Preseason Rankings
North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.0#318
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.2#87
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#319
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#295
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.9% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.3 15.5
.500 or above 14.7% 53.8% 13.7%
.500 or above in Conference 24.9% 57.3% 24.1%
Conference Champion 1.2% 6.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 21.0% 7.4% 21.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 2.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 47 - 69 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 56   @ Mississippi St. L 61-82 2%    
  Nov 19, 2021 278   Manhattan L 68-71 41%    
  Nov 20, 2021 146   Iona L 67-77 18%    
  Nov 28, 2021 351   @ Alabama St. W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 01, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 87-69 94%    
  Dec 08, 2021 340   Alabama A&M W 72-65 71%    
  Dec 14, 2021 26   @ Auburn L 65-90 2%    
  Dec 22, 2021 68   @ Central Florida L 62-82 5%    
  Dec 28, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 67-100 0.4%   
  Jan 04, 2022 226   @ Lipscomb L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 08, 2022 164   Jacksonville St. L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 11, 2022 180   Eastern Kentucky L 79-84 33%    
  Jan 15, 2022 334   @ Central Arkansas L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 18, 2022 165   @ Bellarmine L 66-78 17%    
  Jan 22, 2022 251   Stetson L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 27, 2022 110   @ Liberty L 60-76 10%    
  Jan 29, 2022 311   @ Kennesaw St. L 71-75 39%    
  Feb 03, 2022 302   Jacksonville W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 280   North Florida W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 09, 2022 222   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 72-81 25%    
  Feb 12, 2022 165   Bellarmine L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 16, 2022 180   @ Eastern Kentucky L 76-87 19%    
  Feb 19, 2022 226   Lipscomb L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 23, 2022 334   Central Arkansas W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 164   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-77 17%    
Projected Record 9 - 16 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.2 2.7 0.8 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.6 1.3 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 4.7 2.0 0.2 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.4 2.8 6.2 4.1 0.7 0.0 14.2 10th
11th 0.6 3.6 5.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 14.1 11th
12th 1.7 4.3 4.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 13.1 12th
Total 1.7 4.9 8.4 10.9 12.8 13.4 12.2 10.7 8.6 6.3 4.4 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 95.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 80.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-3 47.6% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
12-4 17.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 3.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.1% 0.1
14-2 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-3 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-4 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
11-5 2.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
10-6 4.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.4
9-7 6.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.3
8-8 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.6
7-9 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.7
6-10 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-11 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.4
4-12 12.8% 12.8
3-13 10.9% 10.9
2-14 8.4% 8.4
1-15 4.9% 4.9
0-16 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%