Davidson
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#66
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#89
Pace62.0#333
Improvement+0.5#142

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#28
First Shot+5.5#44
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#75
Layup/Dunks+1.5#123
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#34
Freethrows-0.1#178
Improvement-1.3#264

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#144
First Shot-1.1#198
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#47
Layups/Dunks+0.2#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#259
Freethrows+0.6#148
Improvement+1.9#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 17.7% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.9% 5.0% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.5 11.1 12.3
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 99.1% 93.8%
Conference Champion 50.3% 64.6% 34.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 2.7% 0.5%
First Round13.2% 16.3% 9.9%
Second Round4.4% 5.8% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.0% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Away) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 36 - 39 - 8
Quad 47 - 116 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 305   High Point W 82-73 95%     1 - 0 -2.0 +6.6 -8.3
  Nov 30, 2020 10   Texas L 76-78 21%     1 - 1 +14.7 +20.0 -5.5
  Dec 01, 2020 54   Providence L 62-63 42%     1 - 2 +9.5 +2.9 +6.4
  Dec 02, 2020 113   UNLV W 77-73 67%     2 - 2 +7.9 +7.9 +0.2
  Dec 11, 2020 255   Georgia Southern W 77-45 92%     3 - 2 +24.3 +13.4 +15.9
  Dec 15, 2020 163   Charlotte L 52-63 83%     3 - 3 -12.7 -10.4 -4.4
  Dec 18, 2020 67   @ Rhode Island W 67-58 43%     4 - 3 1 - 0 +19.1 +6.6 +13.3
  Dec 22, 2020 137   Vanderbilt W 85-65 78%     5 - 3 +20.1 +13.8 +7.2
  Dec 30, 2020 50   Richmond L 74-80 48%     5 - 4 1 - 1 +2.8 +6.5 -3.9
  Jan 05, 2021 127   @ Duquesne W 61-48 65%     6 - 4 2 - 1 +17.5 -4.5 +22.7
  Jan 08, 2021 75   Dayton L 78-89 OT 61%     6 - 5 2 - 2 -5.6 +5.8 -11.1
  Jan 12, 2021 201   Saint Joseph's W 80-66 88%     7 - 5 3 - 2 +9.3 +1.0 +8.0
  Jan 16, 2021 184   @ La Salle W 77-53 79%     8 - 5 4 - 2 +23.9 +17.3 +10.2
  Jan 20, 2021 282   Fordham W 73-58 94%     9 - 5 5 - 2 +5.8 +9.5 -2.0
  Jan 24, 2021 101   @ Massachusetts W 76-74 52%    
  Jan 30, 2021 57   St. Bonaventure W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 06, 2021 282   @ Fordham W 67-53 88%    
  Feb 13, 2021 67   Rhode Island W 72-70 61%    
  Feb 17, 2021 127   Duquesne W 71-64 78%    
  Feb 20, 2021 201   @ Saint Joseph's W 80-71 78%    
  Feb 24, 2021 154   @ George Mason W 69-63 67%    
  Feb 27, 2021 72   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-67 64%    
  Mar 02, 2021 207   George Washington W 79-66 91%    
Projected Record 15 - 8 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 8.1 19.7 16.3 5.7 50.3 1st
2nd 0.0 3.6 11.5 5.7 0.8 0.0 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.5 6.9 4.3 0.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 4.1 0.4 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.2 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 7.8 15.8 24.3 25.8 17.1 5.7 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 5.7    5.4 0.3
13-5 95.2% 16.3    13.3 2.9 0.1
12-6 76.5% 19.7    9.6 8.0 2.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 33.3% 8.1    1.0 3.0 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
10-8 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
Total 50.3% 50.3 29.3 14.2 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 5.7% 43.5% 20.4% 23.2% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 3.2 29.1%
13-5 17.1% 23.0% 17.3% 5.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 13.2 6.9%
12-6 25.8% 14.0% 13.1% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 22.2 1.0%
11-7 24.3% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 21.9 0.1%
10-8 15.8% 7.8% 7.8% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 14.6
9-9 7.8% 3.4% 3.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5
8-10 2.7% 1.9% 1.9% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
7-11 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.1% 11.5% 2.5% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.5 5.6 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 85.9 2.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 6.6 2.4 6.0 17.2 27.2 20.0 11.4 8.6 3.1 3.4 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 50.7% 10.9 1.9 4.3 9.4 19.3 14.1 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7% 29.1% 11.2 0.6 1.3 4.0 10.5 10.6 2.2