California
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#132
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#152
Pace63.3#317
Improvement+3.0#38

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#120
First Shot+4.9#51
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#314
Layup/Dunks-0.5#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#51
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement+3.8#19

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#154
First Shot-1.2#206
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#54
Layups/Dunks-0.3#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#274
Freethrows+1.0#119
Improvement-0.8#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.9 15.6
.500 or above 1.1% 3.3% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 42.7% 21.0% 49.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 24.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 7
Quad 22 - 53 - 12
Quad 33 - 65 - 18
Quad 44 - 09 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 123   @ Oregon St. L 63-71 40%     0 - 1 -3.0 -8.3 +5.2
  Nov 30, 2020 186   Nicholls St. W 60-49 72%     1 - 1 +7.5 -13.2 +20.9
  Dec 03, 2020 83   Arizona St. L 62-70 39%     1 - 2 0 - 1 -2.6 -10.0 +7.5
  Dec 06, 2020 25   @ UCLA L 56-76 13%     1 - 3 0 - 2 -5.3 -5.9 -1.7
  Dec 09, 2020 133   @ Pepperdine L 62-74 44%     1 - 4 -7.8 -6.2 -2.1
  Dec 13, 2020 84   San Francisco W 72-70 40%     2 - 4 +7.1 +7.5 -0.3
  Dec 19, 2020 299   Cal St. Northridge W 87-56 88%     3 - 4 +20.5 +3.9 +15.9
  Dec 22, 2020 260   Seattle W 70-65 84%     4 - 4 -3.0 +1.9 -4.3
  Dec 31, 2020 29   @ Oregon L 69-82 14%     4 - 5 0 - 3 +1.4 +2.8 -1.5
  Jan 02, 2021 123   @ Oregon St. L 64-73 40%     4 - 6 0 - 4 -4.0 -1.2 -3.8
  Jan 07, 2021 134   Washington St. L 60-71 57%     4 - 7 0 - 5 -10.2 -7.1 -3.5
  Jan 09, 2021 127   Washington W 84-78 55%     5 - 7 1 - 5 +7.2 +14.5 -7.0
  Jan 14, 2021 20   @ Colorado L 60-89 11%     5 - 8 1 - 6 -13.0 -3.9 -10.1
  Jan 16, 2021 77   @ Utah W 72-63 27%     6 - 8 2 - 6 +18.0 +6.4 +12.1
  Jan 21, 2021 25   UCLA L 57-61 20%     6 - 9 2 - 7 +7.4 -6.7 +13.6
  Jan 23, 2021 22   USC L 68-76 19%     6 - 10 2 - 8 +3.9 +6.9 -3.6
  Jan 28, 2021 83   @ Arizona St. L 70-76 24%    
  Jan 30, 2021 28   @ Arizona L 64-76 10%    
  Feb 04, 2021 49   Stanford L 64-71 31%    
  Feb 11, 2021 77   Utah L 66-69 44%    
  Feb 13, 2021 20   @ Colorado L 62-75 9%    
  Feb 18, 2021 134   @ Washington St. L 64-66 39%    
  Feb 20, 2021 127   @ Washington L 69-71 38%    
  Feb 25, 2021 123   Oregon St. W 67-66 58%    
  Feb 27, 2021 29   Oregon L 65-74 26%    
  Mar 06, 2021 49   @ Stanford L 62-72 15%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 5 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.3 3.6 5.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.1 3.8 8.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 15.4 9th
10th 0.0 2.9 10.9 5.4 0.4 0.0 19.6 10th
11th 0.0 2.6 12.4 8.4 0.9 0.0 24.4 11th
12th 4.0 11.3 8.0 1.1 0.0 24.5 12th
Total 4.1 14.0 23.5 24.5 18.4 10.1 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 5.7% 5.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 5.7%
10-10 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 0.2
9-11 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 4.0% 0.6% 0.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
7-13 10.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 10.1
6-14 18.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 18.3
5-15 24.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 24.4
4-16 23.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.5
3-17 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
2-18 4.1% 4.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1%