Akron
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#121
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#120
Pace69.8#185
Improvement-1.4#257

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#113
First Shot+0.3#168
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#68
Layup/Dunks-3.5#290
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#32
Freethrows-0.7#221
Improvement-1.7#281

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#141
First Shot+1.5#128
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#201
Layups/Dunks-3.2#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#55
Freethrows-0.5#208
Improvement+0.3#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 13.4% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 89.5% 93.7% 77.4%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 95.2% 80.1%
Conference Champion 10.1% 12.4% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round12.0% 13.2% 8.4%
Second Round1.7% 2.0% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 3
Quad 36 - 38 - 6
Quad 45 - 313 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 15, 2020 57   St. Bonaventure L 74-81 27%     0 - 1 +2.9 +0.4 +3.1
  Dec 22, 2020 128   Ohio W 90-70 60%     1 - 1 1 - 0 +20.8 +20.0 +2.2
  Jan 01, 2021 96   Kent St. W 66-62 50%     2 - 1 2 - 0 +7.5 -8.2 +15.7
  Jan 09, 2021 265   @ Eastern Michigan L 59-71 77%     2 - 2 2 - 1 -16.4 -12.2 -5.0
  Jan 12, 2021 298   @ Northern Illinois L 65-67 83%     2 - 3 2 - 2 -8.6 -6.6 -2.1
  Jan 16, 2021 76   Toledo W 95-94 OT 42%     3 - 3 3 - 2 +6.4 +16.5 -10.2
  Jan 19, 2021 135   @ Bowling Green W 69-57 47%     4 - 3 4 - 2 +16.1 -3.5 +19.5
  Jan 21, 2021 247   Central Michigan W 81-67 84%     5 - 3 5 - 2 +6.8 +2.6 +4.2
  Jan 23, 2021 267   @ Western Michigan W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 26, 2021 265   Eastern Michigan W 75-64 88%    
  Jan 30, 2021 147   Ball St. W 74-70 68%    
  Feb 02, 2021 76   @ Toledo L 72-78 26%    
  Feb 06, 2021 96   Kent St. L 75-76 54%    
  Feb 09, 2021 128   @ Ohio L 74-75 42%    
  Feb 13, 2021 166   @ Miami (OH) W 72-70 54%    
  Feb 16, 2021 298   Northern Illinois W 74-60 91%    
  Feb 20, 2021 147   @ Ball St. W 73-72 46%    
  Feb 27, 2021 135   Bowling Green W 76-73 65%    
  Mar 02, 2021 104   @ Buffalo L 77-80 35%    
  Mar 05, 2021 166   Miami (OH) W 74-68 74%    
Projected Record 12 - 8 12 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.7 2.2 0.5 10.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.9 11.3 10.5 4.0 0.7 0.0 30.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.8 9.3 6.2 0.8 0.0 19.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 7.1 5.5 0.7 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.5 5.4 0.9 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.2 1.1 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.8 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.5 10.8 16.5 19.6 18.9 14.2 7.8 2.9 0.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 95.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1
16-4 76.1% 2.2    1.5 0.7
15-5 47.7% 3.7    1.8 1.8 0.1
14-6 20.4% 2.9    0.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.1% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 4.5 4.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.6% 50.9% 36.8% 14.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 22.3%
16-4 2.9% 33.3% 31.1% 2.2% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 3.1%
15-5 7.8% 24.2% 24.0% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.9 0.2%
14-6 14.2% 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 11.4 0.0%
13-7 18.9% 14.5% 14.5% 13.5 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 16.2
12-8 19.6% 9.6% 9.6% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 17.7
11-9 16.5% 6.0% 6.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 15.5
10-10 10.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.4
9-11 5.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.4
8-12 2.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
7-13 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.1% 11.9% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.0 4.7 3.4 1.3 0.3 87.9 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.3 2.9 5.9 12.7 5.9 25.5 18.6 11.8 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 30.9% 11.1 10.9 7.3 10.9 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 26.8% 11.6 4.9 2.4 17.1 2.4