Portland
West Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#288
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#225
Pace77.9#31
Improvement-1.5#260

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#303
First Shot-2.8#247
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#289
Layup/Dunks-0.8#207
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#248
Freethrows+2.1#59
Improvement-1.9#295

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#244
First Shot-2.5#250
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#184
Layups/Dunks-6.8#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#138
Freethrows+1.9#76
Improvement+0.4#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 2.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 4.0% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 71.0% 40.9% 71.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 62 - 14
Quad 43 - 45 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 256   Seattle L 72-84 50%     0 - 1 -19.7 -9.5 -9.3
  Dec 05, 2020 283   Portland St. W 86-73 56%     1 - 1 +3.7 -5.8 +7.2
  Dec 10, 2020 164   @ Oregon St. W 87-86 OT 19%     2 - 1 +2.5 +3.4 -0.9
  Dec 19, 2020 21   @ Oregon L 41-80 2%     2 - 2 -22.8 -25.6 +3.2
  Dec 22, 2020 182   Montana St. W 62-59 34%     3 - 2 -0.6 -14.8 +14.1
  Dec 30, 2020 256   @ Seattle L 68-84 36%     3 - 3 -20.2 -12.8 -5.8
  Jan 07, 2021 84   @ San Francisco L 64-88 7%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -15.5 -7.4 -6.8
  Jan 09, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 88-116 1%     3 - 5 0 - 2 -5.8 +11.9 -14.7
  Jan 14, 2021 84   San Francisco L 63-79 12%     3 - 6 0 - 3 -11.0 -6.4 -4.7
  Jan 16, 2021 146   @ Pepperdine L 65-80 16%     3 - 7 0 - 4 -12.3 -16.7 +6.4
  Jan 21, 2021 40   @ BYU L 64-85 2%    
  Jan 23, 2021 206   San Diego L 72-75 44%    
  Jan 25, 2021 126   Loyola Marymount L 66-75 24%    
  Jan 28, 2021 85   @ St. Mary's L 59-75 5%    
  Jan 30, 2021 147   Santa Clara L 70-77 30%    
  Feb 04, 2021 40   BYU L 66-83 7%    
  Feb 13, 2021 147   @ Santa Clara L 68-78 15%    
  Feb 18, 2021 146   Pepperdine L 74-81 30%    
  Feb 20, 2021 112   Pacific L 62-72 21%    
  Feb 21, 2021 112   Pacific L 62-72 21%    
  Feb 25, 2021 206   @ San Diego L 70-76 25%    
  Feb 27, 2021 126   @ Loyola Marymount L 65-77 11%    
Projected Record 5 - 17 2 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 2.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 5.8 2.2 0.1 10.3 8th
9th 1.2 7.4 11.7 4.9 0.3 25.5 9th
10th 10.6 21.5 17.8 5.5 0.5 56.0 10th
Total 10.6 22.6 25.3 19.5 12.2 6.3 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0% 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.1
8-8 0.2% 0.2
7-9 0.8% 0.8
6-10 2.3% 2.3
5-11 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
4-12 12.2% 12.2
3-13 19.5% 19.5
2-14 25.3% 25.3
1-15 22.6% 22.6
0-16 10.6% 10.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.6%