Ohio
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#124
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#152
Pace69.8#184
Improvement-3.2#320

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#60
First Shot+6.0#37
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#212
Layup/Dunks+2.5#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#42
Freethrows-1.0#242
Improvement+0.0#164

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#238
First Shot-2.4#242
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#180
Layups/Dunks-1.7#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#119
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#225
Freethrows-0.1#191
Improvement-3.3#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 8.5% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 87.6% 90.5% 66.7%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 72.4% 36.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round8.1% 8.5% 5.1%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 87.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 35 - 9
Quad 410 - 114 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 347   Chicago St. W 84-61 98%     1 - 0 +2.3 +6.0 -3.7
  Nov 26, 2020 315   N.C. A&T W 84-72 89%     2 - 0 +1.6 -5.3 +5.4
  Nov 27, 2020 9   @ Illinois L 75-77 8%     2 - 1 +17.0 +6.7 +10.4
  Dec 06, 2020 189   Cleveland St. W 101-46 75%     3 - 1 +51.0 +19.2 +26.6
  Dec 13, 2020 81   @ Marshall L 67-81 29%     3 - 2 -5.2 -1.7 -3.4
  Dec 22, 2020 118   @ Akron L 70-90 40%     3 - 3 0 - 1 -14.5 +4.0 -19.9
  Dec 30, 2020 131   Bowling Green L 75-83 59%     3 - 4 0 - 2 -7.4 +2.9 -10.5
  Jan 02, 2021 148   @ Ball St. W 78-68 51%     4 - 4 1 - 2 +12.8 +13.3 +0.3
  Jan 05, 2021 299   Northern Illinois W 76-73 89%     5 - 4 2 - 2 -7.5 +3.8 -11.0
  Jan 08, 2021 74   @ Toledo L 78-95 28%     5 - 5 2 - 3 -7.8 +0.7 -7.4
  Jan 12, 2021 166   Miami (OH) W 78-61 70%     6 - 5 3 - 3 +14.7 +5.2 +10.3
  Jan 16, 2021 96   Kent St. L 79-89 47%     6 - 6 3 - 4 -6.3 +5.3 -11.4
  Jan 23, 2021 148   Ball St. W 85-77 65%     7 - 6 4 - 4 +7.1 +5.6 +0.9
  Jan 26, 2021 269   Western Michigan W 77-66 88%    
  Jan 29, 2021 106   @ Buffalo L 80-84 34%    
  Feb 02, 2021 245   @ Central Michigan W 85-79 69%    
  Feb 06, 2021 264   Eastern Michigan W 78-67 87%    
  Feb 09, 2021 118   Akron W 76-75 58%    
  Feb 13, 2021 269   @ Western Michigan W 76-68 73%    
  Feb 16, 2021 245   Central Michigan W 87-77 85%    
  Feb 20, 2021 131   @ Bowling Green L 77-78 41%    
  Feb 27, 2021 106   Buffalo W 83-82 56%    
  Mar 02, 2021 96   @ Kent St. L 76-80 31%    
Projected Record 13 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.3 3.0 3.9 1.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.0 7.4 2.0 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 10.1 3.4 0.1 16.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 9.0 7.5 0.3 19.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 8.4 9.2 1.3 21.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 5.7 6.3 1.8 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.0 0.6 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 10.0 17.6 23.6 23.1 14.0 6.1 1.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 8.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.2% 24.6% 24.6% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9
13-7 6.1% 20.4% 20.4% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.9
12-8 14.0% 13.6% 13.6% 13.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 12.1
11-9 23.1% 9.7% 9.7% 13.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 20.8
10-10 23.6% 6.0% 6.0% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 22.1
9-11 17.6% 4.2% 4.2% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 16.8
8-12 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.8
7-13 3.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 3.2
6-14 1.0% 1.0
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.1 1.5 0.2 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.4 6.9 17.2 13.8 51.7 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%