Mid-American
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
76 Toledo 36.6%   12   13 - 4 8 - 1 21 - 7 16 - 4 +7.3      +7.6 23 -0.2 178 68.6 214 +9.4 65 +11.8 1
96 Kent St. 19.3%   6 - 4 4 - 3 14 - 7 12 - 6 +5.6      +4.6 73 +1.0 145 73.0 95 +5.7 91 +4.7 3
106 Buffalo 14.6%   5 - 5 4 - 3 12 - 9 11 - 7 +4.7      +3.4 87 +1.2 139 82.4 8 +0.5 163 +2.0 5
118 Akron 13.0%   6 - 3 6 - 2 13 - 7 13 - 6 +3.6      +2.7 102 +0.9 148 70.0 170 +4.6 111 +5.6 2
125 Ohio 8.5%   7 - 6 4 - 4 13 - 10 10 - 8 +3.0      +5.4 60 -2.4 236 69.8 181 +1.4 150 +0.9 7
133 Bowling Green 7.7%   9 - 5 6 - 3 14 - 9 11 - 7 +2.4      +2.6 107 -0.2 175 72.6 101 +4.6 110 +4.3 4
148 Ball St. 4.5%   6 - 7 4 - 4 12 - 12 10 - 9 +0.9      +0.1 168 +0.8 151 72.6 102 -0.7 173 +0.4 8
166 Miami (OH) 2.6%   5 - 4 3 - 2 10 - 10 8 - 8 -0.4      +2.0 115 -2.5 239 65.3 281 +0.7 161 +1.6 6
245 Central Michigan 0.2%   4 - 8 2 - 6 8 - 15 6 - 13 -5.3      -0.7 185 -4.6 297 79.9 15 -5.3 243 -6.2 9
264 Eastern Michigan 0.2%   1 - 6 1 - 5 4 - 13 4 - 12 -6.3      -3.5 262 -2.8 250 65.7 269 -8.7 284 -8.6 11
269 Western Michigan 0.1%   1 - 9 1 - 5 3 - 17 3 - 13 -6.6      -4.0 273 -2.7 245 65.7 273 -13.2 322 -9.2 12
297 Northern Illinois 0.0%   2 - 10 1 - 6 4 - 16 3 - 12 -8.6      -5.3 306 -3.3 262 62.8 324 -13.3 323 -7.3 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Toledo 1.1 92.5 5.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 3.7 2.4 26.6 24.1 18.0 13.1 8.4 5.2 2.0 0.2 0.0
Buffalo 3.8 3.3 24.0 23.0 17.8 13.2 9.4 6.3 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Akron 3.0 10.0 41.2 20.0 12.5 7.9 4.8 2.7 1.0 0.0
Ohio 5.0 0.3 8.5 13.7 16.8 19.0 20.8 15.2 4.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 4.4 2.0 12.3 18.2 20.5 19.9 14.8 9.2 2.9 0.2 0.0
Ball St. 5.4 0.9 7.2 10.0 13.0 15.9 19.8 21.8 8.7 2.3 0.4 0.0
Miami (OH) 7.4 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.7 10.1 18.8 43.5 12.2 3.0 0.7 0.1
Central Michigan 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.7 6.4 18.8 44.9 16.6 6.8 2.3
Eastern Michigan 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 5.2 15.9 31.8 26.7 18.9
Western Michigan 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 4.1 15.2 28.8 28.5 22.5
Northern Illinois 10.7 0.0 0.2 2.9 13.6 24.4 30.3 28.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Toledo 16 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.0 9.4 17.0 23.7 23.8 15.4 5.0
Kent St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.7 7.3 13.9 20.7 23.0 18.7 10.2 2.6
Buffalo 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.8 8.4 14.7 20.1 21.8 17.6 9.3 2.6
Akron 13 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.7 8.4 15.2 20.6 20.9 16.3 9.4 3.5 0.7
Ohio 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.8 9.7 17.5 23.5 22.5 14.9 5.9 1.1
Bowling Green 11 - 9 0.2 1.3 5.6 13.4 21.3 24.3 19.1 10.6 3.6 0.5
Ball St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.8 7.8 13.9 19.5 20.9 17.1 10.8 4.9 1.4 0.2
Miami (OH) 8 - 12 0.4 2.7 8.4 16.2 21.9 20.4 15.5 8.9 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
Central Michigan 6 - 14 1.7 7.9 17.1 23.1 22.3 15.4 8.0 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 4 - 16 5.9 18.4 25.1 22.8 15.4 7.9 3.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
Western Michigan 3 - 17 7.0 20.0 27.3 22.7 14.0 6.3 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Northern Illinois 3 - 17 8.9 23.4 29.1 22.6 11.5 3.7 0.8 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Toledo 92.5% 83.7 7.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 2.4% 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 3.3% 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Akron 10.0% 4.4 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ohio 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 2.0% 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 0.9% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 0.0% 0.0
Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan
Northern Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Toledo 36.6% 30.8% 5.9% 12   0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.2 2.7 6.1 13.6 9.0 1.6 0.1 63.4 8.5%
Kent St. 19.3% 18.4% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.2 5.1 7.7 3.4 0.7 0.1 80.7 1.1%
Buffalo 14.6% 14.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.9 4.7 2.2 0.4 85.4 0.1%
Akron 13.0% 12.6% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.9 4.9 3.1 0.9 0.1 87.0 0.5%
Ohio 8.5% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.3 1.6 0.3 91.6 0.0%
Bowling Green 7.7% 7.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 92.3 0.1%
Ball St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 0.8 95.5 0.0%
Miami (OH) 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 97.4 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Toledo 36.6% 3.5% 34.7% 9.4% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 19.3% 0.7% 18.9% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 14.6% 0.2% 14.5% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 13.0% 0.3% 12.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 8.5% 0.1% 8.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 7.7% 0.1% 7.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 4.5% 0.3% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 2.6% 0.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 92.8 7.2 0.1
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 94.9 4.6 0.0
2nd Round 20.3% 0.2 79.7 20.1 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0