Richmond
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#51
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#39
Pace71.6#134
Improvement+0.6#135

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#25
First Shot+8.5#13
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#232
Layup/Dunks+5.8#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#136
Freethrows-0.3#198
Improvement+1.6#64

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#91
First Shot+2.2#98
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#120
Layups/Dunks-1.1#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#83
Freethrows+3.5#11
Improvement-1.0#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.1% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 5.9% 6.2% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.9% 62.6% 38.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.3% 54.1% 31.0%
Average Seed 9.4 9.4 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 94.4% 70.6%
Conference Champion 23.4% 24.8% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.4% 9.5% 8.1%
First Round56.3% 58.1% 33.4%
Second Round27.1% 28.1% 14.4%
Sweet Sixteen8.1% 8.4% 4.9%
Elite Eight2.5% 2.7% 1.1%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Home) - 92.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 3
Quad 25 - 27 - 5
Quad 35 - 112 - 6
Quad 46 - 118 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 196   Morehead St. W 82-64 89%     1 - 0 +15.4 +6.4 +8.0
  Nov 29, 2020 57   @ Kentucky W 76-64 46%     2 - 0 +23.4 +3.9 +18.4
  Dec 07, 2020 123   Wofford W 77-72 80%     3 - 0 +6.6 +4.1 +2.6
  Dec 09, 2020 146   Northern Iowa W 78-68 85%     4 - 0 +9.6 +1.0 +8.2
  Dec 13, 2020 18   @ West Virginia L 71-87 28%     4 - 1 +0.5 +0.4 +1.4
  Dec 16, 2020 134   @ Vanderbilt W 78-67 74%     5 - 1 +14.7 +6.6 +8.3
  Dec 18, 2020 39   Loyola Chicago W 75-73 47%     6 - 1 +13.4 +6.4 +6.9
  Dec 22, 2020 170   Hofstra L 71-76 89%     6 - 2 -7.6 +4.5 -12.7
  Dec 30, 2020 65   @ Davidson W 80-74 52%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +16.1 +12.6 +3.8
  Jan 02, 2021 63   St. Bonaventure L 66-69 64%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +3.9 +3.5 +0.1
  Jan 06, 2021 64   Rhode Island W 80-73 64%     8 - 3 2 - 1 +13.9 +9.1 +4.5
  Jan 09, 2021 150   @ George Mason W 77-57 77%     9 - 3 3 - 1 +22.6 +10.7 +12.8
  Jan 23, 2021 181   La Salle W 80-66 93%    
  Jan 26, 2021 204   @ Saint Joseph's W 87-75 84%    
  Jan 29, 2021 29   Saint Louis L 74-75 54%    
  Feb 02, 2021 150   George Mason W 76-65 87%    
  Feb 05, 2021 74   @ Dayton W 72-70 50%    
  Feb 09, 2021 205   George Washington W 85-70 94%    
  Feb 12, 2021 69   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 74-73 48%    
  Feb 20, 2021 181   @ La Salle W 79-68 81%    
  Feb 23, 2021 286   Fordham W 73-53 97%    
  Feb 26, 2021 29   @ Saint Louis L 73-77 34%    
  Mar 03, 2021 102   @ Massachusetts W 82-78 59%    
Projected Record 17 - 6 11 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.2 9.5 9.1 2.6 23.4 1st
2nd 0.9 9.5 9.0 1.7 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.5 9.7 2.4 0.1 17.7 3rd
4th 1.0 9.0 3.5 0.1 13.6 4th
5th 0.1 4.1 5.0 0.3 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.4 0.9 6.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 1.8 3.9 7th
8th 0.7 1.6 0.2 2.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.4 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.1 11.6 21.4 25.2 21.0 10.8 2.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 2.6    2.1 0.4
13-5 83.9% 9.1    4.6 3.7 0.8 0.0
12-6 45.2% 9.5    2.2 4.3 2.5 0.5 0.0
11-7 8.8% 2.2    0.1 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 8.9 8.7 4.2 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.6% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 4.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.8% 97.8% 30.2% 67.7% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.2 96.9%
12-6 21.0% 87.4% 25.8% 61.6% 9.2 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.0 4.7 4.5 2.7 0.9 0.0 2.7 83.0%
11-7 25.2% 69.0% 17.9% 51.1% 10.5 0.1 0.9 2.5 4.6 6.2 3.0 0.2 0.0 7.8 62.2%
10-8 21.4% 41.5% 12.6% 29.0% 11.1 0.0 0.6 1.4 3.2 3.3 0.3 0.0 12.5 33.2%
9-9 11.6% 21.6% 8.7% 12.9% 11.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 9.1 14.1%
8-10 5.1% 8.6% 4.3% 4.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.6 4.5%
7-11 2.0% 4.9% 4.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 60.9% 18.0% 42.9% 9.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.1 4.6 6.3 10.0 11.5 13.2 8.4 0.9 0.1 39.1 52.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 2.8 5.1 40.9 33.2 13.0 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 4.9 15.2 30.4 23.3 15.6 11.6 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 5.8 3.1 15.0 18.3 30.3 27.2 6.1