IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-16.5	#351
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.9	#94
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-11.0	#354

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.5	#322

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.0%	3.5%	0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	15.9	16.0

.500 or above	4.0%	28.6%	3.7%
.500 or above in Conference	30.9%	68.9%	30.6%
Conference Champion	0.9%	7.4%	0.8%
Last Place in Conference	10.5%	1.4%	10.6%

First Four	0.9%	2.7%	0.9%
First Round	0.4%	2.4%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 8
Quad 3	0 - 4	0 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 12	8 - 23

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	100	@ Western Kentucky	L	58-83	1%
Nov 10, 2021	92	@ Vanderbilt	L	60-85	1%
Nov 13, 2021	96	@ Missouri St.	L	60-85	1%
Nov 16, 2021	127	@ Iowa St.	L	62-84	3%
Nov 18, 2021	39	@ Iowa	L	60-91	0.5%
Nov 20, 2021	339	NC Central	L	67-68	47%
Nov 28, 2021	318	North Alabama	L	71-75	35%
Dec 01, 2021	87	@ Dayton	L	55-81	2%
Dec 08, 2021	255	Samford	L	74-82	24%
Dec 11, 2021	147	@ Pepperdine	L	65-86	4%
Dec 15, 2021	3	@ UCLA	L	49-86	0.1%
Dec 21, 2021	11	@ Memphis	L	55-90	0.3%
Dec 28, 2021	21	@ Texas Tech	L	50-83	0.4%
Jan 03, 2022	358	@ Mississippi Valley	W	77-72	65%
Jan 05, 2022	355	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	68-67	53%
Jan 08, 2022	262	Jackson St.	L	63-71	26%
Jan 10, 2022	347	Alcorn St.	W	72-71	53%
Jan 15, 2022	340	Alabama A&M	L	65-66	48%
Jan 22, 2022	232	@ Prairie View	L	62-78	11%
Jan 24, 2022	211	@ Texas Southern	L	66-83	9%
Jan 29, 2022	350	Bethune-Cookman	L	70-71	50%
Jan 31, 2022	304	Florida A&M	L	66-72	33%
Feb 05, 2022	312	@ Grambling St.	L	66-77	19%
Feb 07, 2022	317	@ Southern	L	67-78	20%
Feb 12, 2022	355	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	71-64	70%
Feb 14, 2022	358	Mississippi Valley	W	80-69	81%
Feb 19, 2022	304	@ Florida A&M	L	63-75	19%
Feb 21, 2022	350	@ Bethune-Cookman	L	69-72	41%
Feb 26, 2022	340	@ Alabama A&M	L	62-69	29%
Mar 03, 2022	317	Southern	L	70-75	36%
Mar 05, 2022	312	Grambling St.	L	69-74	35%
Projected Record						8 - 23	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0			2.2	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.6	1.4	1.3	0.3	0.0					3.7	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	1.0	2.2	1.7	0.4	0.0						5.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.5	3.3	2.2	0.4	0.0							7.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.1	4.2	2.6	0.5	0.0								9.7	6th
7th						0.0	0.5	2.7	5.1	3.0	0.5	0.0									11.8	7th
8th					0.0	0.7	3.6	5.5	3.1	0.6	0.0										13.5	8th
9th				0.0	1.1	4.4	6.0	2.6	0.5	0.0											14.6	9th
10th			0.1	1.4	4.8	4.9	2.0	0.3	0.0												13.6	10th
11th		0.2	2.0	4.0	3.3	1.0	0.1	0.0													10.7	11th
12th	0.5	1.9	2.3	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0														6.3	12th

Total	0.5	2.1	4.4	6.7	9.5	11.1	12.2	11.5	11.0	9.4	7.4	5.5	3.8	2.5	1.3	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	93.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	73.3%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
15-3	44.8%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-4	17.0%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	3.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.9%	0.9		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		14.6%	14.6%		15.0																0.0		0.0
17-1	0.1%		34.5%	34.5%		15.9																0.0	0.0	0.0
16-2	0.3%		19.4%	19.4%		16.0																	0.1	0.2
15-3	0.7%		12.8%	12.8%		16.0																0.0	0.1	0.6
14-4	1.3%		10.2%	10.2%		16.0																	0.1	1.2
13-5	2.5%		5.3%	5.3%		16.0																	0.1	2.4
12-6	3.8%		4.0%	4.0%		16.0																	0.2	3.7
11-7	5.5%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																	0.1	5.4
10-8	7.4%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.1	7.3
9-9	9.4%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	9.3
8-10	11.0%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.9
7-11	11.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.5
6-12	12.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	12.2
5-13	11.1%																							11.1
4-14	9.5%																							9.5
3-15	6.7%																							6.7
2-16	4.4%																							4.4
1-17	2.1%																							2.1
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	16.0																0.0	1.0	99.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%