Preseason Rankings
Kennesaw St.
Atlantic Sun
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#311
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.0#129
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#331
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#256
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 5.4% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.8 15.5
.500 or above 12.7% 38.2% 10.1%
.500 or above in Conference 28.9% 52.6% 26.6%
Conference Champion 1.4% 4.6% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 17.8% 6.4% 18.9%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.9%
First Round1.7% 5.0% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 9.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 72 - 12
Quad 46 - 68 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 127   @ Iowa St. L 66-80 9%    
  Nov 11, 2021 48   @ Creighton L 62-83 3%    
  Nov 19, 2021 81   Belmont L 70-82 14%    
  Nov 23, 2021 103   @ Wake Forest L 62-78 8%    
  Nov 28, 2021 335   Charleston Southern W 75-69 69%    
  Dec 01, 2021 155   Mercer L 68-74 31%    
  Dec 05, 2021 139   @ Wofford L 63-76 14%    
  Dec 18, 2021 255   @ Samford L 75-81 31%    
  Dec 22, 2021 75   @ Nebraska L 66-85 6%    
  Jan 05, 2022 302   Jacksonville W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 08, 2022 110   @ Liberty L 58-74 10%    
  Jan 11, 2022 222   Florida Gulf Coast L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 15, 2022 251   @ Stetson L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 18, 2022 280   @ North Florida L 70-75 35%    
  Jan 22, 2022 226   @ Lipscomb L 66-74 27%    
  Jan 27, 2022 164   Jacksonville St. L 66-72 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 318   North Alabama W 75-71 61%    
  Feb 03, 2022 180   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-85 19%    
  Feb 05, 2022 165   @ Bellarmine L 64-76 18%    
  Feb 09, 2022 334   Central Arkansas W 79-73 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 280   North Florida W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 16, 2022 222   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 70-78 26%    
  Feb 19, 2022 302   @ Jacksonville L 69-73 39%    
  Feb 23, 2022 251   Stetson L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 26, 2022 110   Liberty L 61-71 22%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.1 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 3.2 1.0 0.1 6.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 4.1 1.6 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 4.9 2.2 0.2 10.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 5.4 3.1 0.3 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.3 2.5 5.6 3.9 0.8 0.0 13.1 10th
11th 0.6 3.2 5.3 3.5 0.7 0.0 13.3 11th
12th 1.3 3.2 3.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.8 12th
Total 1.3 3.8 7.3 10.1 11.9 12.9 12.5 11.2 9.4 7.3 5.2 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-2 81.1% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-3 46.5% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-4 15.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 47.6% 47.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.2% 33.5% 33.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.4% 27.0% 27.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-3 1.0% 21.2% 21.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
12-4 2.0% 16.1% 16.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7
11-5 3.3% 9.7% 9.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.0
10-6 5.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.9
9-7 7.3% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.1
8-8 9.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.1
7-9 11.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.0
6-10 12.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.5
5-11 12.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.8
4-12 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
3-13 10.1% 10.1
2-14 7.3% 7.3
1-15 3.8% 3.8
0-16 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%