Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#196
Expected Predictive Rating-11.1#306
Pace71.3#143
Improvement-0.7#217

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#237
First Shot+1.6#145
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#332
Layup/Dunks+1.8#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement-0.1#175

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#167
First Shot+1.7#123
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#289
Layups/Dunks-3.2#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#3
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#79
Freethrows-2.7#306
Improvement-0.6#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 0.4% 1.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 2.7% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 56.6% 35.5% 61.5%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Home) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 31 - 7
Quad 32 - 83 - 15
Quad 42 - 25 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 136   @ Vanderbilt L 71-77 27%     0 - 1 -2.3 -8.7 +6.9
  Dec 01, 2020 210   @ Illinois-Chicago L 50-66 46%     0 - 2 -17.6 -17.4 -1.3
  Dec 04, 2020 28   @ Purdue L 61-68 7%     0 - 3 +7.3 -3.3 +10.5
  Dec 09, 2020 305   SIU Edwardsville W 80-58 78%     1 - 3 +11.2 -3.4 +12.9
  Dec 12, 2020 233   @ Central Michigan L 79-84 51%     1 - 4 -7.9 -1.0 -6.6
  Dec 19, 2020 77   @ Toledo L 57-71 14%     1 - 5 -5.1 -11.7 +5.7
  Jan 09, 2021 89   Missouri St. L 68-81 25%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -8.6 -2.9 -6.0
  Jan 10, 2021 89   Missouri St. L 68-78 25%     1 - 7 0 - 2 -5.6 -5.7 +0.3
  Jan 16, 2021 91   @ DePaul L 58-77 16%     1 - 8 -11.2 -12.0 +1.6
  Jan 20, 2021 57   Loyola Chicago L 61-72 19%    
  Jan 28, 2021 111   Bradley L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 30, 2021 223   @ Evansville L 64-65 44%    
  Jan 31, 2021 223   @ Evansville L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 06, 2021 48   Drake L 65-77 16%    
  Feb 07, 2021 48   Drake L 65-77 16%    
  Feb 10, 2021 111   Bradley L 66-71 36%    
  Feb 12, 2021 127   @ Northern Iowa L 70-77 22%    
  Feb 13, 2021 127   @ Northern Iowa L 70-77 23%    
  Feb 17, 2021 57   @ Loyola Chicago L 60-74 8%    
  Feb 26, 2021 133   Indiana St. L 68-71 44%    
  Feb 27, 2021 133   Indiana St. L 68-71 44%    
Projected Record 5 - 16 4 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.6 4.3 1.4 0.1 12.3 8th
9th 1.0 5.3 11.4 13.2 8.3 2.1 0.1 41.5 9th
10th 3.7 9.4 12.6 8.5 3.9 0.9 0.1 39.0 10th
Total 3.7 10.5 17.9 20.2 18.7 14.1 8.3 4.1 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 5.9% 5.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.6% 4.4% 4.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 1.7% 3.2% 3.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.6
7-11 4.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.1
6-12 8.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.2
5-13 14.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.0
4-14 18.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.7
3-15 20.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.2
2-16 17.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.9
1-17 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.4
0-18 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%