Albany
America East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#215
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#266
Pace69.5#194
Improvement+0.5#151

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#257
First Shot-0.4#185
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#307
Layup/Dunks+0.7#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#185
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement-0.1#171

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#187
First Shot-1.7#222
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#104
Layups/Dunks-3.6#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#246
Freethrows+3.1#19
Improvement+0.6#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 9.5% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 50.1% 68.4% 38.6%
.500 or above in Conference 60.2% 78.0% 49.0%
Conference Champion 9.6% 19.7% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four4.0% 3.7% 4.2%
First Round5.6% 7.6% 4.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Hampshire (Away) - 38.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 52 - 6
Quad 48 - 511 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 19, 2020 174   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 64-65 45%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -3.7 -5.5 +1.8
  Dec 20, 2020 174   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 60-65 45%     0 - 2 0 - 2 -7.7 -14.7 +7.3
  Dec 22, 2020 249   Niagara L 65-70 63%     0 - 3 -12.3 -6.3 -6.5
  Jan 02, 2021 108   @ Vermont W 63-62 17%     1 - 3 1 - 2 +7.4 -2.6 +10.0
  Jan 03, 2021 108   @ Vermont L 66-74 17%     1 - 4 1 - 3 -1.6 +0.2 -2.2
  Jan 09, 2021 203   @ Saint Joseph's L 64-67 40%     1 - 5 -4.2 -9.9 +5.6
  Jan 16, 2021 230   NJIT W 83-75 60%     2 - 5 +1.5 -1.4 +2.0
  Jan 17, 2021 230   NJIT W 83-71 60%     3 - 5 +5.5 +5.5 -0.3
  Jan 23, 2021 211   @ New Hampshire L 64-71 42%     3 - 6 1 - 4 -8.9 -10.1 +1.3
  Jan 24, 2021 211   @ New Hampshire L 67-69 39%    
  Jan 30, 2021 241   Umass Lowell W 73-70 66%    
  Jan 31, 2021 241   Umass Lowell W 73-70 65%    
  Feb 06, 2021 322   @ Maine W 64-59 65%    
  Feb 07, 2021 322   @ Maine W 64-59 65%    
  Feb 12, 2021 257   Stony Brook W 70-66 68%    
  Feb 13, 2021 257   Stony Brook W 70-66 69%    
  Feb 18, 2021 336   Binghamton W 77-65 88%    
  Feb 19, 2021 336   Binghamton W 77-65 89%    
  Feb 27, 2021 216   @ Hartford L 65-67 40%    
  Feb 28, 2021 216   @ Hartford L 65-67 39%    
Projected Record 10 - 10 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.5 3.4 4.3 1.5 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 9.0 8.1 1.6 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 8.2 9.3 1.3 19.0 3rd
4th 3.7 9.8 0.5 14.1 4th
5th 0.6 7.8 2.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.3 4.6 5.7 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.9 6.2 1.0 13.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.1 3.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.2 11.5 18.4 20.9 19.3 12.7 5.8 1.5 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 1.5    1.1 0.4
11-5 73.0% 4.3    1.6 2.4 0.2
10-6 26.7% 3.4    0.4 1.9 1.1 0.0
9-7 2.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 3.1 4.7 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 1.5% 29.8% 29.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.0
11-5 5.8% 16.8% 16.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 4.9
10-6 12.7% 12.2% 12.2% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.1 11.2
9-7 19.3% 8.6% 8.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 17.7
8-8 20.9% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1 19.8
7-9 18.4% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 1.1 17.4
6-10 11.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.4 11.1
5-11 6.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 6.0
4-12 2.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-13 0.8% 0.8
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 5.6 92.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.9 3.4 21.8 57.5 17.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%