Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#126
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#159
Pace67.9#225
Improvement+0.9#119

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#178
First Shot-0.6#193
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#158
Layup/Dunks+2.2#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#218
Freethrows+0.1#176
Improvement-0.5#204

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#93
First Shot+5.8#32
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#321
Layups/Dunks+1.4#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#86
Freethrows+1.3#99
Improvement+1.5#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.7% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 31.9% 39.1% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 18.8% 24.2% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 1.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.4% 1.7% 0.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Away) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 34 - 46 - 10
Quad 43 - 19 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 30, 2020 154   Arkansas Little Rock L 66-76 59%     0 - 1 -9.5 -9.6 +0.4
  Dec 02, 2020 114   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 46%     1 - 1 +17.0 +7.4 +9.0
  Jan 02, 2021 201   @ George Washington W 75-63 66%     2 - 1 1 - 0 +10.7 +9.1 +3.1
  Jan 03, 2021 201   @ George Washington L 73-75 66%     2 - 2 1 - 1 -3.3 -1.9 -1.3
  Jan 05, 2021 64   Davidson L 48-61 34%     2 - 3 1 - 2 -5.9 -21.5 +14.9
  Jan 09, 2021 266   Fordham W 48-45 85%     3 - 3 2 - 2 -5.2 -15.2 +10.5
  Jan 13, 2021 80   @ Dayton L 63-72 29%     3 - 4 2 - 3 -0.2 -4.1 +3.7
  Jan 15, 2021 60   @ St. Bonaventure L 48-62 21%     3 - 5 2 - 4 -2.4 -11.1 +6.6
  Jan 20, 2021 71   Rhode Island W 71-69 38%     4 - 5 3 - 4 +8.2 +3.9 +4.3
  Jan 23, 2021 60   St. Bonaventure L 61-65 30%     4 - 6 3 - 5 +4.2 -4.3 +8.3
  Jan 27, 2021 266   @ Fordham W 61-53 73%    
  Jan 30, 2021 213   Saint Joseph's W 77-69 82%    
  Feb 02, 2021 80   Dayton L 64-67 46%    
  Feb 07, 2021 66   Virginia Commonwealth L 65-69 40%    
  Feb 13, 2021 144   @ George Mason W 65-64 46%    
  Feb 17, 2021 64   @ Davidson L 63-71 21%    
  Feb 20, 2021 111   Massachusetts W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 27, 2021 166   @ La Salle W 69-67 52%    
Projected Record 8 - 10 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 0.2 2.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 1.8 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.8 0.6 7.7 5th
6th 0.3 6.9 3.8 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 3.4 9.6 0.6 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 9.9 3.9 0.0 15.0 8th
9th 0.3 5.6 8.5 0.4 14.8 9th
10th 0.1 3.2 9.0 2.5 0.0 14.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 6.3 4.0 0.2 12.2 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.2 12th
13th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.5 3.4 10.6 19.8 24.8 22.1 13.3 4.7 0.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 18.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.8% 7.4% 7.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.3%
10-8 4.7% 5.4% 5.3% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.5 0.0%
9-9 13.3% 3.0% 3.0% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.9
8-10 22.1% 1.6% 1.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 21.7
7-11 24.8% 1.0% 1.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 24.6
6-12 19.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 19.8
5-13 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.6
4-14 3.4% 3.4
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.9 5.1 8.5 8.5 44.1 33.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 1.8% 12.0 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.2%