Preseason Rankings
Cincinnati
American Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#90
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.8#64
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#66
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 2.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.8% 4.5% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 20.5% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.1% 16.2% 2.9%
Average Seed 8.9 8.8 10.0
.500 or above 71.1% 76.5% 42.0%
.500 or above in Conference 52.1% 56.2% 29.5%
Conference Champion 4.5% 5.1% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 5.4% 14.7%
First Four3.3% 3.7% 0.9%
First Round16.2% 18.5% 3.9%
Second Round8.1% 9.3% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 6
Quad 22 - 34 - 10
Quad 35 - 39 - 12
Quad 49 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 198   Evansville W 73-62 85%    
  Nov 13, 2021 133   Georgia W 84-77 72%    
  Nov 16, 2021 340   Alabama A&M W 79-57 97%    
  Nov 18, 2021 319   Presbyterian W 79-61 94%    
  Nov 22, 2021 8   Illinois L 72-82 19%    
  Nov 27, 2021 216   Monmouth W 86-74 84%    
  Dec 01, 2021 152   @ Miami (OH) W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 05, 2021 206   Bryant W 88-77 82%    
  Dec 11, 2021 37   @ Xavier L 70-79 25%    
  Dec 14, 2021 304   Florida A&M W 80-63 91%    
  Dec 18, 2021 211   Texas Southern W 83-71 82%    
  Dec 21, 2021 301   Tennessee Tech W 84-67 91%    
  Dec 28, 2021 13   @ Houston L 62-74 17%    
  Jan 01, 2022 136   Tulane W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 06, 2022 62   SMU W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 09, 2022 11   @ Memphis L 69-81 17%    
  Jan 12, 2022 183   East Carolina W 77-67 78%    
  Jan 16, 2022 54   @ Wichita St. L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 20, 2022 108   Tulsa W 72-67 64%    
  Jan 25, 2022 120   @ Temple L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 30, 2022 183   @ East Carolina W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 03, 2022 11   Memphis L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 06, 2022 13   Houston L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 09, 2022 177   @ South Florida W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 12, 2022 108   @ Tulsa L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 17, 2022 54   Wichita St. L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 20, 2022 120   Temple W 75-69 67%    
  Feb 23, 2022 68   @ Central Florida L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 26, 2022 177   South Florida W 75-66 77%    
  Mar 03, 2022 62   @ SMU L 73-79 33%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.7 1.9 0.2 12.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.4 4.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.6 4.1 1.3 0.1 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.2 3.5 0.9 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.1 11th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.2 6.8 8.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 10.5 9.2 7.7 5.6 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.5% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 86.6% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-3 60.5% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1
14-4 27.9% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 49.7% 50.3% 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 98.2% 38.6% 59.5% 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.0%
16-2 1.1% 98.0% 31.4% 66.6% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
15-3 2.2% 92.8% 24.8% 67.9% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 90.4%
14-4 3.9% 83.2% 17.6% 65.6% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 79.6%
13-5 5.6% 64.1% 13.5% 50.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 58.5%
12-6 7.7% 43.3% 8.3% 35.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.3 38.1%
11-7 9.2% 23.3% 5.4% 17.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.1 18.8%
10-8 10.5% 11.4% 3.4% 8.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.3 8.2%
9-9 11.3% 4.5% 1.9% 2.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.8 2.7%
8-10 10.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.4%
7-11 10.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 0.1%
6-12 8.9% 0.3% 0.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9
5-13 6.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
4-14 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.2
3-15 3.2% 3.2
2-16 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 18.0% 4.5% 13.5% 8.9 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.4 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 82.0 14.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 70.4 19.7 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.2 20.0 40.0 40.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 100.0