IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Bucknell
Patriot League
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.2	#294
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.5	#40
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.5	#280

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.7	#291

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.6%	10.5%	3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	14.3	15.3

.500 or above	22.8%	63.3%	21.3%
.500 or above in Conference	38.0%	70.3%	36.8%
Conference Champion	3.1%	11.9%	2.8%
Last Place in Conference	17.5%	3.3%	18.0%

First Four	1.2%	1.3%	1.2%
First Round	3.0%	9.6%	2.8%
Second Round	0.1%	1.0%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 3.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 9	12 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	59	@ North Carolina St.	L	65-84	4%
Nov 14, 2021	187	Penn	L	74-77	39%
Nov 17, 2021	248	Rider	W	76-75	53%
Nov 20, 2021	223	@ Illinois St.	L	72-79	28%
Nov 23, 2021	155	Mercer	L	72-80	25%
Nov 28, 2021	227	Siena	L	72-73	48%
Dec 01, 2021	283	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	75-79	38%
Dec 04, 2021	192	@ Hofstra	L	73-82	23%
Dec 07, 2021	168	@ Princeton	L	71-81	20%
Dec 18, 2021	210	La Salle	L	75-77	44%
Dec 22, 2021	57	@ Richmond	L	67-86	6%
Dec 29, 2021	244	@ Albany	L	73-79	33%
Jan 01, 2022	197	@ Boston University	L	69-77	25%
Jan 04, 2022	257	Army	W	76-75	53%
Jan 07, 2022	184	@ Navy	L	69-78	23%
Jan 10, 2022	276	@ Loyola Maryland	L	73-77	37%
Jan 13, 2022	297	Lehigh	W	79-76	60%
Jan 16, 2022	259	@ American	L	71-76	35%
Jan 19, 2022	105	Colgate	L	77-86	24%
Jan 22, 2022	321	@ Holy Cross	L	77-78	47%
Jan 26, 2022	184	Navy	L	72-75	40%
Jan 29, 2022	276	Loyola Maryland	W	76-74	56%
Feb 02, 2022	105	@ Colgate	L	74-89	12%
Feb 05, 2022	292	@ Lafayette	L	77-80	40%
Feb 09, 2022	259	American	W	74-73	54%
Feb 12, 2022	321	Holy Cross	W	80-75	66%
Feb 14, 2022	297	@ Lehigh	L	76-79	41%
Feb 19, 2022	292	Lafayette	W	80-77	59%
Feb 23, 2022	257	@ Army	L	73-78	35%
Feb 26, 2022	197	Boston University	L	72-74	42%
Projected Record						11 - 19	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1		3.1	1st
2nd											0.1	0.8	1.8	2.1	1.2	0.5	0.1				6.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.4	3.0	2.4	1.0	0.2	0.0					8.2	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.2	4.0	2.6	0.6	0.1							9.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.5	2.9	4.7	2.5	0.5	0.0								11.1	5th
6th						0.0	0.7	3.4	4.8	2.4	0.3	0.0									11.6	6th
7th					0.1	1.0	3.8	5.0	2.0	0.3	0.0										12.3	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.6	4.5	4.6	1.7	0.2	0.0											12.8	8th
9th		0.0	0.7	2.7	4.4	3.6	1.1	0.1													12.8	9th
10th	0.7	2.0	3.3	3.3	1.8	0.6	0.1	0.0													11.7	10th

Total	0.7	2.0	4.0	6.3	7.9	9.7	10.3	10.7	10.3	9.8	8.3	6.9	5.0	3.7	2.2	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.1			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	87.8%	0.5		0.4	0.1
15-3	64.4%	0.8		0.5	0.3	0.0
14-4	35.3%	0.8		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	13.4%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.1%	3.1		1.8	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		67.3%	67.3%		11.5							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.2%		38.5%	35.2%	3.2%	13.0							0.0				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		5.0%
16-2	0.6%		35.0%	35.0%		13.8												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.4
15-3	1.3%		27.5%	27.4%	0.2%	14.4												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.0		0.2%
14-4	2.2%		19.7%	19.7%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	1.8
13-5	3.7%		14.3%	14.3%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	3.1
12-6	5.0%		10.1%	10.1%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	4.5
11-7	6.9%		6.8%	6.8%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.3	6.4
10-8	8.3%		4.9%	4.9%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.4	7.9
9-9	9.8%		2.6%	2.6%		15.9																0.0	0.2	9.6
8-10	10.3%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.2	10.1
7-11	10.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	10.6
6-12	10.3%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.3
5-13	9.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
4-14	7.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
3-15	6.3%																							6.3
2-16	4.0%																							4.0
1-17	2.0%																							2.0
0-18	0.7%																							0.7

Total	100%		3.6%	3.6%	0.0%	15.2							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.9	96.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%