IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.5	#159
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.0	#184
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.6	#195

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.1	#138

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.5%	7.7%	2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.8%	1.4%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.3	12.0	13.4

.500 or above	61.8%	75.1%	44.5%
.500 or above in Conference	54.1%	63.9%	41.4%
Conference Champion	5.7%	8.1%	2.5%
Last Place in Conference	6.2%	3.4%	9.8%

First Four	0.5%	0.7%	0.2%
First Round	5.2%	7.3%	2.5%
Second Round	1.1%	1.7%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 56.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	4 - 5	6 - 10
Quad 4	10 - 3	16 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2021	240	@ New Mexico	W	70-68	57%
Nov 16, 2021	85	Miami (FL)	L	70-73	39%
Nov 19, 2021	349	Tennessee Martin	W	81-62	95%
Nov 20, 2021	313	North Dakota	W	77-65	85%
Nov 22, 2021	243	Troy	W	74-66	75%
Nov 28, 2021	172	James Madison	W	78-75	61%
Dec 01, 2021	251	Stetson	W	75-67	76%
Dec 05, 2021	280	North Florida	W	77-67	79%
Dec 15, 2021	77	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	66-76	21%
Dec 21, 2021	299	@ High Point	W	71-66	66%
Dec 30, 2021	178	Charlotte	W	66-62	62%
Jan 01, 2022	131	Old Dominion	W	70-69	53%
Jan 08, 2022	118	@ Marshall	L	74-80	31%
Jan 13, 2022	267	@ Middle Tennessee	W	73-70	61%
Jan 15, 2022	74	@ UAB	L	64-74	21%
Jan 20, 2022	100	Western Kentucky	L	69-71	44%
Jan 22, 2022	118	Marshall	L	76-77	50%
Jan 27, 2022	163	@ UTEP	L	67-70	41%
Jan 29, 2022	207	@ Texas San Antonio	L	76-77	48%
Feb 03, 2022	93	Louisiana Tech	L	71-73	42%
Feb 05, 2022	195	Southern Miss	W	71-66	66%
Feb 10, 2022	100	@ Western Kentucky	L	66-74	27%
Feb 17, 2022	123	North Texas	W	65-64	51%
Feb 19, 2022	267	Middle Tennessee	W	76-67	77%
Feb 24, 2022	131	@ Old Dominion	L	67-72	34%
Feb 26, 2022	178	@ Charlotte	L	63-65	44%
Mar 03, 2022	273	@ Florida International	W	75-72	61%
Mar 05, 2022	273	Florida International	W	78-69	77%
Projected Record						15 - 13	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.4	1.2	1.8	1.4	0.6	0.2		5.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.8	2.1	2.2	1.1	0.3	0.0			6.6	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.0	2.8	2.6	0.9	0.1					7.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.8	3.2	3.0	0.9	0.1	0.0					8.1	4th
5th								0.0	0.0	0.7	3.1	3.7	1.0	0.1							8.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.7	4.0	1.5	0.1								8.6	6th
7th								0.2	2.0	4.4	1.9	0.2	0.0								8.7	7th
8th							0.1	1.6	4.1	2.5	0.3	0.0									8.6	8th
9th						0.1	1.1	3.6	3.0	0.5	0.0										8.3	9th
10th					0.0	0.8	2.9	3.2	0.8	0.0											7.7	10th
11th				0.0	0.6	2.5	2.8	1.1	0.1												7.1	11th
12th			0.0	0.6	2.0	2.5	1.0	0.1													6.3	12th
13th		0.1	0.6	1.7	1.8	0.8	0.1	0.0													5.1	13th
14th	0.2	0.7	1.1	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0														3.5	14th

Total	0.2	0.8	1.8	3.2	4.9	6.8	8.1	9.8	10.4	10.8	10.1	9.6	7.7	6.2	4.4	2.9	1.7	0.6	0.2			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	98.2%	0.6		0.5	0.0
16-2	85.1%	1.4		1.1	0.4	0.0
15-3	60.8%	1.8		1.0	0.7	0.1	0.0
14-4	27.6%	1.2		0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0
13-5	7.2%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.7%	5.7		3.2	1.8	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		84.5%	48.3%	36.2%	6.4		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		70.0%
17-1	0.6%		70.3%	39.0%	31.2%	8.9				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2		51.2%
16-2	1.7%		47.4%	32.5%	14.9%	10.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.9		22.1%
15-3	2.9%		30.5%	24.2%	6.3%	11.9							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0		2.0		8.3%
14-4	4.4%		19.4%	17.7%	1.7%	12.7										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	3.5		2.1%
13-5	6.2%		10.9%	10.6%	0.3%	13.2												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	5.5		0.3%
12-6	7.7%		8.1%	8.1%	0.1%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	7.1		0.1%
11-7	9.6%		5.4%	5.4%	0.0%	13.9												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	9.1		0.0%
10-8	10.1%		2.5%	2.5%	0.0%	14.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.8		0.0%
9-9	10.8%		1.5%	1.5%		14.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	10.6
8-10	10.4%		0.7%	0.7%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.3
7-11	9.8%		0.4%	0.4%		15.5																0.0	0.0	9.8
6-12	8.1%		0.2%	0.2%		15.7															0.0		0.0	8.0
5-13	6.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.8
4-14	4.9%																							4.9
3-15	3.2%																							3.2
2-16	1.8%																							1.8
1-17	0.8%																							0.8
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.5%	4.7%	0.8%	12.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.3	1.4	0.9	0.5	0.2	94.5		0.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	3.9	13.5		25.0	25.0	18.3	18.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	5.1			51.9				25.9	22.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	4.4				63.6	36.4