Preseason Rankings
Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#121
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.6#79
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#85
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#175
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.8% 29.1% 14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 2.5% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.7 12.4 13.8
.500 or above 76.9% 86.4% 60.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 90.4% 76.5%
Conference Champion 31.2% 38.0% 19.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.8% 2.6%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 1.0%
First Round23.3% 28.5% 14.2%
Second Round5.0% 6.8% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Home) - 63.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 411 - 217 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 134   Northeastern W 76-72 64%    
  Nov 16, 2021 57   @ Richmond L 72-81 21%    
  Nov 20, 2021 295   William & Mary W 80-70 82%    
  Nov 27, 2021 101   @ Rhode Island L 74-79 32%    
  Dec 01, 2021 289   Tennessee St. W 85-72 87%    
  Dec 04, 2021 155   @ Mercer L 75-76 48%    
  Dec 14, 2021 56   @ Mississippi St. L 69-78 23%    
  Dec 21, 2021 60   @ Georgia Tech L 70-79 24%    
  Dec 30, 2021 194   @ Arkansas St. W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 01, 2022 277   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 06, 2022 224   Texas Arlington W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 08, 2022 174   Texas St. W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 13, 2022 214   @ South Alabama W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 15, 2022 243   @ Troy W 77-72 64%    
  Jan 20, 2022 182   Appalachian St. W 74-67 71%    
  Jan 22, 2022 190   Coastal Carolina W 83-76 72%    
  Jan 27, 2022 171   @ Louisiana W 81-80 50%    
  Jan 29, 2022 269   @ Louisiana Monroe W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 03, 2022 243   Troy W 80-69 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 214   South Alabama W 80-71 75%    
  Feb 10, 2022 190   @ Coastal Carolina W 80-79 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 182   @ Appalachian St. W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 17, 2022 245   Georgia Southern W 78-67 80%    
  Feb 19, 2022 245   @ Georgia Southern W 75-70 64%    
  Feb 24, 2022 269   Louisiana Monroe W 79-67 82%    
  Feb 26, 2022 171   Louisiana W 83-77 68%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.1 5.2 8.0 7.6 5.4 2.4 31.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.6 5.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.8 3.3 1.0 0.1 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.7 5.0 6.8 8.3 9.8 10.8 11.5 11.4 10.8 8.2 5.4 2.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.4    2.4
17-1 99.6% 5.4    5.2 0.2
16-2 92.7% 7.6    6.5 1.1 0.0
15-3 74.2% 8.0    5.4 2.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 45.3% 5.2    2.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0
13-5 18.5% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.2% 31.2 22.4 6.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.4% 82.1% 69.4% 12.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 41.4%
17-1 5.4% 63.6% 54.9% 8.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 19.2%
16-2 8.2% 51.1% 47.5% 3.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.0 7.0%
15-3 10.8% 39.7% 38.3% 1.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.5 2.2%
14-4 11.4% 29.5% 29.3% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 8.0 0.3%
13-5 11.5% 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 8.8 0.0%
12-6 10.8% 16.4% 16.3% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 9.0 0.0%
11-7 9.8% 11.8% 11.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 8.7
10-8 8.3% 6.7% 6.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.7
9-9 6.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5
8-10 5.0% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8
7-11 3.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.6
6-12 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.8% 22.6% 1.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.5 4.0 5.8 5.1 3.4 1.3 76.2 1.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.4 6.6 22.2 25.5 26.0 10.5 5.6 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.4 11.7 1.7 51.7 1.7 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 6.5 50.0 25.0 25.0