Dayton
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#73
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#83
Pace63.6#314
Improvement+0.9#117

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#72
First Shot+7.0#28
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#306
Layup/Dunks+0.0#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#65
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#107
Freethrows+2.9#26
Improvement+2.4#38

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#100
First Shot+2.2#97
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#127
Layups/Dunks+5.5#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#174
Freethrows+3.1#24
Improvement-1.5#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 30.3% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.2% 23.0% 8.5%
Average Seed 10.8 10.5 11.2
.500 or above 89.0% 96.4% 84.1%
.500 or above in Conference 66.5% 81.9% 56.3%
Conference Champion 12.3% 21.2% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.7% 7.1% 3.1%
First Round18.4% 26.1% 13.3%
Second Round5.3% 8.6% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 2.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 39.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 25 - 36 - 7
Quad 33 - 110 - 8
Quad 45 - 214 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 01, 2020 234   Eastern Illinois W 66-63 90%     1 - 0 -3.5 -6.7 +3.4
  Dec 05, 2020 62   SMU L 64-66 48%     1 - 1 +5.8 -4.5 +10.2
  Dec 08, 2020 227   Northern Kentucky W 66-60 89%     2 - 1 +0.0 -6.8 +7.1
  Dec 12, 2020 75   Mississippi St. W 85-82 2OT 51%     3 - 1 +10.1 +2.7 +7.0
  Dec 19, 2020 63   Mississippi W 65-62 49%     4 - 1 +10.5 -0.2 +10.8
  Dec 30, 2020 182   La Salle L 65-67 85%     4 - 2 0 - 1 -5.7 -1.4 -4.5
  Jan 02, 2021 153   George Mason W 74-65 79%     5 - 2 1 - 1 +7.8 +10.6 -1.9
  Jan 05, 2021 284   @ Fordham L 54-55 88%     5 - 3 1 - 2 -6.6 -5.3 -1.6
  Jan 08, 2021 65   @ Davidson W 89-78 OT 39%     6 - 3 2 - 2 +21.1 +16.4 +4.4
  Jan 13, 2021 130   Duquesne W 72-63 73%     7 - 3 3 - 2 +9.9 +2.9 +7.1
  Jan 17, 2021 208   @ George Washington W 67-54 79%     8 - 3 4 - 2 +11.7 +1.1 +12.4
  Jan 23, 2021 71   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-68 40%    
  Jan 26, 2021 32   @ Saint Louis L 65-72 23%    
  Jan 30, 2021 66   Rhode Island W 70-69 57%    
  Feb 02, 2021 130   @ Duquesne W 67-64 56%    
  Feb 05, 2021 49   Richmond L 70-72 50%    
  Feb 09, 2021 101   @ Massachusetts W 74-73 47%    
  Feb 13, 2021 200   Saint Joseph's W 80-68 89%    
  Feb 16, 2021 66   @ Rhode Island L 68-71 37%    
  Feb 19, 2021 32   Saint Louis L 67-70 44%    
  Feb 28, 2021 58   @ St. Bonaventure L 63-67 31%    
  Mar 03, 2021 71   Virginia Commonwealth W 68-66 60%    
Projected Record 13 - 9 9 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.7 5.6 2.7 0.9 0.1 12.3 1st
2nd 1.9 6.9 2.7 0.3 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.6 5.9 4.6 0.4 11.5 3rd
4th 2.7 6.9 0.9 10.5 4th
5th 0.6 8.1 3.2 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.2 3.8 7.4 0.2 11.5 6th
7th 0.9 6.5 1.6 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 4.2 4.7 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 3.8 0.7 5.8 9th
10th 0.3 2.5 1.7 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.2 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 1.1 5.2 11.0 16.2 20.4 18.2 15.2 8.7 3.0 0.9 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-4 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.1
13-5 91.0% 2.7    2.0 0.7 0.0
12-6 63.8% 5.6    2.0 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 18.0% 2.7    0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.3
10-8 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 5.0 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 1.7% 98.3% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 100.0%
14-4 0.9% 95.9% 25.1% 70.8% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.5%
13-5 3.0% 87.1% 21.0% 66.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.4 83.7%
12-6 8.7% 62.8% 10.8% 51.9% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.2 1.0 0.1 3.2 58.2%
11-7 15.2% 41.7% 14.8% 26.9% 11.2 0.2 0.9 2.5 2.5 0.2 8.8 31.6%
10-8 18.2% 18.7% 11.1% 7.6% 11.6 0.3 1.0 1.9 0.3 14.8 8.6%
9-9 20.4% 8.0% 6.5% 1.5% 11.9 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.2 18.8 1.6%
8-10 16.2% 3.1% 3.1% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 15.7
7-11 11.0% 1.4% 1.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.8
6-12 5.2% 0.7% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 5.2
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.1% 8.1% 13.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.2 3.3 6.3 6.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 78.9 14.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 7.0 2.5 97.5