IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.7	#302
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.6	#198
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.3	#305

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.3	#275

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.6%	3.7%	1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	15.2	15.7

.500 or above	19.5%	28.4%	7.5%
.500 or above in Conference	33.3%	42.0%	21.5%
Conference Champion	2.0%	2.9%	0.7%
Last Place in Conference	15.6%	10.3%	22.7%

First Four	0.9%	1.1%	0.7%
First Round	2.2%	3.2%	0.8%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 57.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 6	2 - 11
Quad 4	7 - 6	9 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2021	286	N.C. A&T	W	75-73	57%
Nov 16, 2021	68	@ Central Florida	L	60-79	5%
Nov 24, 2021	106	@ Minnesota	L	65-80	9%
Dec 02, 2021	335	@ Charleston Southern	W	73-72	53%
Dec 07, 2021	133	@ Georgia	L	71-84	14%
Dec 11, 2021	266	UNC Wilmington	W	75-74	53%
Dec 14, 2021	195	@ Southern Miss	L	64-73	23%
Dec 21, 2021	117	@ Pittsburgh	L	64-78	12%
Jan 02, 2022	200	@ Campbell	L	63-72	24%
Jan 05, 2022	311	@ Kennesaw St.	L	70-72	42%
Jan 08, 2022	222	Florida Gulf Coast	L	73-74	45%
Jan 11, 2022	251	Stetson	W	72-71	51%
Jan 15, 2022	280	@ North Florida	L	70-74	36%
Jan 18, 2022	110	@ Liberty	L	58-73	11%
Jan 22, 2022	165	@ Bellarmine	L	64-75	19%
Jan 27, 2022	226	Lipscomb	L	69-70	46%
Jan 29, 2022	334	Central Arkansas	W	79-72	70%
Feb 03, 2022	318	@ North Alabama	L	72-74	45%
Feb 05, 2022	164	@ Jacksonville St.	L	63-74	19%
Feb 09, 2022	180	Eastern Kentucky	L	77-81	37%
Feb 12, 2022	110	Liberty	L	61-70	24%
Feb 16, 2022	251	@ Stetson	L	68-74	32%
Feb 19, 2022	311	Kennesaw St.	W	73-69	61%
Feb 23, 2022	280	North Florida	W	73-71	55%
Feb 26, 2022	222	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	70-77	28%
Projected Record						9 - 16	6 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.0		2.0	1st
2nd										0.0	0.3	1.0	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0			3.4	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.3	1.6	2.0	0.8	0.1	0.0				4.9	3rd
4th								0.0	0.4	2.2	2.7	0.9	0.1						6.3	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.4	3.6	1.3	0.1							7.7	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	2.4	4.5	1.7	0.1								9.0	6th
7th						0.2	2.2	5.1	2.3	0.2									10.0	7th
8th				0.0	0.2	2.2	5.5	3.1	0.4	0.0									11.3	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	2.2	5.3	3.6	0.5	0.0										11.8	9th
10th			0.3	2.3	5.3	3.7	0.7	0.0											12.2	10th
11th		0.5	2.8	4.6	3.1	0.7	0.0												11.9	11th
12th	1.1	2.8	3.2	1.8	0.4	0.0													9.4	12th

Total	1.1	3.3	6.3	8.9	11.2	12.1	12.3	11.4	10.0	8.0	6.0	4.2	2.7	1.4	0.6	0.3	0.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-1	99.1%	0.3		0.2	0.0
14-2	80.3%	0.5		0.3	0.1	0.0
13-3	46.6%	0.7		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-4	15.7%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-5	2.1%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	2.0%	2.0		1.0	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%		54.8%	49.6%	5.2%	11.5										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		10.3%
15-1	0.3%		36.9%	36.9%		13.5											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
14-2	0.6%		29.6%	29.6%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
13-3	1.4%		22.6%	22.6%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.1
12-4	2.7%		16.2%	16.2%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	2.3
11-5	4.2%		9.4%	9.4%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	3.8
10-6	6.0%		7.2%	7.2%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.3	5.6
9-7	8.0%		3.5%	3.5%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	7.7
8-8	10.0%		2.0%	2.0%		15.9														0.0		0.0	0.2	9.8
7-9	11.4%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	0.2	11.3
6-10	12.3%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	12.2
5-11	12.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.1
4-12	11.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.2
3-13	8.9%																							8.9
2-14	6.3%																							6.3
1-15	3.3%																							3.3
0-16	1.1%																							1.1

Total	100%		2.6%	2.6%	0.0%	15.3										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.5	97.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%