IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Charlotte
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.4	#165
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.9	#161

Pace	60.3	#344
Improvement	+0.2	#157

Offense
Total Offense	-2.2	#227

First Shot	+1.1	#154
After Offensive Rebound	-3.3	#322

Layup/Dunks	-1.1	#219
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.2	#106
3 Pt Jumpshots	-2.8	#269
Freethrows	+3.9	#11

Improvement	-1.2	#256

Defense
Total Defense	+1.8	#125

First Shot	-2.0	#230
After Offensive Rebounds	+3.8	#7

Layups/Dunks	-1.4	#227
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.4	#150
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.7	#235
Freethrows	+0.6	#147

Improvement	+1.5	#74

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.7%	3.2%	1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	14.0	14.2

.500 or above	77.4%	84.2%	58.7%
.500 or above in Conference	57.2%	65.7%	33.9%
Conference Champion	0.8%	1.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	1.2%	0.4%	3.2%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	2.7%	3.2%	1.3%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	2 - 2	2 - 2
Quad 3	4 - 6	6 - 8
Quad 4	7 - 3	13 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 27, 2020	142	East Carolina	L	57-66	50%	0 - 1			-9.5	-10.5	+0.5
Dec 04, 2020	137	Georgia St.	L	65-76	48%	0 - 2			-10.8	-5.7	-5.5
Dec 07, 2020	345	South Carolina St.	W	78-40	96%	1 - 2			+16.6	-0.2	+18.8
Dec 11, 2020	171	Appalachian St.	L	57-61	58%	1 - 3			-6.5	-13.8	+6.9
Dec 15, 2020	69	@ Davidson	W	63-52	16%	2 - 3			+21.1	+3.8	+19.3
Dec 19, 2020	315	N.C. A&T	W	76-72	86%	3 - 3			-8.2	+2.4	-10.3
Dec 22, 2020	205	@ George Washington	W	66-65	53%	4 - 3			-0.3	-3.2	+3.0
Jan 01, 2021	84	Western Kentucky	L	63-67	30%	4 - 4	0 - 1		+0.9	-5.8	+6.6
Jan 02, 2021	84	Western Kentucky	W	75-71 OT	30%	5 - 4	1 - 1		+8.9	+0.1	+8.6
Jan 15, 2021	98	UAB	L	37-61	35%	5 - 5	1 - 2		-20.4	-27.7	+3.6
Jan 16, 2021	98	UAB	W	70-55	35%	6 - 5	2 - 2		+18.6	+13.6	+8.0
Jan 22, 2021	178	@ Florida Atlantic	L	53-66 OT	45%	6 - 6	2 - 3		-12.2	-22.6	+11.0
Jan 23, 2021	178	@ Florida Atlantic	W	74-71	45%	7 - 6	3 - 3		+3.8	+8.3	-4.2
Jan 29, 2021	220	Florida International	W	70-65	73%
Jan 30, 2021	220	Florida International	W	70-65	73%
Feb 05, 2021	272	@ Middle Tennessee	W	63-59	63%
Feb 06, 2021	272	@ Middle Tennessee	W	63-59	62%
Feb 10, 2021	158	Old Dominion	W	61-60	59%
Feb 13, 2021	158	@ Old Dominion	L	59-62	38%
Feb 19, 2021	200	Texas San Antonio	W	73-69	70%
Feb 20, 2021	200	Texas San Antonio	W	73-69	69%
Feb 26, 2021	147	@ UTEP	L	62-65	35%
Feb 27, 2021	147	@ UTEP	L	62-65	35%
Projected Record						13 - 10	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.4	0.3							0.8	1st
2nd											0.1	1.3	1.8	0.5							3.7	2nd
3rd										0.1	2.2	4.5	2.3	0.1							9.3	3rd
4th									0.0	1.6	6.9	4.0	0.4								12.8	4th
5th									0.8	6.9	7.5	1.1	0.0								16.3	5th
6th								0.2	4.4	9.2	1.5	0.0									15.4	6th
7th								1.8	7.8	3.8	0.1										13.6	7th
8th							0.3	5.1	5.2	0.4											11.0	8th
9th						0.0	1.7	4.8	0.9												7.4	9th
10th						0.2	2.9	1.3	0.0												4.5	10th
11th					0.0	1.0	1.4	0.1													2.6	11th
12th					0.2	1.0	0.3														1.5	12th
13th				0.1	0.4	0.5															0.9	13th
14th				0.1	0.1	0.1															0.3	14th

Total				0.2	0.8	2.7	6.6	13.4	19.1	22.0	18.4	11.0	4.9	0.9								Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5	34.5%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	8.4%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.0%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.8%	0.8		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5	0.9%		14.1%	14.1%		12.6											0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0			0.8
12-6	4.9%		8.7%	8.7%		13.4													0.1	0.2	0.2			4.5
11-7	11.0%		6.5%	6.5%		13.7													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1		10.3
10-8	18.4%		3.2%	3.2%		14.1														0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	17.9
9-9	22.0%		2.0%	2.0%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	21.6
8-10	19.1%		1.5%	1.5%		14.9															0.1	0.2	0.0	18.8
7-11	13.4%		0.6%	0.6%		15.1																0.1	0.0	13.4
6-12	6.6%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	6.6
5-13	2.7%																							2.7
4-14	0.8%																							0.8
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		2.7%	2.7%	0.0%	14.0											0.0		0.1	0.6	1.1	0.7	0.2	97.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	12.6										12.0		36.0	20.0	32.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%
Lose Out	0.2%