Preseason Rankings
Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#18
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.1#103
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 7.5% 7.9% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 15.4% 16.1% 1.9%
Top 4 Seed 30.3% 31.5% 6.0%
Top 6 Seed 44.0% 45.5% 12.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.9% 71.6% 33.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.5% 67.3% 30.5%
Average Seed 5.5 5.5 7.4
.500 or above 86.0% 87.5% 53.4%
.500 or above in Conference 79.1% 80.4% 51.0%
Conference Champion 17.1% 17.7% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.1% 4.9%
First Four3.5% 3.5% 3.1%
First Round68.1% 69.8% 31.7%
Second Round48.6% 50.0% 18.4%
Sweet Sixteen26.7% 27.6% 7.3%
Elite Eight13.8% 14.3% 2.6%
Final Four6.8% 7.1% 0.7%
Championship Game3.4% 3.6% 0.4%
National Champion1.6% 1.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Home) - 95.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 10
Quad 36 - 117 - 11
Quad 44 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 187   Penn W 82-64 95%    
  Nov 14, 2021 33   @ Florida L 73-74 45%    
  Nov 17, 2021 136   Tulane W 78-63 90%    
  Nov 21, 2021 82   Loyola Marymount W 75-68 73%    
  Nov 24, 2021 197   Boston University W 80-61 94%    
  Nov 30, 2021 5   @ Purdue L 68-74 31%    
  Dec 04, 2021 44   Syracuse W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 12, 2021 104   South Carolina W 84-75 77%    
  Dec 15, 2021 226   Lipscomb W 82-62 95%    
  Dec 18, 2021 68   Central Florida W 74-68 67%    
  Dec 21, 2021 280   North Florida W 86-63 97%    
  Dec 29, 2021 144   @ Boston College W 82-73 77%    
  Jan 01, 2022 59   @ North Carolina St. W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 04, 2022 103   @ Wake Forest W 75-69 68%    
  Jan 08, 2022 27   Louisville W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 11, 2022 85   Miami (FL) W 78-68 79%    
  Jan 15, 2022 44   @ Syracuse W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 17, 2022 10   Duke W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 22, 2022 85   @ Miami (FL) W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 26, 2022 60   @ Georgia Tech W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 29, 2022 34   Virginia Tech W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 02, 2022 55   @ Clemson W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 103   Wake Forest W 78-66 83%    
  Feb 09, 2022 117   Pittsburgh W 80-67 85%    
  Feb 12, 2022 22   @ North Carolina L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 15, 2022 55   Clemson W 71-63 72%    
  Feb 19, 2022 10   @ Duke L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 26, 2022 29   @ Virginia L 60-62 45%    
  Mar 02, 2022 45   Notre Dame W 78-72 69%    
  Mar 05, 2022 59   North Carolina St. W 77-69 72%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 4.7 4.1 2.5 0.9 17.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.2 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.5 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.2 2.9 0.7 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.6 0.9 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.2 0.2 4.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.8 5.0 6.2 7.5 8.6 10.0 10.1 10.3 9.4 8.5 6.7 4.6 2.5 0.9 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 99.6% 2.5    2.4 0.2
18-2 89.5% 4.1    3.4 0.7 0.0
17-3 70.4% 4.7    2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 38.3% 3.2    1.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 14.4% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.1% 17.1 11.2 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 59.8% 40.2% 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.5% 100.0% 48.9% 51.1% 1.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.6% 100.0% 38.9% 61.1% 1.7 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-3 6.7% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 2.4 1.8 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 8.5% 99.9% 25.1% 74.8% 3.3 0.8 1.9 2.3 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 9.4% 99.6% 17.3% 82.3% 4.5 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 10.3% 98.1% 12.9% 85.2% 5.8 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.8%
13-7 10.1% 93.5% 8.3% 85.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 93.0%
12-8 10.0% 82.2% 5.1% 77.1% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.8 81.2%
11-9 8.6% 63.2% 3.1% 60.1% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2 62.0%
10-10 7.5% 38.8% 1.5% 37.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.6 37.9%
9-11 6.2% 15.1% 1.3% 13.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.3 14.0%
8-12 5.0% 5.1% 0.4% 4.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 4.7%
7-13 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.9%
6-14 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 1.7 0.1%
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 69.9% 12.6% 57.3% 5.5 7.5 7.9 7.7 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.2 5.3 4.8 3.7 3.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 30.1 65.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 88.1 11.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.6 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 77.3 22.7