Belmont
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#97
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#75
Pace76.3#40
Improvement+1.3#91

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#65
First Shot+8.0#16
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#320
Layup/Dunks+6.5#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#64
Freethrows-0.2#188
Improvement+1.6#64

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#167
First Shot-0.8#194
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#114
Layups/Dunks+1.7#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#291
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#283
Freethrows+2.1#54
Improvement-0.3#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.0% 53.4% 48.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 93.2% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.3% 94.6% 86.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round52.4% 53.1% 48.8%
Second Round8.0% 8.1% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.2% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Away) - 84.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 35 - 25 - 2
Quad 419 - 224 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 329   Howard W 95-78 94%     1 - 0 +4.4 +2.5 +0.3
  Nov 27, 2020 153   George Mason W 77-67 67%     2 - 0 +10.6 +6.7 +3.9
  Dec 02, 2020 300   @ Tennessee St. W 79-67 84%    
  Dec 05, 2020 262   Samford L 83-96 88%     2 - 1 -21.0 -5.7 -13.5
  Dec 08, 2020 300   Tennessee St. W 79-64 92%     3 - 1 1 - 0 +4.6 -2.7 +5.8
  Dec 12, 2020 209   @ Lipscomb W 81-71 73%     4 - 1 +8.6 +3.7 +4.8
  Dec 16, 2020 341   Kennesaw St. W 64-53 97%     5 - 1 -5.5 -14.0 +8.4
  Dec 18, 2020 300   @ Tennessee St. W 88-63 86%     6 - 1 2 - 0 +18.2 +9.0 +7.3
  Dec 21, 2020 238   @ Evansville W 72-63 78%     7 - 1 +5.8 +3.2 +3.4
  Dec 30, 2020 156   Murray St. W 68-55 73%     8 - 1 3 - 0 +11.6 +0.5 +11.9
  Jan 02, 2021 339   @ Tennessee Martin W 90-69 94%     9 - 1 4 - 0 +8.7 +3.4 +4.3
  Jan 07, 2021 303   Southeast Missouri St. W 77-66 92%     10 - 1 5 - 0 +0.2 -3.5 +3.2
  Jan 09, 2021 339   Tennessee Martin W 89-69 96%     11 - 1 6 - 0 +4.1 +1.4 +1.9
  Jan 14, 2021 309   @ Tennessee Tech W 88-67 88%     12 - 1 7 - 0 +13.2 +6.2 +5.6
  Jan 16, 2021 206   @ Jacksonville St. W 98-91 73%     13 - 1 8 - 0 +5.8 +20.6 -15.1
  Jan 21, 2021 234   Eastern Illinois W 85-73 88%    
  Jan 23, 2021 306   SIU Edwardsville W 84-68 95%    
  Jan 28, 2021 185   @ Austin Peay W 80-75 65%    
  Jan 30, 2021 156   @ Murray St. W 76-73 57%    
  Feb 04, 2021 234   @ Eastern Illinois W 83-75 74%    
  Feb 06, 2021 306   @ SIU Edwardsville W 82-70 84%    
  Feb 11, 2021 163   Eastern Kentucky W 85-78 77%    
  Feb 13, 2021 196   Morehead St. W 75-66 84%    
  Feb 18, 2021 206   Jacksonville St. W 79-69 85%    
  Feb 20, 2021 309   Tennessee Tech W 85-69 95%    
  Feb 25, 2021 163   @ Eastern Kentucky W 83-80 58%    
  Feb 27, 2021 196   @ Morehead St. W 74-68 67%    
Projected Record 23 - 4 18 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.9 8.3 15.0 23.1 22.8 16.2 87.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.0 0.3 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.2 10.4 15.4 23.1 22.8 16.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 16.2    16.2
19-1 100.0% 22.8    22.8
18-2 100.0% 23.1    22.7 0.4
17-3 98.0% 15.0    13.0 1.9 0.1
16-4 79.6% 8.3    5.7 2.3 0.3
15-5 45.3% 1.9    0.7 1.0 0.2
14-6 17.5% 0.3    0.1 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 87.6% 87.6 81.3 5.6 0.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 16.2% 61.6% 60.9% 0.7% 12.9 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.4 2.0 0.1 6.2 1.8%
19-1 22.8% 56.8% 56.8% 13.3 0.0 1.3 6.7 4.3 0.7 9.9
18-2 23.1% 52.7% 52.7% 13.7 0.5 4.3 6.0 1.4 10.9
17-3 15.4% 47.7% 47.7% 14.0 2.0 3.5 1.8 0.0 8.0
16-4 10.4% 44.9% 44.9% 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.8 0.2 5.7
15-5 4.2% 31.5% 31.5% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 2.9
14-6 1.6% 30.2% 30.2% 15.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.1
13-7 0.5% 23.0% 23.0% 15.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
12-8 0.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.1% 0.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 49.0% 48.9% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 4.0 18.9 18.4 6.8 0.6 51.0 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 11.1 2.2 3.3 6.6 10.0 5.6 20.7 29.8 19.7 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2% 6.7% 12.5 3.4 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 7.9% 12.0 3.8 0.1 4.0