Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#204
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#194
Pace66.9#254
Improvement+3.6#14

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#145
First Shot+2.9#105
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#277
Layup/Dunks+1.6#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#190
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement+0.0#162

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#287
First Shot-2.8#264
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#242
Layups/Dunks-0.7#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#216
Freethrows+1.0#126
Improvement+3.6#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 14.1% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 78.3% 87.1% 63.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 97.7% 89.7%
Conference Champion 46.0% 56.4% 27.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.2% 6.2% 6.3%
First Round9.6% 11.2% 6.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 31 - 32 - 6
Quad 412 - 514 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 305   Lamar W 76-73 73%     1 - 0 -6.4 -3.1 -3.4
  Nov 29, 2020 180   @ Tulane L 66-68 38%     1 - 1 -1.9 +1.1 -3.2
  Dec 02, 2020 82   @ Cincinnati L 49-67 14%     1 - 2 -9.6 -14.8 +3.8
  Dec 05, 2020 29   @ Arkansas L 50-86 6%     1 - 3 -21.8 -18.0 -2.7
  Dec 07, 2020 299   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 77-82 65%     1 - 4 -12.1 +5.2 -17.6
  Dec 09, 2020 299   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-74 OT 75%     2 - 4 -4.3 -2.0 -2.6
  Dec 12, 2020 94   Belmont L 71-81 26%     2 - 5 -6.4 -1.8 -4.5
  Jan 01, 2021 105   Liberty W 77-70 29%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +9.8 +5.7 +4.1
  Jan 02, 2021 105   Liberty L 50-66 29%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -13.2 -16.5 +1.6
  Jan 08, 2021 275   @ Bellarmine W 77-72 59%     4 - 6 2 - 1 -0.5 +7.9 -8.2
  Jan 09, 2021 275   @ Bellarmine W 65-58 59%     5 - 6 3 - 1 +1.5 +5.0 -2.2
  Jan 21, 2021 216   Florida Gulf Coast W 69-67 64%    
  Jan 23, 2021 216   Florida Gulf Coast W 69-67 63%    
  Jan 29, 2021 263   @ Stetson W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 30, 2021 263   @ Stetson W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 04, 2021 339   Kennesaw St. W 75-63 90%    
  Feb 06, 2021 339   Kennesaw St. W 75-63 90%    
  Feb 12, 2021 290   @ Jacksonville W 71-68 57%    
  Feb 13, 2021 290   @ Jacksonville W 71-68 57%    
  Feb 18, 2021 269   North Florida W 78-73 72%    
  Feb 20, 2021 269   North Florida W 78-73 72%    
  Feb 26, 2021 296   @ North Alabama W 74-70 58%    
  Feb 27, 2021 296   @ North Alabama W 74-70 59%    
Projected Record 13 - 10 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.6 8.7 13.9 12.5 6.4 1.5 46.0 1st
2nd 0.7 5.1 11.5 10.1 4.1 0.0 31.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 6.3 2.8 0.4 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.1 1.0 0.1 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.5 7.5 12.7 17.0 19.2 18.0 12.5 6.4 1.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5
14-2 100.0% 6.4    6.4
13-3 99.8% 12.5    9.7 2.8 0.0
12-4 77.3% 13.9    8.0 5.7 0.2
11-5 45.5% 8.7    3.3 4.4 1.0 0.0
10-6 15.4% 2.6    0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1
9-7 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 46.0% 46.0 29.5 14.1 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 1.5% 26.3% 26.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.1
14-2 6.4% 21.0% 21.0% 14.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.0
13-3 12.5% 17.0% 17.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.9 10.4
12-4 18.0% 15.7% 15.7% 15.7 0.0 0.7 2.1 15.2
11-5 19.2% 13.2% 13.2% 15.9 0.2 2.4 16.6
10-6 17.0% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8 15.2
9-7 12.7% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1 11.6
8-8 7.5% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.4 7.2
7-9 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 3.4
6-10 1.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-11 0.4% 0.4
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 8.8 87.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.6 2.0 38.5 52.1 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%