Alabama
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#8
Expected Predictive Rating+17.6#9
Pace83.0#7
Improvement+8.2#1

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#12
First Shot+7.0#26
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#52
Layup/Dunks+3.7#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#19
Freethrows+1.8#64
Improvement+4.0#13

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#10
First Shot+7.1#12
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#90
Layups/Dunks+5.1#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#115
Freethrows+1.4#90
Improvement+4.2#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.1% 9.9% 4.3%
#1 Seed 35.2% 43.9% 26.7%
Top 2 Seed 71.5% 81.4% 61.8%
Top 4 Seed 95.1% 98.2% 92.1%
Top 6 Seed 99.3% 99.9% 98.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.1 1.8 2.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 99.0% 99.3% 98.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round92.9% 94.7% 91.1%
Sweet Sixteen63.9% 67.3% 60.7%
Elite Eight37.6% 41.3% 34.1%
Final Four18.7% 21.2% 16.3%
Championship Game8.5% 9.7% 7.2%
National Champion3.4% 3.9% 3.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 49.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 14 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 3
Quad 28 - 216 - 5
Quad 36 - 122 - 6
Quad 42 - 023 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 185   Jacksonville St. W 81-57 96%     1 - 0 +20.5 -1.5 +19.9
  Nov 30, 2020 49   Stanford L 64-82 74%     1 - 1 -7.3 -11.2 +6.7
  Dec 01, 2020 110   UNLV W 86-74 89%     2 - 1 +16.4 +10.4 +5.3
  Dec 02, 2020 58   Providence W 88-71 76%     3 - 1 +27.2 +21.2 +6.4
  Dec 12, 2020 61   Clemson L 56-64 77%     3 - 2 +1.9 -11.9 +14.0
  Dec 15, 2020 95   Furman W 83-80 89%     4 - 2 +6.9 +10.8 -3.8
  Dec 19, 2020 82   Western Kentucky L 71-73 87%     4 - 3 +3.4 -3.8 +7.3
  Dec 22, 2020 131   East Tennessee St. W 85-69 93%     5 - 3 +17.0 +12.0 +4.4
  Dec 29, 2020 62   Mississippi W 82-64 82%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +25.8 +6.2 +17.6
  Jan 02, 2021 19   @ Tennessee W 71-63 56%     7 - 3 2 - 0 +24.1 +9.8 +14.4
  Jan 05, 2021 21   Florida W 86-71 70%     8 - 3 3 - 0 +27.1 +12.9 +13.4
  Jan 09, 2021 53   @ Auburn W 94-90 70%     9 - 3 4 - 0 +16.1 +7.0 +8.3
  Jan 12, 2021 50   @ Kentucky W 85-65 70%     10 - 3 5 - 0 +32.3 +17.9 +13.6
  Jan 16, 2021 39   Arkansas W 90-59 77%     11 - 3 6 - 0 +41.0 +12.4 +25.4
  Jan 19, 2021 35   @ LSU W 105-75 65%     12 - 3 7 - 0 +43.6 +21.7 +18.4
  Jan 23, 2021 73   Mississippi St. W 81-73 86%     13 - 3 8 - 0 +14.1 +6.4 +7.2
  Jan 26, 2021 50   Kentucky W 70-59 79%     14 - 3 9 - 0 +20.0 +2.4 +17.3
  Jan 30, 2021 18   @ Oklahoma W 80-79 49%    
  Feb 03, 2021 35   LSU W 88-81 80%    
  Feb 06, 2021 37   @ Missouri W 80-76 61%    
  Feb 09, 2021 88   @ South Carolina W 89-79 78%    
  Feb 13, 2021 96   Georgia W 92-78 92%    
  Feb 17, 2021 130   @ Texas A&M W 76-63 87%    
  Feb 20, 2021 142   Vanderbilt W 90-72 96%    
  Feb 24, 2021 39   @ Arkansas W 85-81 61%    
  Feb 27, 2021 73   @ Mississippi St. W 79-71 74%    
  Mar 02, 2021 53   Auburn W 87-78 82%    
Projected Record 22 - 5 16 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.2 8.1 18.1 28.5 28.5 13.3 99.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 8.2 18.1 28.5 28.5 13.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 13.3    13.3
17-1 100.0% 28.5    28.5
16-2 100.0% 28.5    28.5
15-3 100.0% 18.1    17.8 0.3
14-4 98.3% 8.1    6.8 1.2 0.0
13-5 83.6% 2.2    1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 40.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 99.0% 99.0 96.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 13.3% 100.0% 47.0% 53.0% 1.3 9.4 3.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 28.5% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 1.6 14.4 11.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 28.5% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 2.0 8.6 12.9 5.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 18.1% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 2.6 2.5 6.3 5.6 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.2% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 3.5 0.3 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.6% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.6% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.1% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 2.1 35.2 36.3 16.1 7.5 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 1.2 84.8 15.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 100.0% 1.3 73.0 26.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 100.0% 1.3 68.9 30.1 1.0