USC
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#22
Expected Predictive Rating+13.9#34
Pace70.4#164
Improvement-3.1#317

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#35
First Shot+1.7#130
After Offensive Rebound+5.0#6
Layup/Dunks+2.5#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#277
Freethrows+1.4#83
Improvement-2.3#309

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#22
First Shot+4.7#49
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#35
Layups/Dunks+3.9#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#201
Freethrows+1.6#82
Improvement-0.8#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 5.6% 6.1% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 23.5% 25.2% 8.7%
Top 6 Seed 46.6% 49.0% 26.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.3% 93.3% 84.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.0% 91.2% 80.7%
Average Seed 6.5 6.3 7.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.8% 98.2%
Conference Champion 40.6% 43.0% 21.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 1.6% 4.1%
First Round91.3% 92.5% 82.0%
Second Round58.8% 60.4% 45.8%
Sweet Sixteen26.1% 27.2% 16.6%
Elite Eight10.7% 11.3% 6.2%
Final Four4.2% 4.5% 2.3%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 0.8%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Home) - 89.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 4
Quad 25 - 28 - 6
Quad 310 - 218 - 8
Quad 44 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 255   California Baptist W 95-87 OT 97%     1 - 0 +0.3 +4.9 -5.5
  Nov 28, 2020 163   Montana W 76-62 92%     2 - 0 +12.1 +4.7 +7.5
  Dec 01, 2020 34   BYU W 79-53 56%     3 - 0 +38.0 +11.5 +26.2
  Dec 03, 2020 23   Connecticut L 58-61 51%     3 - 1 +10.3 +2.1 +7.7
  Dec 08, 2020 107   UC Irvine W 91-56 84%     4 - 1 +37.9 +15.2 +20.4
  Dec 29, 2020 159   Santa Clara W 86-63 91%     5 - 1 +21.6 +8.3 +11.2
  Dec 31, 2020 20   Colorado L 62-72 54%     5 - 2 0 - 1 +2.7 -3.3 +5.6
  Jan 02, 2021 77   Utah W 64-46 77%     6 - 2 1 - 1 +23.7 +0.8 +25.0
  Jan 07, 2021 28   @ Arizona W 87-73 47%     7 - 2 2 - 1 +28.5 +13.6 +14.0
  Jan 09, 2021 83   @ Arizona St. W 73-64 68%     8 - 2 3 - 1 +17.7 +0.1 +17.1
  Jan 12, 2021 135   UC Riverside W 67-62 OT 88%     9 - 2 +5.8 +1.2 +4.9
  Jan 14, 2021 127   Washington W 95-68 87%     10 - 2 4 - 1 +28.2 +18.4 +8.9
  Jan 16, 2021 134   Washington St. W 85-77 88%     11 - 2 5 - 1 +8.8 +10.0 -1.7
  Jan 19, 2021 123   @ Oregon St. L 56-58 79%     11 - 3 5 - 2 +3.0 -6.9 +9.6
  Jan 23, 2021 132   @ California W 76-68 81%     12 - 3 6 - 2 +12.2 +11.0 +1.9
  Jan 28, 2021 123   Oregon St. W 76-64 89%    
  Jan 30, 2021 29   Oregon W 74-71 64%    
  Feb 06, 2021 25   UCLA W 71-69 63%    
  Feb 11, 2021 127   @ Washington W 78-69 76%    
  Feb 13, 2021 134   @ Washington St. W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 17, 2021 83   Arizona St. W 80-72 81%    
  Feb 20, 2021 28   Arizona W 75-73 64%    
  Feb 27, 2021 77   @ Utah W 72-67 62%    
  Mar 06, 2021 25   @ UCLA L 70-71 41%    
  Mar 08, 2021 83   @ Arizona St. W 79-74 63%    
  Mar 08, 2021 123   Oregon St. W 76-64 89%    
  Mar 09, 2021 83   Arizona St. W 80-72 80%    
  Mar 09, 2021 20   @ Colorado L 70-72 36%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 15 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 6.9 13.2 12.0 5.9 1.3 40.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 7.4 10.6 5.6 0.7 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 6.7 8.0 3.0 0.3 19.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.4 3.6 0.7 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.9 6.7 12.0 17.3 20.6 19.1 12.8 5.9 1.3 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3
18-2 100.0% 5.9    5.7 0.2
17-3 94.2% 12.0    9.7 2.3 0.1
16-4 69.4% 13.2    7.1 5.3 0.8 0.0
15-5 33.6% 6.9    1.9 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 7.1% 1.2    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.6% 40.6 25.8 11.5 2.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.3% 100.0% 40.3% 59.7% 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.9% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 2.7 0.7 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 12.8% 100.0% 31.3% 68.7% 3.9 0.2 1.4 3.4 4.1 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 19.1% 99.8% 27.0% 72.7% 5.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.0 5.0 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 20.6% 98.3% 23.2% 75.2% 6.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 4.5 5.1 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.8%
14-6 17.3% 94.8% 17.9% 76.9% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.0 4.2 3.8 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.9 93.7%
13-7 12.0% 86.0% 14.2% 71.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 1.7 83.7%
12-8 6.7% 69.5% 10.8% 58.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.0 65.8%
11-9 2.9% 48.2% 8.3% 39.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.5 43.5%
10-10 1.1% 22.9% 6.6% 16.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 17.5%
9-11 0.3% 4.5% 4.2% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4%
8-12 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.3% 22.5% 69.7% 6.5 1.5 4.1 7.3 10.5 11.3 11.8 11.8 11.3 9.6 7.2 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.7 90.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.5 56.1 40.8 2.9 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.9 31.9 47.5 16.6 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 2.1 28.2 37.8 29.6 4.4