Preseason Rankings
Drake
Missouri Valley
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#73
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#269
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#57
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.1% 3.6% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 5.5% 6.3% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.4% 32.2% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.8% 12.4% 2.2%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 11.9
.500 or above 88.5% 92.0% 67.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 88.0% 67.7%
Conference Champion 26.7% 29.1% 11.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.1% 4.8%
First Four2.8% 3.1% 1.1%
First Round28.1% 30.9% 11.5%
Second Round12.4% 13.9% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.7% 5.3% 1.0%
Elite Eight1.8% 2.1% 0.3%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 37 - 310 - 8
Quad 410 - 120 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2021 186   South Dakota W 80-68 86%    
  Nov 20, 2021 57   Richmond W 72-71 55%    
  Nov 25, 2021 81   Belmont W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 02, 2021 189   Valparaiso W 75-63 84%    
  Dec 05, 2021 353   St. Thomas W 86-56 99%    
  Dec 08, 2021 326   @ Nebraska Omaha W 81-66 89%    
  Dec 11, 2021 55   Clemson L 64-66 44%    
  Dec 16, 2021 262   Jackson St. W 75-59 90%    
  Dec 19, 2021 357   Chicago St. W 89-56 99%    
  Dec 22, 2021 79   Saint Louis W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 02, 2022 96   @ Missouri St. L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 05, 2022 140   @ Southern Illinois W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 08, 2022 176   Indiana St. W 74-63 81%    
  Jan 12, 2022 223   Illinois St. W 78-64 87%    
  Jan 15, 2022 198   @ Evansville W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 19, 2022 157   Bradley W 73-63 79%    
  Jan 22, 2022 107   @ Northern Iowa L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 26, 2022 223   @ Illinois St. W 75-67 73%    
  Jan 30, 2022 46   Loyola Chicago W 65-64 51%    
  Feb 02, 2022 176   @ Indiana St. W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 05, 2022 107   Northern Iowa W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 09, 2022 96   Missouri St. W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 12, 2022 157   @ Bradley W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 16, 2022 198   Evansville W 71-59 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 46   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-67 33%    
  Feb 23, 2022 189   @ Valparaiso W 72-66 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 140   Southern Illinois W 72-63 75%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 6.9 6.9 4.7 1.8 26.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.4 6.2 3.4 0.8 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.2 5.6 3.5 1.0 0.1 15.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 4.1 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.8 5.2 7.0 8.5 10.3 11.4 11.9 11.5 10.4 7.7 4.7 1.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 100.0% 4.7    4.5 0.3
16-2 89.5% 6.9    5.6 1.2 0.0
15-3 66.8% 6.9    4.3 2.4 0.2
14-4 37.0% 4.2    1.9 1.8 0.5 0.0
13-5 14.3% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.7% 26.7 18.7 6.6 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 96.9% 69.1% 27.8% 3.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 90.0%
17-1 4.7% 90.3% 57.2% 33.2% 6.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 77.5%
16-2 7.7% 76.2% 45.4% 30.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 56.4%
15-3 10.4% 57.6% 36.7% 20.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.4 33.1%
14-4 11.5% 38.7% 27.8% 10.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.0 15.0%
13-5 11.9% 25.9% 21.6% 4.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.8 5.5%
12-6 11.4% 15.1% 14.0% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.7 1.3%
11-7 10.3% 10.8% 10.7% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.2 0.1%
10-8 8.5% 6.6% 6.5% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.9 0.1%
9-9 7.0% 5.3% 5.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.7
8-10 5.2% 3.4% 3.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0
7-11 3.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
6-12 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 29.4% 20.9% 8.5% 9.8 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.8 4.5 6.4 3.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 70.6 10.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 2.3 27.7 31.4 24.1 13.4 2.3 0.8 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.2 17.9 10.6 30.4 30.8 7.7 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 9.8 31.6 17.6 23.8 6.2 3.6 3.6 3.6