Seattle
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#256
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#272
Pace71.9#118
Improvement+1.3#92

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#261
First Shot-4.0#274
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#142
Layup/Dunks-2.2#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#183
Freethrows-1.9#289
Improvement+1.9#59

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#242
First Shot-1.9#233
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#221
Layups/Dunks-3.5#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#90
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement-0.6#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.6% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 20.0% 28.1% 9.2%
.500 or above in Conference 23.5% 32.8% 11.2%
Conference Champion 3.5% 5.3% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four3.9% 4.8% 2.8%
First Round2.6% 3.3% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 48 - 610 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 288   @ Portland W 84-72 50%     1 - 0 +5.9 +3.3 +1.8
  Nov 29, 2020 246   Air Force W 63-45 47%     2 - 0 +12.7 +1.3 +15.6
  Nov 30, 2020 255   Cal St. Northridge L 65-76 50%     2 - 1 -16.9 -14.0 -2.6
  Dec 03, 2020 25   @ UCLA L 52-78 4%     2 - 2 -10.9 -17.6 +7.0
  Dec 06, 2020 280   @ Long Beach St. L 75-80 48%     2 - 3 -10.4 -8.4 -1.7
  Dec 09, 2020 140   @ Washington L 41-73 19%     2 - 4 -28.8 -29.5 +0.3
  Dec 22, 2020 150   @ California L 65-70 21%     2 - 5 -2.5 -0.4 -2.7
  Dec 30, 2020 288   Portland W 84-68 64%     3 - 5 +6.5 -0.2 +5.1
  Jan 15, 2021 242   Utah Valley L 92-93 OT 53%     3 - 6 0 - 1 -7.7 -3.8 -3.6
  Jan 16, 2021 242   Utah Valley W 73-72 57%    
  Jan 22, 2021 324   @ Tarleton St. W 74-69 62%    
  Jan 23, 2021 324   @ Tarleton St. W 74-69 62%    
  Feb 05, 2021 337   @ Dixie St. W 71-65 67%    
  Feb 06, 2021 337   @ Dixie St. W 71-65 67%    
  Feb 12, 2021 118   New Mexico St. L 63-71 28%    
  Feb 13, 2021 118   New Mexico St. L 63-71 28%    
  Feb 19, 2021 215   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-74 32%    
  Feb 20, 2021 215   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-74 31%    
  Feb 26, 2021 142   Grand Canyon L 67-73 35%    
  Feb 27, 2021 142   Grand Canyon L 67-73 35%    
  Mar 05, 2021 279   @ California Baptist L 75-76 43%    
  Mar 06, 2021 279   @ California Baptist L 75-76 44%    
Projected Record 9 - 13 6 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 3.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 4.2 2.0 0.3 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.6 6.8 2.1 0.2 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.0 8.6 2.2 0.1 17.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 7.3 8.9 2.1 0.0 19.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 9.2 8.2 1.9 0.1 22.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 4.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.0 8.4 12.9 16.7 17.2 15.6 11.2 7.0 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
12-4 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
11-5 81.2% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.0
10-6 40.0% 1.4    0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
9-7 8.2% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1
8-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.3% 29.3% 29.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
11-5 1.4% 22.8% 22.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1
10-6 3.6% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9 0.0 0.5 3.0
9-7 7.0% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 6.1
8-8 11.2% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8 10.4
7-9 15.6% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.7 14.8
6-10 17.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.6 16.7
5-11 16.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 16.3
4-12 12.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.8
3-13 8.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.3
2-14 4.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.0
1-15 1.4% 1.4
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.3 95.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%