Preseason Rankings
Michigan
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.4#2
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#257
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.3#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.9% 10.6% 1.6%
#1 Seed 28.9% 30.8% 7.5%
Top 2 Seed 46.8% 49.5% 15.7%
Top 4 Seed 66.5% 69.5% 32.9%
Top 6 Seed 77.9% 80.7% 46.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.6% 91.7% 66.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.9% 89.4% 63.2%
Average Seed 3.3 3.2 5.1
.500 or above 93.9% 95.5% 75.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.7% 88.5% 66.2%
Conference Champion 27.5% 29.2% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 2.6%
First Four1.9% 1.7% 3.8%
First Round88.8% 91.0% 64.6%
Second Round76.1% 78.6% 47.7%
Sweet Sixteen52.4% 54.7% 26.4%
Elite Eight33.0% 34.7% 13.3%
Final Four19.5% 20.7% 6.7%
Championship Game11.0% 11.8% 2.8%
National Champion6.2% 6.6% 1.5%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 7
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 35 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 83   Buffalo W 84-69 92%    
  Nov 13, 2021 232   Prairie View W 80-58 98%    
  Nov 16, 2021 41   Seton Hall W 74-64 81%    
  Nov 20, 2021 145   UNLV W 79-59 95%    
  Nov 24, 2021 185   Tarleton St. W 77-55 97%    
  Dec 01, 2021 22   @ North Carolina W 76-74 56%    
  Dec 04, 2021 42   San Diego St. W 71-61 81%    
  Dec 07, 2021 75   @ Nebraska W 78-70 74%    
  Dec 11, 2021 106   Minnesota W 80-63 91%    
  Dec 18, 2021 122   Southern Utah W 82-64 93%    
  Dec 21, 2021 247   Purdue Fort Wayne W 87-61 98%    
  Dec 30, 2021 68   @ Central Florida W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 04, 2022 50   @ Rutgers W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 08, 2022 24   Michigan St. W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 11, 2022 5   Purdue W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 14, 2022 8   @ Illinois L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 18, 2022 16   Maryland W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 23, 2022 30   @ Indiana W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 26, 2022 58   Northwestern W 76-64 83%    
  Jan 29, 2022 24   @ Michigan St. W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 01, 2022 75   Nebraska W 81-67 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 5   @ Purdue L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 08, 2022 53   @ Penn St. W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 12   Ohio St. W 73-67 68%    
  Feb 17, 2022 39   @ Iowa W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 20, 2022 43   @ Wisconsin W 67-62 65%    
  Feb 23, 2022 50   Rutgers W 74-63 81%    
  Feb 27, 2022 8   Illinois W 76-71 66%    
  Mar 03, 2022 39   Iowa W 79-69 79%    
  Mar 06, 2022 12   @ Ohio St. W 71-70 51%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.9 6.9 6.7 4.5 1.8 27.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.1 5.3 4.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.9 4.7 3.1 1.0 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.2 4.6 6.0 7.4 8.7 9.6 10.8 11.0 10.5 9.2 7.1 4.5 1.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
19-1 99.8% 4.5    4.4 0.2
18-2 93.7% 6.7    5.7 1.0 0.0
17-3 75.2% 6.9    4.7 2.0 0.2
16-4 46.7% 4.9    2.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.5% 2.2    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.5% 27.5 19.5 6.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.8% 100.0% 67.4% 32.6% 1.1 1.7 0.1 100.0%
19-1 4.5% 100.0% 58.7% 41.3% 1.1 4.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 7.1% 100.0% 48.4% 51.6% 1.2 5.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.2% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 1.3 6.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.5% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 1.6 5.5 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.0% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.1 3.4 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.8% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.9 1.5 3.3 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.6% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 3.8 0.4 1.6 2.7 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 8.7% 99.3% 8.1% 91.2% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-9 7.4% 96.2% 5.2% 91.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.0%
10-10 6.0% 86.4% 3.6% 82.8% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 85.9%
9-11 4.6% 62.7% 2.1% 60.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 61.9%
8-12 3.2% 30.3% 1.0% 29.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 29.6%
7-13 2.3% 8.9% 0.7% 8.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 8.3%
6-14 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.5%
5-15 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
4-16 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 89.6% 21.2% 68.5% 3.3 28.9 17.8 11.4 8.3 6.4 5.0 3.4 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 86.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.0 96.7 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 90.5 9.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.8 8.2