Drake
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#45
Expected Predictive Rating+17.7#7
Pace68.0#222
Improvement+1.1#110

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#49
First Shot+6.7#28
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#230
Layup/Dunks+5.1#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#148
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement-2.2#308

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#50
First Shot+6.8#15
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#279
Layups/Dunks+2.1#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#11
Freethrows-0.6#213
Improvement+3.3#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 9.1% 9.4% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 22.9% 23.7% 5.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 73.3% 53.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.5% 58.2% 37.0%
Average Seed 52.1 8.2 9.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 29.5% 28.3% 59.1%
Conference Champion 96.3% 96.7% 87.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.5% 6.5% 7.6%
First Round69.2% 70.0% 50.0%
Second Round35.5% 36.1% 21.6%
Sweet Sixteen13.1% 13.4% 6.2%
Elite Eight4.5% 4.6% 1.9%
Final Four1.5% 1.5% 0.9%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 95.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 24 - 15 - 2
Quad 39 - 114 - 4
Quad 415 - 128 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 152   @ Kansas St. W 80-70 80%     1 - 0 +12.2 +15.9 -2.9
  Nov 27, 2020 169   South Dakota W 69-53 86%     2 - 0 +15.3 +0.9 +15.8
  Dec 03, 2020 261   Nebraska Omaha W 87-66 95%     3 - 0 +13.0 +6.6 +5.4
  Dec 13, 2020 289   Air Force W 81-53 96%     4 - 0 +18.2 +7.3 +12.8
  Dec 18, 2020 169   @ South Dakota W 75-57 83%     5 - 0 +18.9 +1.2 +17.6
  Dec 20, 2020 347   Chicago St. W 111-67 99%     6 - 0 +21.6 +24.9 -6.2
  Dec 22, 2020 281   North Dakota W 88-55 96%     7 - 0 +23.9 +11.6 +12.2
  Dec 27, 2020 129   @ Indiana St. W 81-63 74%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +22.4 +12.8 +10.0
  Dec 28, 2020 129   @ Indiana St. W 73-66 74%     9 - 0 2 - 0 +11.4 +7.3 +4.5
  Jan 03, 2021 179   Southern Illinois W 73-55 90%     10 - 0 3 - 0 +15.1 +7.5 +9.8
  Jan 04, 2021 179   Southern Illinois W 86-55 90%     11 - 0 4 - 0 +28.1 +16.7 +13.3
  Jan 26, 2021 92   @ Missouri St. W 68-61 64%     12 - 0 5 - 0 +14.3 -4.7 +18.7
  Jan 31, 2021 225   Illinois St. W 79-62 96%    
  Feb 01, 2021 225   Illinois St. W 79-62 96%    
  Feb 06, 2021 200   @ Valparaiso W 75-63 85%    
  Feb 07, 2021 200   @ Valparaiso W 75-63 84%    
  Feb 13, 2021 27   Loyola Chicago L 65-66 55%    
  Feb 14, 2021 27   Loyola Chicago L 65-66 55%    
  Feb 17, 2021 143   @ Northern Iowa W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 21, 2021 241   Evansville W 74-56 96%    
  Feb 26, 2021 120   @ Bradley W 70-64 66%    
  Feb 27, 2021 120   @ Bradley W 70-64 66%    
  Mar 08, 2021 143   @ Northern Iowa W 77-69 74%    
  Mar 08, 2021 129   @ Indiana St. W 73-66 69%    
  Mar 08, 2021 179   Southern Illinois W 75-61 92%    
  Mar 08, 2021 241   Evansville W 74-56 96%    
  Mar 09, 2021 143   Northern Iowa W 79-67 88%    
  Mar 09, 2021 129   Indiana St. W 74-64 85%    
  Mar 09, 2021 179   @ Southern Illinois W 74-63 80%    
  Mar 09, 2021 241   @ Evansville W 73-58 88%    
Projected Record 26 - 4 19 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 8.1 13.2 25.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.9 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.5 8.1 13.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 13.2    13.2 0.0
17-1 100.0% 8.1    6.6 1.5 0.0
16-2 78.6% 3.5    1.7 1.7 0.1
15-3 39.3% 0.9    0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 8.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.8% 25.8 21.8 3.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 13.2% 51.7% 28.7% 23.0% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.4 32.2%
17-1 8.1% 35.3% 23.9% 11.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.2 15.0%
16-2 4.5% 25.0% 20.5% 4.5% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 3.4 5.7%
15-3 2.2% 18.4% 16.8% 1.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.8 2.0%
14-4 1.0% 15.3% 15.2% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.1%
13-5 0.4% 10.8% 10.8% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.1% 3.8% 3.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.0% 10.5% 10.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.4% 7.2% 4.2% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.2 4.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 88.6 4.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 2.9 10.6 24.4 38.5 20.1 5.5 0.8 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 99.5% 3.8 1.7 7.3 30.6 36.7 16.4 5.4 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 99.4% 4.3 0.6 4.6 19.5 34.6 22.4 16.0 1.8