UCLA
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#25
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#19
Pace62.8#323
Improvement-0.1#182

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#11
First Shot+7.1#22
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#57
Layup/Dunks+1.1#134
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#219
Freethrows+1.5#75
Improvement-0.3#194

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#80
First Shot+2.6#92
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#97
Layups/Dunks+4.6#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#338
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#219
Freethrows+2.9#20
Improvement+0.2#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.6% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 4.8% 6.7% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 22.9% 29.6% 11.8%
Top 6 Seed 46.1% 55.5% 30.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.5% 95.2% 85.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.3% 93.9% 82.3%
Average Seed 6.5 6.0 7.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 41.2% 50.1% 26.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 1.2% 3.4%
First Round90.4% 94.6% 83.5%
Second Round57.0% 62.5% 47.9%
Sweet Sixteen24.2% 28.0% 18.0%
Elite Eight9.3% 10.9% 6.7%
Final Four3.5% 4.2% 2.3%
Championship Game1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Oregon (Home) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 6
Quad 25 - 29 - 7
Quad 38 - 117 - 8
Quad 44 - 020 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 33   @ San Diego St. L 58-73 47%     0 - 1 -1.2 +0.5 -3.6
  Nov 27, 2020 133   Pepperdine W 107-98 3OT 84%     1 - 1 +11.6 +5.4 +3.7
  Dec 03, 2020 260   Seattle W 78-52 96%     2 - 1 +18.0 +1.1 +16.6
  Dec 06, 2020 132   California W 76-56 87%     3 - 1 1 - 0 +20.9 +11.8 +11.4
  Dec 09, 2020 196   San Diego W 83-56 94%     4 - 1 +22.7 +10.0 +12.7
  Dec 11, 2020 63   Marquette W 69-60 71%     5 - 1 +16.4 +3.9 +13.2
  Dec 19, 2020 15   Ohio St. L 70-77 41%     5 - 2 +8.3 +14.9 -7.9
  Dec 31, 2020 77   Utah W 72-70 76%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +7.7 +11.7 -3.7
  Jan 02, 2021 20   Colorado W 65-62 51%     7 - 2 3 - 0 +15.7 +3.8 +12.2
  Jan 07, 2021 83   @ Arizona St. W 81-75 OT 66%     8 - 2 4 - 0 +14.7 +1.7 +12.2
  Jan 09, 2021 28   @ Arizona W 81-76 44%     9 - 2 5 - 0 +19.5 +19.9 +0.0
  Jan 14, 2021 134   Washington St. W 91-61 87%     10 - 2 6 - 0 +30.8 +25.4 +6.6
  Jan 16, 2021 127   Washington W 81-76 86%     11 - 2 7 - 0 +6.2 +8.1 -1.9
  Jan 21, 2021 132   @ California W 61-57 80%     12 - 2 8 - 0 +8.2 -3.5 +12.2
  Jan 23, 2021 49   @ Stanford L 72-73 OT 52%     12 - 3 8 - 1 +11.4 +8.4 +3.0
  Jan 28, 2021 29   Oregon W 72-70 62%    
  Jan 30, 2021 123   Oregon St. W 74-63 88%    
  Feb 01, 2021 29   Oregon W 72-70 62%    
  Feb 06, 2021 22   @ USC L 69-71 37%    
  Feb 11, 2021 134   @ Washington St. W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 13, 2021 127   @ Washington W 77-68 75%    
  Feb 18, 2021 28   Arizona W 73-71 62%    
  Feb 20, 2021 83   Arizona St. W 79-71 80%    
  Feb 25, 2021 77   @ Utah W 71-67 60%    
  Feb 27, 2021 20   @ Colorado L 69-72 34%    
  Mar 06, 2021 22   USC W 71-70 59%    
Projected Record 19 - 7 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 7.0 13.9 12.3 5.4 1.2 41.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 7.7 11.2 5.8 0.8 27.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 6.2 8.3 3.2 0.3 19.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.8 0.8 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.9 11.9 18.3 21.5 20.1 13.0 5.4 1.2 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2
18-2 100.0% 5.4    5.3 0.2
17-3 94.2% 12.3    9.8 2.4 0.1
16-4 69.4% 13.9    7.7 5.5 0.8 0.0
15-5 32.8% 7.0    1.9 3.4 1.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.5% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 41.2% 41.2 26.0 11.8 3.0 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 40.8% 59.2% 2.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.4% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 2.9 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 13.0% 100.0% 29.2% 70.7% 4.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 4.0 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 20.1% 99.8% 24.3% 75.5% 5.3 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.0 5.1 4.3 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 21.5% 98.4% 19.8% 78.6% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.9 4.2 5.5 4.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 98.0%
14-6 18.3% 93.5% 15.7% 77.8% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.2 4.3 4.2 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.2 92.3%
13-7 11.9% 81.0% 12.0% 69.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.4 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.3 78.5%
12-8 5.9% 57.6% 8.9% 48.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.5 53.4%
11-9 2.1% 27.3% 6.4% 20.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.6 22.3%
10-10 0.6% 8.9% 3.0% 5.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.0%
9-11 0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 1.8%
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 91.5% 20.2% 71.3% 6.5 1.1 3.7 7.5 10.6 11.8 11.4 13.1 11.3 9.5 5.9 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.5 89.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.6 47.5 43.7 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 2.1 21.8 46.9 27.2 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 2.4 18.4 36.4 37.0 7.0 1.3