Preseason Rankings
Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#222
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.9#47
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#243
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#220
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 19.2% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.6 14.8
.500 or above 53.3% 86.1% 51.0%
.500 or above in Conference 63.4% 85.9% 61.7%
Conference Champion 8.2% 20.8% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 0.9% 5.0%
First Four1.6% 1.4% 1.6%
First Round7.6% 18.5% 6.8%
Second Round0.6% 2.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 6.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 53 - 9
Quad 412 - 615 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 46   @ Loyola Chicago L 59-76 7%    
  Nov 16, 2021 20   USC L 66-80 11%    
  Nov 23, 2021 101   Rhode Island L 73-79 32%    
  Nov 26, 2021 284   Western Michigan W 76-70 71%    
  Nov 27, 2021 325   SE Louisiana W 81-71 79%    
  Nov 28, 2021 247   Purdue Fort Wayne W 81-76 65%    
  Dec 01, 2021 273   @ Florida International L 77-78 49%    
  Dec 04, 2021 270   Dartmouth W 76-70 68%    
  Dec 07, 2021 304   @ Florida A&M W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 11, 2021 282   @ Robert Morris W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 19, 2021 155   Mercer L 74-75 47%    
  Dec 22, 2021 265   @ Canisius L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 04, 2022 280   North Florida W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 08, 2022 302   @ Jacksonville W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 11, 2022 311   @ Kennesaw St. W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 15, 2022 110   Liberty L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 18, 2022 251   @ Stetson L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 22, 2022 164   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 27, 2022 180   Eastern Kentucky W 84-83 51%    
  Jan 29, 2022 165   Bellarmine L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 03, 2022 334   @ Central Arkansas W 82-77 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 226   @ Lipscomb L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 09, 2022 318   North Alabama W 81-72 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 251   Stetson W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 16, 2022 311   Kennesaw St. W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 19, 2022 280   @ North Florida W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 23, 2022 110   @ Liberty L 63-74 20%    
  Feb 26, 2022 302   Jacksonville W 77-70 72%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 2.6 1.5 0.5 8.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.2 2.5 0.3 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 12th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.0 6.9 8.8 10.3 11.8 11.8 11.4 9.8 8.0 5.4 3.3 1.5 0.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 98.1% 1.5    1.3 0.2
14-2 80.4% 2.6    1.8 0.8 0.1
13-3 42.6% 2.3    1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-4 14.4% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 4.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 61.8% 58.1% 3.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8.9%
15-1 1.5% 43.4% 42.4% 1.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.9%
14-2 3.3% 35.6% 35.5% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 2.1 0.1%
13-3 5.4% 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 4.0 0.0%
12-4 8.0% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 6.5 0.0%
11-5 9.8% 12.9% 12.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 8.5
10-6 11.4% 8.5% 8.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 10.4
9-7 11.8% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.2
8-8 11.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.4
7-9 10.3% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.2
6-10 8.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.7
5-11 6.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.9
4-12 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.0
3-13 3.1% 3.1
2-14 1.6% 1.6
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.7 91.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.6 32.8 45.9 21.3
Lose Out 0.0%