Charlotte
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#165
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#161
Pace60.3#344
Improvement+0.2#157

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#227
First Shot+1.1#154
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#322
Layup/Dunks-1.1#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#106
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#269
Freethrows+3.9#11
Improvement-1.2#256

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#125
First Shot-2.0#230
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#7
Layups/Dunks-1.4#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#235
Freethrows+0.6#147
Improvement+1.5#74
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.2% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.2
.500 or above 77.4% 84.2% 58.7%
.500 or above in Conference 57.2% 65.7% 33.9%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.4% 3.2%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round2.7% 3.2% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 34 - 66 - 8
Quad 47 - 313 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 142   East Carolina L 57-66 50%     0 - 1 -9.5 -10.5 +0.5
  Dec 04, 2020 137   Georgia St. L 65-76 48%     0 - 2 -10.8 -5.7 -5.5
  Dec 07, 2020 345   South Carolina St. W 78-40 96%     1 - 2 +16.6 -0.2 +18.8
  Dec 11, 2020 171   Appalachian St. L 57-61 58%     1 - 3 -6.5 -13.8 +6.9
  Dec 15, 2020 69   @ Davidson W 63-52 16%     2 - 3 +21.1 +3.8 +19.3
  Dec 19, 2020 315   N.C. A&T W 76-72 86%     3 - 3 -8.2 +2.4 -10.3
  Dec 22, 2020 205   @ George Washington W 66-65 53%     4 - 3 -0.3 -3.2 +3.0
  Jan 01, 2021 84   Western Kentucky L 63-67 30%     4 - 4 0 - 1 +0.9 -5.8 +6.6
  Jan 02, 2021 84   Western Kentucky W 75-71 OT 30%     5 - 4 1 - 1 +8.9 +0.1 +8.6
  Jan 15, 2021 98   UAB L 37-61 35%     5 - 5 1 - 2 -20.4 -27.7 +3.6
  Jan 16, 2021 98   UAB W 70-55 35%     6 - 5 2 - 2 +18.6 +13.6 +8.0
  Jan 22, 2021 178   @ Florida Atlantic L 53-66 OT 45%     6 - 6 2 - 3 -12.2 -22.6 +11.0
  Jan 23, 2021 178   @ Florida Atlantic W 74-71 45%     7 - 6 3 - 3 +3.8 +8.3 -4.2
  Jan 29, 2021 220   Florida International W 70-65 73%    
  Jan 30, 2021 220   Florida International W 70-65 73%    
  Feb 05, 2021 272   @ Middle Tennessee W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 06, 2021 272   @ Middle Tennessee W 63-59 62%    
  Feb 10, 2021 158   Old Dominion W 61-60 59%    
  Feb 13, 2021 158   @ Old Dominion L 59-62 38%    
  Feb 19, 2021 200   Texas San Antonio W 73-69 70%    
  Feb 20, 2021 200   Texas San Antonio W 73-69 69%    
  Feb 26, 2021 147   @ UTEP L 62-65 35%    
  Feb 27, 2021 147   @ UTEP L 62-65 35%    
Projected Record 13 - 10 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.5 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 4.5 2.3 0.1 9.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 6.9 4.0 0.4 12.8 4th
5th 0.8 6.9 7.5 1.1 0.0 16.3 5th
6th 0.2 4.4 9.2 1.5 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 1.8 7.8 3.8 0.1 13.6 7th
8th 0.3 5.1 5.2 0.4 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 4.8 0.9 7.4 9th
10th 0.2 2.9 1.3 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 1.4 0.1 2.6 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 14th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.6 13.4 19.1 22.0 18.4 11.0 4.9 0.9 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 34.5% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.9% 14.1% 14.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 4.9% 8.7% 8.7% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 4.5
11-7 11.0% 6.5% 6.5% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 10.3
10-8 18.4% 3.2% 3.2% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 17.9
9-9 22.0% 2.0% 2.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 21.6
8-10 19.1% 1.5% 1.5% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 18.8
7-11 13.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.1 0.1 0.0 13.4
6-12 6.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.6
5-13 2.7% 2.7
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.6 12.0 36.0 20.0 32.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.2%