Preseason Rankings
Louisiana
Sun Belt
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#171
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.3#56
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#148
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#202
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 17.5% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.6 13.2 14.3
.500 or above 61.6% 79.0% 47.5%
.500 or above in Conference 70.3% 81.6% 61.3%
Conference Champion 15.2% 22.0% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 1.8% 6.3%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round11.9% 17.2% 7.6%
Second Round1.7% 2.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 44.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 54 - 10
Quad 411 - 315 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 195   @ Southern Miss L 73-74 45%    
  Nov 21, 2021 30   @ Indiana L 65-80 9%    
  Nov 23, 2021 118   @ Marshall L 79-86 29%    
  Nov 27, 2021 262   Jackson St. W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 03, 2021 298   New Orleans W 88-78 81%    
  Dec 08, 2021 331   McNeese St. W 85-71 88%    
  Dec 11, 2021 93   @ Louisiana Tech L 72-81 23%    
  Dec 14, 2021 13   @ Houston L 62-80 7%    
  Dec 30, 2021 182   @ Appalachian St. L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 01, 2022 190   @ Coastal Carolina L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 06, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 79-74 64%    
  Jan 08, 2022 277   Arkansas Little Rock W 79-70 77%    
  Jan 13, 2022 224   @ Texas Arlington W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 15, 2022 174   @ Texas St. L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 20, 2022 214   South Alabama W 78-72 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 243   Troy W 79-71 73%    
  Jan 27, 2022 121   Georgia St. L 80-81 50%    
  Jan 29, 2022 245   Georgia Southern W 77-69 72%    
  Feb 03, 2022 277   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 05, 2022 194   @ Arkansas St. L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 10, 2022 174   Texas St. W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 224   Texas Arlington W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 17, 2022 269   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 19, 2022 269   Louisiana Monroe W 78-69 76%    
  Feb 24, 2022 245   @ Georgia Southern W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 26, 2022 121   @ Georgia St. L 77-83 32%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.3 4.0 3.5 2.0 0.6 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.5 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.6 2.9 0.7 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.8 5.4 7.0 8.2 9.6 10.6 10.7 10.3 9.2 7.7 5.8 3.8 2.0 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.4% 2.0    2.0 0.1
16-2 91.7% 3.5    2.9 0.6 0.0
15-3 69.4% 4.0    2.7 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.5% 3.3    1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.3% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 10.0 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 68.4% 57.2% 11.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 26.2%
17-1 2.0% 60.1% 54.7% 5.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 11.9%
16-2 3.8% 43.4% 41.7% 1.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 3.0%
15-3 5.8% 33.5% 32.9% 0.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 0.9%
14-4 7.7% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 5.8 0.0%
13-5 9.2% 19.1% 19.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 7.4
12-6 10.3% 12.7% 12.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 9.0
11-7 10.7% 8.5% 8.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 9.8
10-8 10.6% 5.3% 5.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10.0
9-9 9.6% 3.2% 3.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.3
8-10 8.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.0
7-11 7.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.9
6-12 5.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.3
5-13 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 2.6% 2.6
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.2% 11.9% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.9 3.1 2.6 1.3 87.8 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.8 18.8 62.5 18.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 5.4 30.0 70.0
Lose Out 0.0%