Evansville
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#241
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#216
Pace58.2#347
Improvement+2.5#51

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#216
First Shot+2.0#121
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#334
Layup/Dunks-8.1#345
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.6#2
Freethrows+0.1#173
Improvement+2.6#36

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#267
First Shot-2.1#237
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#254
Layups/Dunks-2.5#249
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#73
Freethrows-0.5#206
Improvement+0.0#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 1.0% 1.7% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 31.1% 42.1% 16.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 1.1% 11.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 57.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 20 - 30 - 9
Quad 33 - 63 - 15
Quad 47 - 510 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 37   @ Louisville L 44-79 5%     0 - 1 -21.6 -18.7 -6.4
  Nov 27, 2020 259   Prairie View L 61-64 54%     0 - 2 -9.1 -8.0 -1.3
  Dec 02, 2020 342   @ Tennessee Martin L 87-93 2OT 78%     0 - 3 -19.3 -10.7 -7.7
  Dec 09, 2020 236   Eastern Illinois W 68-65 56%     1 - 3 -3.5 -1.1 -2.1
  Dec 15, 2020 307   Southeast Missouri St. W 66-63 OT 72%     2 - 3 -8.1 -9.9 +2.0
  Dec 21, 2020 97   Belmont L 63-72 22%     2 - 4 -5.8 -4.9 -1.7
  Dec 27, 2020 173   @ Southern Illinois L 57-63 28%     2 - 5 0 - 1 -5.1 -9.5 +3.7
  Dec 28, 2020 173   @ Southern Illinois W 84-72 28%     3 - 5 1 - 1 +12.9 +18.8 -4.8
  Jan 02, 2021 148   Northern Iowa W 65-61 33%     4 - 5 2 - 1 +3.4 -8.8 +12.3
  Jan 03, 2021 148   Northern Iowa W 70-64 33%     5 - 5 3 - 1 +5.4 +6.1 +0.3
  Jan 09, 2021 208   Illinois St. W 57-48 50%     6 - 5 4 - 1 +4.1 -7.4 +13.2
  Jan 10, 2021 208   Illinois St. L 68-73 50%     6 - 6 4 - 2 -9.9 +2.0 -12.6
  Jan 16, 2021 115   @ Bradley L 60-69 16%     6 - 7 4 - 3 -3.5 +3.7 -9.1
  Jan 17, 2021 115   @ Bradley L 55-86 16%     6 - 8 4 - 4 -25.5 -8.8 -19.9
  Jan 30, 2021 220   Valparaiso W 65-64 58%    
  Jan 31, 2021 220   Valparaiso W 65-64 56%    
  Feb 06, 2021 29   @ Loyola Chicago L 52-72 3%    
  Feb 07, 2021 29   @ Loyola Chicago L 52-72 2%    
  Feb 21, 2021 47   @ Drake L 57-75 4%    
  Feb 26, 2021 92   Missouri St. L 63-72 24%    
  Feb 27, 2021 92   Missouri St. L 63-72 24%    
  Mar 08, 2021 148   @ Northern Iowa L 64-72 19%    
  Mar 08, 2021 124   @ Indiana St. L 59-69 16%    
  Mar 08, 2021 47   @ Drake L 57-75 4%    
  Mar 08, 2021 173   @ Southern Illinois L 61-67 26%    
  Mar 09, 2021 148   Northern Iowa L 66-70 38%    
  Mar 09, 2021 124   Indiana St. L 61-67 34%    
  Mar 09, 2021 47   Drake L 59-73 12%    
  Mar 09, 2021 173   Southern Illinois L 63-65 46%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 8 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 6.1 3.6 0.6 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 8.1 5.8 1.1 0.0 17.8 6th
7th 0.3 3.5 10.5 8.4 1.6 0.0 24.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 9.7 7.3 1.3 0.0 21.4 8th
9th 1.1 4.5 3.5 0.8 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.8 10th
Total 2.1 8.6 17.0 21.2 20.0 15.0 9.1 4.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0%
15-3 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 10.6% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.7% 1.6% 1.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 1.6
11-7 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.5
10-8 9.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.0
9-9 15.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.0
8-10 20.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.9
7-11 21.2% 21.2
6-12 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.0
5-13 8.6% 8.6
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%