florida International	W	87-85	56%
Jan 28, 2021	191	Florida Atlantic	W	83-74	78%
Jan 30, 2021	191	Florida Atlantic	W	83-74	78%
Feb 05, 2021	118	@ Old Dominion	L	75-77	42%
Feb 06, 2021	118	@ Old Dominion	L	75-77	42%
Feb 11, 2021	193	Middle Tennessee	W	87-78	78%
Feb 13, 2021	193	Middle Tennessee	W	87-78	78%
Feb 19, 2021	265	@ Rice	W	88-81	72%
Feb 20, 2021	265	@ Rice	W	88-81	73%
Feb 25, 2021	95	North Texas	W	75-74	54%
Feb 27, 2021	95	North Texas	W	75-74	55%
Projected Record						17 - 10	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.3	3.4	4.3	3.4	1.6	0.5		14.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	2.3	4.5	4.3	1.7	0.3	0.0			13.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.2	5.0	3.8	0.9	0.1	0.0				12.2	3rd
4th										0.1	1.4	5.0	3.6	0.7	0.0						10.9	4th
5th									0.1	1.0	4.1	3.7	0.7	0.1							9.5	5th
6th									0.4	3.0	3.9	0.9	0.1								8.3	6th
7th								0.2	2.1	3.6	1.3	0.1									7.2	7th
8th							0.0	1.1	3.0	1.8	0.1	0.0									6.0	8th
9th						0.0	0.5	2.5	2.2	0.4	0.0										5.6	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.5	1.7	0.6	0.0											4.1	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	0.5	0.0												3.2	11th
12th			0.0	0.1	0.6	1.0	0.6	0.1													2.3	12th
13th		0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	0.4	0.1														1.7	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0														0.8	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.7	2.6	4.4	6.1	8.3	9.8	11.2	12.3	11.9	10.3	8.6	6.1	3.7	1.6	0.5			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
17-1	99.4%	1.6		1.5	0.1
16-2	92.4%	3.4		2.9	0.5	0.0
15-3	70.8%	4.3		2.7	1.4	0.2
14-4	39.2%	3.4		1.4	1.5	0.4	0.0
13-5	12.6%	1.3		0.2	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.2%	0.3		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0			0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	14.7%	14.7		9.2	3.9	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.5%		95.9%	42.9%	53.0%	5.6		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		92.9%
17-1	1.6%		88.3%	44.0%	44.4%	7.7		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.2		79.2%
16-2	3.7%		72.9%	40.4%	32.5%	9.7				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0			1.0		54.6%
15-3	6.1%		52.7%	30.8%	21.8%	10.9							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.9	1.0	0.2	0.0			2.9		31.6%
14-4	8.6%		34.1%	22.4%	11.7%	11.6								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.2	0.6	0.1			5.7		15.1%
13-5	10.3%		23.2%	18.6%	4.6%	12.3										0.0	0.1	0.2	1.0	0.8	0.2	0.0		7.9		5.6%
12-6	11.9%		13.1%	11.8%	1.2%	12.7											0.0	0.1	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	10.3		1.4%
11-7	12.3%		8.8%	8.3%	0.5%	13.1											0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1		11.2		0.5%
10-8	11.2%		4.4%	4.4%		13.4												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	10.7
9-9	9.8%		2.5%	2.5%	0.0%	13.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.6		0.0%
8-10	8.3%		1.7%	1.7%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	8.1
7-11	6.1%		1.2%	1.2%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	6.1
6-12	4.4%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	4.4
5-13	2.6%																							2.6
4-14	1.7%																							1.7
3-15	0.7%																							0.7
2-16	0.3%																							0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		16.6%	11.5%	5.1%	11.1		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.1	1.8	2.8	4.4	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1	83.4		5.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	2.8	12.6	28.7	20.7	37.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	3.9		3.1	50.0	21.9		25.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	3.8			25.0	75.0