Preseason Rankings
BYU
West Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.2#38
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#190
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.6% 2.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 5.9% 6.6% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 14.1% 15.5% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 22.9% 25.0% 4.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.1% 57.7% 23.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.9% 51.5% 19.8%
Average Seed 7.2 7.1 9.0
.500 or above 85.0% 88.1% 58.8%
.500 or above in Conference 84.1% 86.2% 66.0%
Conference Champion 13.1% 14.1% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 2.3%
First Four6.1% 6.4% 4.2%
First Round51.1% 54.6% 21.3%
Second Round31.4% 33.9% 10.0%
Sweet Sixteen14.9% 16.2% 3.5%
Elite Eight7.0% 7.7% 1.2%
Final Four3.1% 3.4% 0.5%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.1%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 89.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 24 - 37 - 8
Quad 37 - 214 - 10
Quad 45 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 151   Cleveland St. W 78-65 90%    
  Nov 12, 2021 42   San Diego St. W 70-67 61%    
  Nov 16, 2021 19   Oregon L 72-75 42%    
  Nov 24, 2021 211   Texas Southern W 85-68 92%    
  Nov 27, 2021 88   @ Utah W 74-72 58%    
  Dec 01, 2021 209   @ Utah Valley W 80-70 81%    
  Dec 04, 2021 96   @ Missouri St. W 75-72 59%    
  Dec 08, 2021 72   Utah St. W 76-69 71%    
  Dec 11, 2021 48   Creighton W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 18, 2021 129   @ Weber St. W 81-75 68%    
  Dec 22, 2021 177   South Florida W 76-64 83%    
  Jan 01, 2022 307   @ Portland W 86-70 91%    
  Jan 06, 2022 137   Pacific W 77-65 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 49   St. Mary's W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 13, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 76-89 15%    
  Jan 15, 2022 67   @ San Francisco L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 20, 2022 170   @ San Diego W 78-70 74%    
  Jan 22, 2022 307   Portland W 89-67 96%    
  Jan 27, 2022 124   @ Santa Clara W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 137   @ Pacific W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 03, 2022 67   San Francisco W 76-70 67%    
  Feb 05, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 79-86 29%    
  Feb 10, 2022 82   @ Loyola Marymount W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 12, 2022 147   @ Pepperdine W 81-74 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 49   @ St. Mary's L 66-68 45%    
  Feb 24, 2022 82   Loyola Marymount W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 147   Pepperdine W 84-71 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 4.5 3.4 1.1 13.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.2 9.1 7.3 2.7 0.0 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 6.6 7.5 3.3 0.3 0.0 19.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 5.6 4.9 1.3 0.1 14.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.3 6.6 9.3 11.5 13.4 14.1 13.5 10.6 7.2 3.4 1.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
15-1 99.9% 3.4    2.7 0.7
14-2 62.8% 4.5    2.6 1.8 0.1
13-3 27.8% 3.0    1.1 1.5 0.4 0.0
12-4 7.3% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
11-5 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 7.7 4.5 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.1% 100.0% 57.9% 42.1% 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 3.4% 99.9% 43.3% 56.5% 2.5 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-2 7.2% 99.1% 31.8% 67.3% 3.9 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
13-3 10.6% 95.0% 22.3% 72.7% 5.7 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 93.6%
12-4 13.5% 86.4% 16.0% 70.4% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.8 83.8%
11-5 14.1% 69.4% 10.2% 59.2% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.3 66.0%
10-6 13.4% 46.9% 5.9% 40.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.1 43.5%
9-7 11.5% 27.5% 3.4% 24.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.3 24.9%
8-8 9.3% 13.1% 2.7% 10.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 10.6%
7-9 6.6% 4.4% 1.7% 2.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 2.8%
6-10 4.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.3%
5-11 2.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.1%
4-12 1.4% 1.4
3-13 0.7% 0.7
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 54.1% 11.9% 42.2% 7.2 2.6 3.3 3.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 5.5 5.7 6.4 4.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 45.9 47.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 81.8 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 71.4 28.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 78.1 10.9 10.9