Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#249
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#260
Pace64.7#292
Improvement-2.5#301

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#219
First Shot-1.7#218
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#195
Layup/Dunks-2.7#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#197
Freethrows+1.3#90
Improvement+0.4#135

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#271
First Shot-3.2#274
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#204
Layups/Dunks-1.7#236
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#316
Freethrows+0.0#180
Improvement-2.8#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 6.0% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 20.2% 29.9% 11.2%
.500 or above in Conference 38.4% 54.5% 23.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.3%
First Four3.1% 3.3% 3.0%
First Round3.2% 4.5% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Away) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 48 - 711 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 03, 2020 36   @ Syracuse L 45-75 5%     0 - 1 -16.4 -25.4 +10.6
  Dec 11, 2020 167   @ St. Peter's L 54-70 26%     0 - 2 0 - 1 -14.6 -15.2 +0.8
  Dec 12, 2020 167   @ St. Peter's L 49-53 26%     0 - 3 0 - 2 -2.6 -12.6 +9.4
  Dec 18, 2020 312   Fairfield W 68-51 74%     1 - 3 1 - 2 +4.9 -2.8 +9.1
  Dec 19, 2020 312   Fairfield W 81-61 74%     2 - 3 2 - 2 +7.9 +19.7 -8.0
  Dec 22, 2020 215   @ Albany W 70-65 37%     3 - 3 +3.0 +3.8 -0.4
  Jan 01, 2021 288   @ Marist L 61-63 51%     3 - 4 2 - 3 -7.8 -8.1 +0.1
  Jan 02, 2021 288   @ Marist W 86-72 51%     4 - 4 3 - 3 +8.2 +19.3 -10.0
  Jan 08, 2021 280   Rider L 70-76 65%     4 - 5 3 - 4 -15.3 -0.3 -15.7
  Jan 09, 2021 280   Rider W 66-55 65%     5 - 5 4 - 4 +1.7 -6.4 +9.2
  Jan 15, 2021 296   @ Manhattan L 49-58 54%     5 - 6 4 - 5 -15.5 -19.5 +3.6
  Jan 16, 2021 296   @ Manhattan L 55-58 54%     5 - 7 4 - 6 -9.5 -5.0 -5.0
  Jan 22, 2021 271   @ Quinnipiac W 59-56 48%     6 - 7 5 - 6 -1.9 -12.7 +10.7
  Jan 22, 2021 288   @ Marist W 64-63 48%    
  Jan 23, 2021 271   @ Quinnipiac L 69-78 48%     6 - 8 5 - 7 -13.9 +1.3 -15.6
  Jan 23, 2021 288   @ Marist W 64-63 48%    
  Jan 29, 2021 150   Siena L 67-71 39%    
  Jan 30, 2021 150   Siena L 67-71 39%    
  Feb 12, 2021 159   Monmouth L 73-77 41%    
  Feb 13, 2021 159   Monmouth L 73-77 41%    
  Mar 04, 2021 187   @ Iona L 66-71 28%    
  Mar 05, 2021 242   Canisius W 71-69 60%    
  Mar 05, 2021 187   @ Iona L 66-71 28%    
  Mar 06, 2021 242   Canisius W 71-69 60%    
Projected Record 10 - 14 9 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.6 0.7 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.8 6.4 11.6 7.7 2.0 0.1 28.6 4th
5th 0.4 6.7 12.3 5.4 0.6 25.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.9 9.2 4.1 0.2 17.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 5.4 3.1 0.2 10.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 1.9 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.9 9th
10th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
Total 1.1 5.6 11.9 19.9 23.2 18.7 12.2 5.5 1.6 0.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 47.5% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 12.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.3% 39.3% 39.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-7 1.6% 20.1% 20.1% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.3
12-8 5.5% 11.5% 11.5% 15.7 0.2 0.4 4.8
11-9 12.2% 7.7% 7.7% 15.8 0.2 0.8 11.3
10-10 18.7% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1 17.6
9-11 23.2% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.9 22.2
8-12 19.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.5 19.4
7-13 11.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 11.7
6-14 5.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.6
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.0 95.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.9 9.5 9.5 66.7 14.3
Lose Out 0.4%