Buffalo
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#105
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#154
Pace81.5#9
Improvement+1.0#110

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#87
First Shot+0.3#169
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#33
Layup/Dunks+6.0#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#280
Freethrows-1.5#269
Improvement+0.5#126

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#136
First Shot+3.2#74
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#290
Layups/Dunks-4.0#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.1#2
Freethrows-3.7#329
Improvement+0.4#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 14.1% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.4
.500 or above 86.2% 88.3% 69.2%
.500 or above in Conference 83.5% 86.0% 62.6%
Conference Champion 3.0% 3.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round13.3% 13.9% 7.6%
Second Round3.2% 3.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 89.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 48 - 114 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 220   Towson W 74-65 79%     1 - 0 +5.1 -5.3 +10.0
  Nov 28, 2020 193   Army L 74-78 75%     1 - 1 -6.4 -6.5 +0.5
  Dec 06, 2020 116   @ Bowling Green L 78-86 46%     1 - 2 0 - 1 -2.5 +0.9 -2.7
  Dec 15, 2020 188   @ Miami (OH) W 90-62 69%     2 - 2 1 - 1 +27.6 +10.8 +15.2
  Dec 19, 2020 47   @ Syracuse L 96-107 OT 22%     2 - 3 +1.8 +8.9 -5.0
  Jan 09, 2021 145   Ball St. W 86-69 69%     3 - 3 2 - 1 +16.5 +2.2 +12.1
  Jan 12, 2021 267   @ Western Michigan W 85-69 81%     4 - 3 3 - 1 +11.5 +6.8 +3.9
  Jan 15, 2021 116   Bowling Green L 69-76 60%     4 - 4 3 - 2 -5.1 -8.0 +3.3
  Jan 19, 2021 96   @ Kent St. L 81-84 40%     4 - 5 3 - 3 +4.1 +1.7 +2.7
  Jan 21, 2021 255   Eastern Michigan W 80-68 89%    
  Jan 26, 2021 239   Central Michigan W 91-80 88%    
  Jan 29, 2021 134   Ohio W 83-79 68%    
  Feb 02, 2021 145   @ Ball St. W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 06, 2021 188   Miami (OH) W 80-71 81%    
  Feb 09, 2021 267   Western Michigan W 80-67 90%    
  Feb 13, 2021 239   @ Central Michigan W 90-82 72%    
  Feb 16, 2021 255   @ Eastern Michigan W 78-69 75%    
  Feb 20, 2021 72   Toledo L 80-81 51%    
  Feb 27, 2021 134   @ Ohio W 82-81 46%    
  Mar 02, 2021 123   Akron W 80-77 65%    
  Mar 05, 2021 96   Kent St. W 82-81 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 1.4 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.7 6.1 1.5 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 8.0 7.6 1.7 0.0 19.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 8.3 8.7 1.4 0.1 20.3 4th
5th 1.3 6.2 7.2 1.7 0.1 16.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.2 5.2 2.1 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.9 2.8 3.2 1.1 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.6 9.1 14.2 20.3 20.7 16.0 9.4 2.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 48.3% 1.4    0.7 0.7 0.0
14-6 15.6% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 2.9% 42.8% 29.6% 13.2% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.7 18.8%
14-6 9.4% 31.2% 30.0% 1.2% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.1 6.5 1.8%
13-7 16.0% 20.3% 20.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.7 12.7
12-8 20.7% 11.5% 11.5% 13.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 18.3
11-9 20.3% 11.4% 11.4% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 18.0
10-10 14.2% 6.0% 6.0% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 13.4
9-11 9.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.8
8-12 4.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.1 0.0 4.5
7-13 2.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 2.0
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.4% 12.9% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.9 4.8 2.8 0.8 0.2 86.6 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 8.0 4.5 22.9 9.7 26.9 13.6 13.3 4.6 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 30.6% 11.5 0.2 15.1 15.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 15.3% 11.0 3.8 7.6 3.8 0.1