Vermont
America East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#106
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#203
Pace65.3#282
Improvement+3.1#37

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#125
First Shot+1.4#137
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#157
Layup/Dunks+0.2#159
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#79
Freethrows+1.2#100
Improvement+1.3#82

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#98
First Shot+2.0#109
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#112
Layups/Dunks-1.1#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#105
Freethrows+2.2#51
Improvement+1.8#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.1% 55.4% 44.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.8
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 97.2%
Conference Champion 88.1% 90.8% 66.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.6% 2.7%
First Round53.8% 55.2% 43.3%
Second Round6.7% 7.1% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.7% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 13 - 2
Quad 411 - 314 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 21, 2020 240   @ Umass Lowell L 65-73 78%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -11.5 -11.0 -0.3
  Dec 22, 2020 240   @ Umass Lowell W 62-53 78%     1 - 1 1 - 1 +5.5 -12.8 +18.4
  Dec 27, 2020 247   NJIT W 92-78 86%     2 - 1 +6.9 +9.4 -3.8
  Dec 28, 2020 247   NJIT L 80-81 2OT 86%     2 - 2 -8.1 +0.6 -8.7
  Jan 02, 2021 197   Albany L 62-63 80%     2 - 3 1 - 2 -5.4 -8.8 +3.4
  Jan 03, 2021 197   Albany W 74-66 80%     3 - 3 2 - 2 +3.6 +3.4 +0.7
  Jan 09, 2021 335   @ Binghamton W 76-60 93%     4 - 3 3 - 2 +4.1 +2.5 +3.4
  Jan 10, 2021 335   @ Binghamton W 84-44 93%     5 - 3 4 - 2 +28.1 +12.0 +20.9
  Jan 16, 2021 322   Maine W 65-30 94%     6 - 3 5 - 2 +22.0 -7.9 +30.9
  Jan 17, 2021 322   Maine W 88-60 94%     7 - 3 6 - 2 +15.0 +11.8 +2.7
  Jan 30, 2021 242   Stony Brook W 71-60 89%    
  Jan 31, 2021 242   Stony Brook W 71-60 88%    
  Feb 18, 2021 235   New Hampshire W 73-62 88%    
  Feb 19, 2021 235   New Hampshire W 73-62 88%    
  Feb 27, 2021 173   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 67-63 59%    
  Feb 28, 2021 173   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 67-63 59%    
Projected Record 12 - 4 11 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.4 22.9 36.8 24.9 88.1 1st
2nd 0.7 5.3 2.8 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 1.2 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.3 9.9 25.7 36.8 24.9 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 24.9    24.9
11-5 100.0% 36.8    35.4 1.4
10-6 89.1% 22.9    13.0 8.6 1.3 0.0
9-7 34.5% 3.4    0.4 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
8-8 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 88.1% 88.1 73.7 11.6 2.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 24.9% 66.5% 66.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 2.2 8.7 5.3 0.3 8.3
11-5 36.8% 57.2% 57.2% 14.2 0.1 3.0 11.2 6.4 0.4 15.8
10-6 25.7% 46.8% 46.8% 14.8 0.3 3.7 6.5 1.6 13.7
9-7 9.9% 37.5% 37.5% 15.3 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.4 6.2
8-8 2.3% 29.5% 29.5% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.6
7-9 0.4% 23.0% 23.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3
6-10 0.0% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 54.1% 54.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 2.3 12.0 20.6 15.3 3.9 45.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 16.6% 100.0% 13.2 0.0 0.5 13.3 52.4 32.0 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5%